The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has gotten to a point where putting up a triple-double no longer impresses us. That’s exactly what he did in his most recent contest, but the fact that he scored just 12 points on 4-of-18 shooting meant that he actually disappointed from a fantasy perspective.
He’s in an excellent spot against the Pelicans, who rank third in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency this season. The Thunder’s current implied team total of 118.5 is the top mark on the slate and represents an increase of roughly seven points when compared to their season average (111.6). Westbrook’s 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the PG position on DraftKings, where his $10,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
T.J. McConnell has been a nice source of value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on DraftKings. He could be in line for a slightly larger workload with Jimmy Butler not expected to play, which makes him an appealing target at just $3,500. He’s currently projected for 27.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and McConnell has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.77 with a comparable salary and minute projection on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
Fast Break
Emmanuel Mudiay looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has one of the best matchups of the day against the Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season.
Jalen Brunson was arguably the most productive player in college basketball last season and has put his talents on display recently filling in for Dennis Smith Jr. Brunson should earn another start on Wednesday against the Hawks, which is basically the best matchup possible for PGs: The Hawks play at the fastest pace in the league, and opposing PG Trae Young ranks dead last at the position in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM).
Ricky Rubio is coming off a poor game in his last outing, which could make him a good buy-low candidate. He owns an excellent matchup against the Heat, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.20 on DraftKings, and his salary has decreased by $1,000 over the past few weeks. He’s also posted a usage rate of at least 30.8% in back-to-back games, so he has upside in this contest.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Well it finally happened. Jrue Holiday put up a dud for the first time all season in his last outing, ending a truly remarkable streak to start the campaign. That said, he’s in a great spot to bounce back against the Thunder, who rank first in the league in defensive efficiency this season — which is a far cry from how the finished last season without Andre Roberson — but they also play at the sixth-fastest pace. Holiday is also projected for a position-high 39 minutes on Wednesday’s slate and has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute on the season. He looks like a great value at $7,900 given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Kent Bazemore has always been a strong producer on a per-minute basis, and he’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in 2018. His problem has always been inconsistent playing time, but that hasn’t been a huge issue recently with Taurean Prince out of the lineup. He’s played at least 32.5 minutes in each of his past two games and has scored at least 35 DraftKings points in both of those contests. He’s an excellent value on DraftKings at $5,500.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic has seen a nice boost in value with Smith Jr. out of the lineup recently. Doncic has tallied at least 34.7 FanDuel points in each of his past two games and has served as more of the primary playmaker for the Mavericks offense. He’s in an awesome spot against the Hawks as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.31, and his 12 Pro Trends rank second at the position on FanDuel.
Luke Kennard could be a punt option worth considering for the shorthanded Pistons. He exploded for 42.5 DraftKings points in 36.5 minutes in his last game but remains dirt-cheap at $3,500. He’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is projected for more than 31 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him one of the best values of the day on a per-dollar basis.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo was a surprise inactive in the Bucks’ last game but is expected to return to the lineup on Wednesday night. He’s in a tough spot against the Pacers, who rank just 24th in pace and third in defensive efficiency, but Giannis dropped 56.75 DraftKings points on them in their first matchup this season. He’s averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute over the past month — which is the third-highest mark on the slate — and his current $10,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis is also projected for just 9-12% ownership on DraftKings, which only increases his value for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Bojan Bogdanovic — also known as the one who plays for the Pacers — has been a strong value with Victor Oladipo out of the lineup recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on FanDuel and has scored at least 33.4 fantasy points in three of those contests. He’s a strong value at $5,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Paul George doesn’t get the same love as the top SF options when Westbrook is healthy, but he looks like an awesome target on Wednesday against the Pelicans. For starters, he’s been really good recently regardless of Westbrook’s status, posting a Consistency Rating of 91% and upside Rating of 75% over the past month on FanDuel. He also leads the position with 14 Pro Trends in what figures to be the best game of the night from a fantasy perspective.
Justise Winslow has posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.89 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and could be in line for another expanded workload on Wednesday. Goran Dragic has been ruled out, making this the ninth time in 11 games that they’ll be without their starting PG. Winslow has seen a usage bump of +1.2% with Dragic off the floor this season and has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis briefly exited Sunday’s game early with a hip injury but appeared to be all systems go on Monday against the Celtics. He scored 60.75 DraftKings points in roughly 37.5 minutes of playing time, thanks in part to a ridiculous 44.5% usage rate. We probably shouldn’t expect him to put up 34 shot attempts again, but he can certainly improve upon his seven rebounds and zero blocks from that contest.
That said, OKC is an awful matchup. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.21 on DraftKings, and the Thunder limited Davis to just 31.0 DraftKings points in 38 minutes in their first matchup this season. Steven Adams is a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and he guarded Davis almost exclusively in the teams’ first meeting. He limited Davis to just 15 points over 65 possessions, which represents a decrease of -10.1 points per 100 possessions when compared to his season average. Davis is tempting given his Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings, but this is one of the toughest spots he’ll face all season
Value
Kevon Looney should continue to start at center for the Warriors, especially with Andre Iguodala out of the lineup on Wednesday. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season and is current projected for 26.7 minutes, which makes him a strong option at $3,700.
Fast Break
Tristan Thompson will miss at least the next month for the Cavaliers, which should result in a boost in playing time for Larry Nance Jr. He’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the course of the season and looks like one of the top targets of the day at $5,800.
Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marcus Morris
Marcus Morris exploded for 39.8 FanDuel points in the Celtics’ last game and should continue to see an expanded workload with Al Horford and Gordon Hayward out of the lineup. Morris is priced at $5,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has been a major disappointment recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past four games. That said, Jimmy Butler is currently doubtful, and his absence would give Embiid a chance to return to the role he thrived in early in the season. He’s in an elite spot against the Nets as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.47 on FanDuel.
Value
Cody Zeller has been a nice value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.33 over his past 10 games. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of those contests and has increased his fantasy production to 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He could potentially see a few additional minutes to combat the size of Andre Drummond, and his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
Julius Randle should see a bump in playing time with Nikola Mirotic out of the lineup and has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should be one of the highest owned options of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Anthony Davis
Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
