The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Elfrid Payton saw just 24 minutes in the Pelicans’ last game, which they won easily over the Kings. He should return to his usual playing time today against the Los Angeles Clippers and has averaged 1.19 fantasy points per minute through his first two games. He could be a nice value at $6,400 on DraftKings.
Value
Jamal Murray was a disaster in his most recent game, struggling through both foul trouble and a tibia injury while posting just 8.50 DraftKings points. That said, Will Barton will miss a significant amount of time after undergoing surgery on his right abductor muscle, which should ultimately give a boost to Murray’s fantasy stock.
The Nuggets also have one of the best matchups of the day against the Sacramento Kings. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league to begin the season and have allowed the fourth-most points per 100 possessions, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 119.25 ranks second on the slate.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox has taken a big step in his second season, averaging 1.19 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also played at least 37.5 minutes in two of his three games this season, which gives him big upside down the road. That said, he has a brutal matchup vs. the Denver Nuggets, who rank first in defensive efficiency to start the new season.
Ben Simmons is officially doubtful for today’s contest vs. the Pistons, which could make T.J. McConnell an interesting target. He played approximately 25.5 minutes in his most recent contest and averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute last season. He’s priced at just $4,000 on FanDuel.
Patrick Beverley is one of the few PGs who looks like a better value on FanDuel, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. He likely won’t play more than 25 minutes on today’s slate but has averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute to start the season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Pelicans have been an offensive force to start the season, averaging a ridiculous 140.0 points through their first two games. That said, Jrue Holiday hasn’t exactly lit it up from a fantasy perspective, resulting in a salary decrease of $500 of FanDuel since opening night. He looks like a prime buy-low target today vs. the Los Angeles Clippers after scoring 43.2 FanDuel points in just 27 minutes in his most recent contest.
Gary Harris might not be priced like a stud at just $6,500 on DraftKings but has the chance to provide stud-like production on today’s slate. He’s played only two games with Barton out of the lineup over the past two seasons but has scored at least 40.25 DraftKings points in each. He’s one of the best plays of the day across the industry.
Value
Markelle Fultz has the potential to be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Simmons is out of the lineup today. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.4% with Simmons off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. He’s priced at just $4,900 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
JJ Redick is another member of the 76ers worth considering if Simmons is out of the lineup. He’s one of the top candidates to replace him in the starting lineup and has averaged an elite 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with Simmons off the floor this season.
Torrey Craig played 26.5 minutes in his last contest and has posted an average of 0.75 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’ll likely continue to see a healthy amount of playing time with Barton sidelined and is priced at just $3,900 on FanDuel.
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Small Forward
Stud
The addition of Julius Randle in the offseason has done nothing to affect the stock of Nikola Mirotic. He dropped 36 points and nine rebounds in his second game of the season and has now posted an average Plus/Minus of +17.03 to begin the season on FanDuel. He should continue to see plenty of minutes between both forward positions and has averaged 1.56 fantasy points per minute through his first two games. He’s still very affordable at $7,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 60%.
Value
Robert Covington has posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his first three games and played 39 minutes in his most recent outing. He has a chance to see a similar workload today if Simmons is ruled out and has averaged 0.87 fantasy points per minute over the past 12 months. His $5,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
The Clippers have played at one of the slowest paces to start the season, so their matchup vs. the Pelicans is the largest pace-up spot of the day. That bodes well for their offensive production in today’s contest, and Danilo Gallinari could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 28.5% in his last two games and has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute to start the season.
Projecting the minutes for the Sacramento Kings is difficult, but Nemanja Bjelica appears to be one of their preferred options. He’s played at least 27 minutes in two of his three games this season and has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute. He’s an intriguing target at just $4,600 on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis failed to hit salary-based expectations in his last start, but his performance was still incredibly impressive. He scored 54.5 DraftKings points in just under 27 minutes, bring his average production this season to a whopping 2.00 fantasy points per minute. To put that in perspective, he averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute last season when he was the fifth-highest scoring player in fantasy. He could be in for a remarkable season.
This appears to be another good spot for Davis, with the Pelicans’ implied team total of 122.0 points ranking first on the slate. His $11,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Marvin Bagley remains underpriced on FanDuel at $4,700 for today’s matchup vs. the Nuggets. His playing time has been inconsistent, playing 12.0, 32.5, and 23.5 minutes in his first three games, but he’s averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute to begin the season. He’s currently projected for 22.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he doesn’t need to play much more than that to potentially return value on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Blake Griffin might not offer the same ceiling as Davis – no one does – but he might actually be the better value today on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,800 and has averaged 1.47 FanDuel points per minute to begin the season.
Nikola Jokic is listed as a PF on FanDuel and has the best matchup of the day against the Sacramento Kings. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.99, and he’s averaged 1.72 FanDuel points per minute through his first three games. He also posted his highest usage rate of the season in his last game, but his overall production was dragged down by an uncharacteristic lack of peripheral stats.
Center
Stud
There is no shortage of studs worth considering on today’s slate, including Joel Embiid at the center position. He saw a team-high usage bump of +3.4% with Simmons off the floor last season, resulting in an average of 1.47 DraftKings points per minute. His 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein has seen a steady decline in his playing time this season, going from 38.5 minutes in Game 1 to just 22 minutes in Game 3. That said, this could be a good time to buy low on him: His salary has decreased by $400 since its peak on DraftKings, and he’s still averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him a nice value at his current salary.
Fast Break
Julius Randle might not start for the Pelicans, but he’s a large part of their offense. His playing time has suffered a bit in two blowout wins, but he’s averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute to start the season. He’s projected for 28 minutes on today’s slate and has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.03 with a comparable minutes projection (per the Trends tool).
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Nuggets SG Gary Harris
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
