The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 12-game NBA slate starting at 7 p.m. ET
Point Guard
Stud
The weird season continues for Russell Westbrook. He’s posted a usage rate of 28.6% or less in six of his past seven games, but his decreased workload on the offensive end appears to have had a drastic impact on his defensive numbers. He’s currently averaging a league-best 2.5 steals per game, and he’s recorded at least four steals in five of his past six contests. That’s allowed him to maintain fantasy value despite seeing a decline in points and assists per game.
He’s in an excellent spot against the Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season. The Thunder’s resulting implied team total of 119.75 ranks second on the slate, and Westbrook’s 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings. He still has one of the safest floors in fantasy even if he hasn’t displayed the same ceiling this season.
Value
Jeff Teague has been ruled out for the second straight game, which should result in another start for Derrick Rose. He was only needed for 24.5 minutes in his last game but made the most of his playing time, scoring 29.9 FanDuel points and posting a double-double. He remains priced at a discount on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker looks like one of the best values of the day on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s been dreadful from a fantasy perspective recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.63 over his past 10 games, but he seems like a prime candidate for some positive regression. He’s shot just 33.7% from the field and 24.7% from 3-point range over that span, which are both well below his career marks. Wednesday’s matchup against the Cavaliers could be an excellent spot for him to get right: They rank dead last in defensive efficiency.
There are so many viable PG options on this slate that it’s almost impossible to narrow them down. Here are some rapid-fire thoughts:
- Ben Simmons: He has one of the best matchups of the day against the Knicks, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency. His $8,800 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
- Kyrie Irving: Another PG with a plus-matchup against the Suns. He’s a better value on FanDuel at $9,000.
- Eric Bledsoe: Pelicans-Bucks figures to be one of the best games of the day from a fantasy perspective. Both teams have played at a top-six pace this season, and Bledsoe owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.63 on FanDuel
- Ryan Arcidiacono: His playing time seems locked in given the injury to Zach LaVine. Probably the cheapest viable option at the position at $3,900 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
While Westbrook has cut back on his massive offensive workload this season, James Harden has doubled down on his. Harden leads the league with a usage rate of 37.4%, which would be a new career high, and he’s increased that to 39.7% over his past 14 games. The result has been some dominant fantasy results over the past month: He’s averaged 1.67 DraftKings points per minute and 61.3 DraftKings points per game.
Things don’t figure to be too difficult for him against the Wizards, who currently rank 28th in defensive efficiency. They’re also on the second leg of a back-to-back, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 117.5 ranks fourth on the slate. He’s the best pure value among the stud players on FanDuel, where his $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 60%.
Value
Justin Holiday was limited to just 29 minutes in the Bulls’ last game but should continue to see heavy minutes with Zach LaVine sidelined. He had played at least 38 minutes in each of his prior two games and has averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He looks like a nice value against the Nets, who rank just 24th in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday could very easily be considered a stud option on Wednesday’s slate. He’s been one of the most consistent fantasy assets all season and should benefit from Nikola Mirotic and Julius Randle being out of the lineup against the Bucks. Holiday is currently projected for a whopping 40 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute this season.
The Kings SG situation could be an interesting one to monitor. Iman Shumpert and Bogdan Bogdanovic are currently listed as questionable, and their absences would open up a lot of potential playing time for Buddy Hield. Hield has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with Shumpert, Bogdanovic, and Marvin Bagley off the floor.
Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo is squaring off with Anthony Davis in a battle of fantasy superstars. DFS players will likely have to choose between the two, and you can make a compelling case for both.
The matchup definitely favors the Greek Freak. The Pelicans have played at the fourth-fastest pace and rank just 25th in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 120.0 is tied for the top mark on the slate. Giannis also has the better individual matchup as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.67 on DraftKings.
Giannis has averaged a slate-high 1.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but his overall numbers have been kept down by an average of just 33.9 minutes per game. Giannis has played in his fair share of blowouts this season, but he’s also struggled with foul trouble: He’s racked up five fouls in four of his past five games. He has massive upside if he can avoid foul trouble.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2).
Kawhi Leonard doesn’t have nearly as appealing a matchup against the Pacers, but he should benefit from the Raptors’ current injury situation. They’ll be without star PG Kyle Lowry, and Leonard has averaged 49.25 DraftKings points per game with Lowry out of the lineup this season. He’s priced at $9,700 on FanDuel, which represents a savings of more than $2,000 when compared to Giannis.
Value
The Kings’ last game got away from them very quickly, so coach Dave Joerger decided to save most of his starters for Wednesday night’s contest against the Thunder. Nemanja Bjelica was particularly affected: He scored just 3.50 DraftKings points in just five minutes.
>That said, his fantasy arrow is still pointing up with Bagley out of the lineup, and Bjelica had scored at least 40.0 DraftKings points in two of his three prior contests. He remains a massive value on DraftKings, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
Paul George continues to benefit from a more passive Westbrook. George has posted a Consistency Rating of 92% over his past 13 games and has averaged 47.9 DraftKings points per game. He’ll likely be overlooked once again but is tied for the most Pro Trends at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jonathan Isaac is coming off approximately 34 minutes in his most recent contest and should see a nice boost in value with Nikola Vucevic out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.4% with Vucevic off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. He could be a nice value at $4,100.
Power Forward
Stud
The case for Davis over Giannis on Wednesday’s slate is based on two main factors. For starters, no one in the league plays more minutes than Davis on a nightly basis. His average of 37.0 minutes per game ranks first in the league, and he’s currently projected for 40.0 minutes in our NBA Models. Even though he owns a lower per-minute average than Giannis this season, his sheer volume of playing time has resulted in a superior average of 60.35 DraftKings points per game.
Davis should also benefit from the absences of Mirotic and Randle. Davis has seen a team-high usage bump of +9.6% with both players off the floor this season, resulting in a ridiculous 2.16 DraftKings points per minute over 109 minutes of playing time. That combination of playing time and production is virtually impossible to pass up, especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
P.J. Tucker and Mike Muscala could both be nice values on Wednesday’s slate, albeit for entirely different reasons.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: P.J. Tucker
Tucker is a grinder — he’s played at least 35 minutes in four of his past five games — but typically struggles to fill up the stat sheet. He’s averaged a paltry 0.58 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but it’s impossible to ignore someone with that much playing time potential at $3,600.
Muscala won’t see anywhere near the same amount of playing time but has averaged a much more respectable 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s been a particularly nice value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.73, and could see a few additional minutes if Wednesday’s game against the Knicks turns into a blowout.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has seen his price come down considerably from its peak on DraftKings, and his current $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He should see plenty of minutes with Ibaka out of the lineup and has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute on the season.
Aaron Gordon has been dreadful recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.64 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, his salary has decreased by $700 over the past month, which could make him an intriguing buy-low target with Vucevic out of the lineup.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid doesn’t have the same ceiling as guys like Giannis and Davis, but he’s only a slight step down in that department. He’s also significantly cheaper at $10,200 on DraftKings and $10,700 on FanDuel and owns an excellent matchup against the Knicks, who have struggled against opposing big men all season, giving Embiid an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.39 on FanDuel.
The biggest concern is whether the Knicks can keep this game competitive: They’re currently listed as 12-point underdogs (see live odds here), and Embiid played just 30.25 minutes in their first meeting this season.
Value
The center position is jam-packed with value.
Greg Monroe will enter the starting lineup in place of Ibaka, which makes him a really appealing value option. He’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his near-minimum salary. He’s currently priced at $3,800 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Mo Bamba will likely draw the start for Vucevic and has averaged an elite 1.16 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That said, he’s in a tough spot against the Spurs as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.04, and he’s struggled with foul trouble in his rookie season. There’s very little risk with Bamba at his current salary, but he’ll have to avoid fouls vs. LaMarcus Aldridge to reach his full potential.
Fast Break
Clint Capela could be in line for a big performance against the Wizards, who have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league with Dwight Howard out of the lineup this season. He crushed them for 46.5 DraftKings points in their first meeting this season, and his $7,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Steven Adams has been an excellent value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on FanDuel. He’s in an awesome spot against the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.24.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis
Photo Credit: Bob Donnan-USA Today Sports
