The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
This slate features the 20 teams that did not play on Christmas Day, which means we’re lacking star power. That’s especially true at point guard — we won’t have Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard or Ben Simmons. Kyle Lowry is also expected to sit out.
That leaves John Wall and Kemba Walker as the top two remaining options, and both look like excellent values on DraftKings with Bargain Ratings of at least 98%.
Wall has been the superior option recently, averaging 1.23 DraftKings points per minute, while Walker has the more appealing matchup against the Nets. Walker has been mired in a deep shooting slump in December, making just 37.4% of his shots from the field and 29.5% of his shots from 3-point range, but his usage rate of 30.8% still ranks ninth in the league. He’s going to be a massive value when his jump shot eventually starts falling again.
Value
Fred Van Vleet should draw another start if Lowry is ruled out. Van Vleet been a massive value with Lowry out of the lineup, averaging 29.83 FanDuel points and a +8.5 Plus/Minus in four contests.
Van Vleet has been priced up a bit recently, but his $5,600 salary on FanDuel does come with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He also has a strong individual matchup against the Heat as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.80.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray isn’t exactly priced like a stud but still deserves some stud consideration on DraftKings. He leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends — no one else at the position has more than 10 — and his $6,300 price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
De’Aaron Fox is an intriguing option in the Kings’ matchup against the Clippers. Both teams have played fast this season, and the resulting total of 238.5 points is the top mark on the slate by more than 10 points. Fox has also increased his fantasy production over the past month, averaging an elite 1.30 FanDuel points per minute.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Victor Oladipo returned to the Pacers’ lineup recently and has been a full go over his past three games. He’s played at least 36 minutes in each of those three, so he seems underpriced at $8,500 on FanDuel. Oladipo has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.13 with a comparable salary as a member of the Pacers (per our Trends tool), and his current price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 86% on FanDuel.
He’s also in one of the best spots of the day against the Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league. The Pacers’ implied team total of 111.75 does exactly jump of the page, but it does represent a sizable increase when compared to their season average (106.1).
Value
The Timberwolves remain without Jeff Teague, which means Josh Okogie should continue to reap the benefits. He’s played at least 25 minutes in each of the past four games and has averaged 20.95 FanDuel points per game over that span. He’s priced just $100 above the minimum on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Lou Williams hasn’t been asked to do as much for the Clippers this season but is still capable of blowing up. He’s scored 38.9 or more FanDuel points in two of his past three games and is in a wonderful spot against the Kings. The Clippers own the highest implied team total on the slate at 122.0, and Williams’ $5,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Josh Richardson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on DraftKings and should continue to benefit from the absence of Goran Dragic. Richardson has seen a usage bump of +1.7% with Dragic out of the lineup this season, resulting in an average of 0.92 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 36.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him a solid value at $6,700.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard stands in his own tier at small forward. He’s been fantastic over his past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.77 on DraftKings, and should continue to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Lowry’s absence. Leonard has led the team with a usage rate of 32.1% in five games without Lowry this season, resulting in an average of 50.2 DraftKings points per game.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2).
Leonard’s 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He should be a staple of cash game lineups and has plenty of upside for guaranteed prize pools as well.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica has been up and down recently but should continue to benefit from the absence of Marvin Bagley. Bjelica averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with Bagley off the floor this season and has played at least 29.5 minutes in three of his past five games. He’s a pretty cheap way to get exposure to the best game on the slate, particularly on DraftKings at $4,800.
Fast Break
Trevor Ariza has played huge minutes for the Wizards since being acquired from the Suns, and that doesn’t figure to change with Otto Porter already ruled out. Ariza played at least 36 minutes and returned value in three of his past four games, with the only exception coming on the second leg of a back-to-back after playing a triple overtime game in their previous contest.
Danilo Gallinari has been a nice fantasy option over the past month, averaging 1.08 FanDuel points per minute. He’s also posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over that span, yet his salary has increased by only $300. He’s a strong target at $7,300 against the Kings.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the lone super-stud available, which should make him one of the highest-owned players of the day. He’s been ridiculously good over the past month, posting a 100% Consistency Rating and averaging 1.73 DraftKings points per minute on DraftKings, and he’s averaged a +7.28 Plus/Minus over his past 10 games. That’s pretty remarkable considering he typically caries the highest salary in fantasy.
Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23), Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
It’s hard not to like him against the Mavericks, who have struggled with opposing big men all season. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.69, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 112.75 ranks fifth on the slate. They’ll also be without Nikola Mirotic, and Davis has averaged 60.97 DraftKings points per game with Mirotic out of the lineup.
Leonard might be the better pure value on the slate, but no one can match the combination of floor and ceiling that Davis provides on a nightly basis.
Value
Rodions Kurucs looks like one of the best values on FanDuel, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s scored at least 32.0 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and should continue to see a bump in playing time with Allen Crabbe out of the lineup. He’s averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute this season, so there’s no reason to expect much of a decline in value given his projected workload (29.4 minutes).
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon has been priced down to $7,000 on FanDuel, which is his lowest price tag of the season. That could make him a nice buy-low target against the Suns, who currently rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. He’s also been better from a fantasy perspective over his past three games, scoring at least 30.3 FanDuel points in each despite shooting just 35.3%.
Montrezl Harrell has been one of the worst values on DraftKings over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -7.06. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,900 over that time frame, and his current $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. The Kings have also been one of the worst teams in the league against opposing big men, giving Harrell an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48. This is a prime get-right opportunity.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has looked like a man among boys at times this season, which could be the case again against the Wizards.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andre Drummond
Washington has been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league with Dwight Howard out of the lineup this season, which plays right into Drummond’s biggest strength. The matchup results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.70 on DraftKings, where his $9,200 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein looks like a massive value considering his matchup against the Clippers, who have struggled against opposing big men all season, giving WCS an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.09 on DraftKings. He’s also played at least 31.5 minutes in each of his past three games, and a lack of playing time has really been the only thing that has stopped him this season.
Cauley-Stein has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute, so he should continue to provide positive results as long as he’s on the floor.
Fast Break
The center position is normally filled with values on DraftKings, but that’s not really the case on Wednesday. In fact, FanDuel features three stud-caliber players who look like excellent options at their current price tags:
- Karl-Anthony Towns: $9,100 (90% Bargain Rating)
- Nikola Vucevic: $8,900 (75% Bargain Rating)
- Myles Turner: $7,300 (98% Bargain Rating)
Towns and Vucevic also have elite matchups against the Bulls and Suns, respectively, while Turner has provided an average Plus/Minus of +5.96 over his past 10 games.
Hassan Whiteside is a volatile fantasy producer, but it’s hard to ignore him at $6,600 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his current salary.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Kings C Willie Cauley-Stein
Photo Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
