The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
The NBA is back! The season kicks off with a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (-5), O/U: 209
The first game of the 2018-19 regular season is a rematch from last year’s Eastern Conference playoffs. The Celtics were able to win the series relatively easily, despite the fact that they were missing both Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. They’re the favorites to win the East this season after LeBron James fled the Eastern Conference for LA, but Philadelphia is certainly a live dog.
The over/under on this game is set at a modest 209 points, which is not surprising considering that both of these teams made their mark on the defensive end of the court last season. The Celtics ranked first in defensive efficiency while the 76ers ranked third, and Philly was markedly better defensively with Markelle Fultz on the floor. Points should come at a premium in tonight’s contest.
Celtics
The Celtics have arguably the deepest roster in the NBA, so it will be interesting to see how their rotation shakes out in tonight’s contest. That depth starts at the PG position, where Irving rejoins last season’s playoff hero Terry Rozier. Irving is obviously still the unquestioned starting PG – and one of the best players in the league – but don’t expect him to improve on his average of 32.2 minutes per game last season.
The 76ers are also a difficult matchup for PGs – they allowed the seventh-lowest Plus/Minus to the position last season – and Irving posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.23 on DraftKings in three matchups during the regular season (per the Trends Tool). That said, his $7,600 salary is considerably lower than it was in any of those previous matchups and results in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Rozier could be an interesting target on FanDuel: His $4,100 salary comes with a position-high Bargain Rating of 93%. He averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute last season, so he doesn’t need to play much to have a chance at returning value.
Jaylen Brown averaged a respectable 0.86 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings last season, but his fantasy stock could take a hit with the team back at full strength. He averaged just 0.78 fantasy points per minute when sharing the court with Irving and Jayson Tatum; he’s projected for only 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him a tough sell, even at just $5,300 on DraftKings.
Marcus Smart might be the more appealing option on DraftKings considering his Bargain Rating of 99%. His fantasy output wasn’t affected as much by the presence of Irving, largely because his production is based more on peripheral stats (blocks and steals) than scoring.
Hayward will draw the start at SF but is expected to be limited to just 25 minutes for the first few weeks of the season. His season ended last year after just five minutes, so it makes sense for the Celtics to ease him back into action.
We have no real idea what Hayward’s role will look like for the Celtics after serving as the offensive focal point for the Jazz in previous seasons, but asking him to return value at his current salary seems like a difficult proposition.
Tatum will transition to playing power forward this season after playing just 20% of his minutes there last season. That said, the transition could be a major boost to his fantasy stock: He posted better marks at PF than SF in virtually every category across the board (per 82games.com):
His playing time might be an issue – like it will be with basically every member of the Celtics this season – but Tatum appears to have increased upside as a PF.
Marcus Morris will almost undoubtedly average fewer minutes per game this season, but don’t expect that to deter him from getting up a bunch of shots. He was second on the team in usage among Celtics regulars last season despite the fact that he shot a paltry 42.9% from the field. He always has upside for guaranteed prize pools if his shot is falling, and he’s projected for less than 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Al Horford is one of the most underrated players in the league, and he seems particularly underpriced today on DraftKings. Priced at just $6,100, Horford averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.30 with a comparable salary last season.
That said, he has a brutal matchup vs. Joel Embiid, who graded out as the fourth-best center in the league last season per Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM). The 76ers held opposing centers to the fifth-lowest average Plus/Minus last season, but Horford did average 34.88 DraftKings points per game over four regular-season meetings.
Aron Baynes will also likely see some playing time at center and averaged a respectable 0.85 fantasy points per minute last season. He could be worth some consideration because of his projected ownership of 0%-1% on DraftKings.
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76ers
The 76ers’ rotation is a little clearer at this point, which is always a plus for fantasy purposes. Jerryd Bayless, Zhaire Smith and Wilson Chandler are all out with various maladies, and backup PF Mike Muscala was ruled out this morning. It’s possible that only nine players will see the court in tonight’s contest, and Amir Johnson and Landry Shamet aren’t expected to play more than a handful of minutes each.
The big news for the 76ers heading into the season is the addition of Fultz into the starting lineup. His rookie season was interesting to say the least, and he shot just 40.5% from the field after developing a hitch in his jump shot. He improved that number to 43.2% over four preseason contests, and perhaps more importantly, he showed an increased confidence in unleashing it:
Here are Markelle Fultz's jump shot attempts vs Orlando.
He was clearly more confident looking for jumpers than in the preseason opener, taking a few 3s and 6 pull-ups (making 4), which is the main positive. His form isn't perfect, but still looks much better: pic.twitter.com/SntXgGUXU3
— Tom West (@TomWestNBA) October 2, 2018
If he can provide some increased scoring ability, he has pretty big upside from a fantasy perspective. He averaged 3.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists in just 18.1 minutes per game last season, resulting in an average of 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. He looks like a no-brainer on DraftKings, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
J.J. Redick will transition to a bench role this season but is still expected to see plenty of playing time. The 76ers lack perimeter shooting at virtually every position in their starting lineup, so Redick will provide needed spacing when he’s on the floor.
The transition to the bench could also result in an increased usage rate when playing with the backups. Redick averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute with Embiid and Ben Simmons off the court last season but just 0.76 when sharing the court with both.
Speaking of Embiid, he looks like one of the best values of the day on DraftKings at just $8,800. He’s posted an elite Plus/Minus of +7.79 with a comparable salary and he was priced below $9,000 in only 14 starts last season. The matchup against the Celtics is a difficult one – they allowed the lowest average Plus/Minus to the center position last season – but Embiid still managed to average 46.83 DraftKings points per game over three regular-season matchups.
Conversely, the Celtics managed to put the clamps on Simmons during the regular season. He averaged just 31.75 points over four matchups, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -8.74. The Celtics have three of the best perimeter defenders in the league in Brown, Smart and Tatum, so it’s not surprising that he struggled against them.
That said, he did manage to find some success in the playoffs, and his $8,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s also projected for just 21%-25% ownership, so he could be a somewhat contrarian target on a small slate.
Robert Covington is an enigma. In some games, he’ll explode for 50 fantasy points, and the next night he’ll wind up in the single digits. That said, it’s impossible not to like him at just $4,700 on DraftKings. He averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.90 with a comparable salary last season and has massive upside given his ability to pile up steals and blocks.
Dario Saric will likely be another popular value play on DraftKings at just $5,500. He averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.17 with a comparable salary last season, although his numbers were considerably worse when sharing the court with both Embiid and Simmons. That said, he still averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute in that situation, and he needs to play about only 30 minutes to return value at that rate.
One punt play worth considering is TJ McConnell. He averaged 0.82 fantasy points per minute last season and is virtually min-priced on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He should see a decent chunk of minutes due to the 76ers’ injury situation.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-13.5), O/U: 222
This game is definitely the more appealing one from a fantasy perspective. Both teams ranked in the top eight in offensive efficiency last season, and the Warriors played at the fifth-fastest pace in the league.
Thunder
Unfortunately, it appears that injuries will keep this game from living up to the marquee billing. Russell Westbrook is doubtful to suit up after undergoing knee surgery during the offseason. That means we won’t get another grudge match between Durant and him, which is obviously disappointing from a fan’s perspective.
That said, it does create some value from a fantasy perspective. Paul George was a monster in two games with Westbrook out of the lineup last season, averaging a 40.7% usage rate and 1.48 DraftKings points per minute. The Warriors are also a solid matchup, allowing the 10th-highest Plus/Minus to the position last season. There’s a chance that he’s the highest-owned player on the slate, but fading all of the chalk is not necessarily a good strategy if you’re looking to take down a GPP.
The Thunder acquired Dennis Schroder from the Hawks during the offseason, and he’ll likely move into the starting lineup if Westbrook is unable to go. He averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute last season but will almost undoubtedly see a decrease from his career-high usage rate of 30.4%. Still, it’s hard not to like him on today’s slate serving as the Thunder’s No. 2 option. He’s especially appealing on FanDuel because of his Bargain Rating of 86%.
Jerami Grant was excellent last season on a per-minute basis and will have a chance to enter the starting lineup for the Thunder. He’s currently projected for 24.4 minutes on today’s slate, and he saw a usage bump of +3.4% with Westbrook off the floor last season.
Unfortunately, he’ll have to split time with Patrick Patterson, who averaged just 0.62 DraftKings points per minute last season. That said, he is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, which could make him an interesting target. Both guys have a solid matchup: The Warriors allowed the eighth-highest Plus/Minus to opposing PFs last season.
Steven Adams popped up on the injury report with a back injury, and he’s currently listed as questionable for tonight’s contest. We’ll get a more definitive word on his status after morning shootaround, but if he does suit up, he looks like a nice value on DraftKings. He averaged more than 31 DraftKings points per game in four meetings vs. the Warriors last season and is priced at just $5,800.
If Adams can’t go, expect free agent acquisition Nerlens Noel to handle the majority of his minutes. He averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute last season, so he’d be almost a must-play if Adams is out. Even if Adams is active, Noel could have some appeal as a deep sleeper.
The SG position will likely be manned by a combination of Hamidou Diallo, Terrance Ferguson and Alex Abrines. Diallo started the last game of the preseason and was impressive, scoring 19 points while shooting 50%. He likely has the most fantasy upside of the trio, but expect the minutes to be spread pretty evenly.
If you’re looking for a deeper punt play, consider Raymond Felton. He could see a combination of minutes between the two guard positions and averaged a respectable 0.86 fantasy points per minute last season.
Warriors
The addition of Schroder to the starting lineup could have a disastrous affect on the Thunder’s defense. They were a subpar unit without Andre Roberson to begin with, allowing 111.7 points per 100 possessions with him off the floor last season, and Schroder ranked 76th out of 81 qualified PGs in DRPM. Westbrook ranked 10th in that department, so the Thunder have the potential to be a dumpster fire in this contest.
That’s especially good news for Stephen Curry, who will likely be guarded by Schroder for most of the game. He’s priced at $8,600 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.15 with a comparable salary last season. He’s arguably the top stud on today’s slate.
The matchup is not nearly as good for Kevin Durant, who will likely have to deal with the individual defense of George. Durant really struggled in this matchup last season, averaging a Plus/Minus of -6.03 in four matchups. He struggled in general last season with the team at full strength, averaging a Plus/Minus of -2.17.
That said, he’s priced fairly at just $9,000 on DraftKings. He was priced below $9,100 in only three starts last season, and he averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.65 with a comparable price tag. He’s a much tougher roster on FanDuel, where his $10,600 salary makes him the most-expensive player on the slate.
Klay Thompson is what he is at this point: He’s going to shoot the ball at an effective rate but offers very little in terms of peripheral statistics. He’s going to have games where he makes everything and blows up, and he’s going to have games where he struggles to hit 20 fantasy points. He’s always in consideration for GPPs but is far from a must-play.
Draymond Green is the hardest member of the Warriors’ big four for which to make a case: He’s dealing with a knee injury, and Steve Kerr has stated that he’ll likely be on a minutes limit to start the season. Golden State has absolutely no reason to risk him early in the season, so he’s probably not worth much consideration.
Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney figure to be the primary beneficiaries in Green’s stead. Bell was the superior fantasy producer last season, averaging 1.0 DraftKings points per minute, and he owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings. Looney might be the preferred option on FanDuel, where he’s priced at the absolute minimum. Both guys are projected for minimal ownership on today’s slate, which makes them appealing value options.
The Warriors lost both of their top centers from last season, so Damian Jones is expected to draw the start. We’ve seen in the past that role doesn’t necessarily guarantee much playing time, but the injury to Green might open up a few minutes. Jones is priced at just $3,000 on DraftKings, so he doesn’t need to do much to return value.
Last but not least for the Warriors is Andre Iguodala. His minutes dropped to just 25.3 per game during the regular season last year, resulting in an average of 18.25 DraftKings points per game. Its possible they could look to reduce his minutes even further this season and siphon some playing time to guys such as Quinn Cook and Jonas Jerebko.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Dennis Schroder
Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
