The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
The top two PG options, Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry, are squaring off against each other in Memphis. The matchup is not ideal from a fantasy perspective, with both teams ranking in the top six in defensive efficiency this season. The Grizzlies have also played at the slowest pace in the league, so this game features the lowest total of the day at 208.5.
If you do want to target one of the PGs from this game, Conley seems like the preferred option on DraftKings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games, and his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. The Raptors have also played at the 10th-fastest pace this season, giving Conley a solid pace differential (paceD) of +6.0.
Value
Victor Oladipo will miss at least two more games, which makes Darren Collison an intriguing option against the Suns. He’s coming off an excellent game on Monday, scoring 36.25 DraftKings points in 26 minutes, and the Suns rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Collison’s price has also decreased by $200, and his $4,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Fast Break
Bettors have been hammering the over for Tuesday’s Lakers-Nuggets matchup, causing the total to increase by six full points. It seems wise to grab some exposure to that game.
One way to do it is by targeting the Nuggets’ backcourt. They could be without Gary Harris, which would increase the appeal for both Monte Morris and Jamal Murray. Murray is the superior fantasy player, averaging 0.95 DraftKings points per minute, but Morris is significantly cheaper across the industry. Both players have strong individual matchups, with each owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of at least +3.00 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker has been a nice source of value recently on FanDuel, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past six games. He remains affordable at $8,500, giving him a Bargain Rating of 81%, and leads all players at the position with 12 Pro Trends. No SG has averaged more fantasy points per minute than him on FanDuel this season, and no one at the position is projected for more than his 37 minutes on Tuesday. That’s a nice combination.
Value
The Heat have arguably the day’s best matchup against the Hawks, who currently rank first in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. Miami’s resulting implied team total of 115.75 is highest on the slate and represents an increase of more than seven points when compared to their season average (108.4). They’re also still without Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson, so they’re definitely a team to target.
One way to get some cheap exposure is by targeting Rodney McGruder on FanDuel (75% Bargain Rating) or Wayne Ellington on DraftKings (90% Bargain Rating). Both players are currently projected for more than 33 minutes in our Models.
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr. has failed to return value in each of his past three games on DraftKings, which has caused his salary to decrease by $800 over that time frame. He’s currently priced at $6,500, which could make this an excellent buy-low opportunity. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season and has played at least 36 minutes in six straight games.
Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Reggie Bullock
On the other side of the same matchup, Reggie Bullock could deserve some consideration on DraftKings, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s not a particularly effective player, averaging just 0.64 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but he’s played at least 31 minutes in five of his past six games.
Small Forward
Stud
Tuesday’s slate is light on star power, which should make LeBron James a popular target. That said, he’s been pretty disappointing recently from a fantasy perspective, averaging a Plus/Minus of -3.32 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He’s also posted a Consistency Rating of just 69% over the past month, which makes him tough to trust in cash games.
The Nuggets currently rank fifth in defensive efficiency, so this will be another tough test for LeBron. He’s a tempting fade candidate given his projected ownership of 17-20% on DraftKings and 21-25% on FanDuel, but this is still LeBron James. He can obviously go off against anyone and owns the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate. You’re playing with fire any time you fail to roster him, especially on a slate with limited stud options.
Value
Justin Winslow has come off the bench in each of his past two games, but that hasn’t stopped him from playing at least 28.5 minutes in both contests. If he’s going to continue to play that much, he looks like a really nice value at $4,200 on DraftKings.
He’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s seen a usage bump of +3.2% with Dragic and Johnson off the floor this season.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince was outstanding to start the season but has hit a bit of a rough patch. His fantasy production has decreased to 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but his salary has decreased accordingly: He’s seen a monthly salary change of -$1,500 on DraftKings, and his current $5,200 price tag is his lowest of the season. He’s an interesting buy-low option.
Trevor Ariza is playing all the minutes he can handle right now, seeing at least 36 minutes in each of his past four games. He’s currently projected for 39.5 minutes in our Models, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. He’s priced at $4,800 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.68 (per the Trends tool).
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin is putting together an excellent season for the Pistons, averaging 24.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game through his first 17. The result is an average of 46.63 DraftKings points per game, which is the best mark of his career.
He’s in a nice spot against the Knicks, who rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season. The Pistons’ implied team total of 113.75 points ranks second on the slate, and Griffin owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.03 on FanDuel.
Value
JaMychal Green saw 33.5 minutes two games ago, but is coming off just 19 minutes in his most recent contest. That makes him a tough option to peg against the Raptors. Still, he did manage to post a positive Plus/Minus despite the low minute count in his last game and has averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He probably doesn’t need to play a ton to return value at his current $4,300 salary, and he has big upside if he does.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis should continue to benefit from the absence of Oladipo. Sabonis has seen a usage bump of +2.1% with Oladipo off the floor this season, resulting in an elite average of 1.35 FanDuel points per minute. Sabonis has unsurprisingly thrived in four games with Oladipo out of the lineup, averaging 35.43 FanDuel points and a +4.4 Plus/Minus.
Thaddeus Young doesn’t have nearly the same upside as Sabonis, but Young might be a better pure value at $4,100 on DraftKings. He failed to return value in his last game, where a blowout limited him to just 22.5 minutes, but posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.81 over the previous four contests.
Center
Studs
The center position is loaded compared to the rest of the positions on this slate. It starts with Andre Drummond, who has looked like a man among boys at times this season.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andre Drummond
Drummond has posted six games with at least 20 points and 20 rebounds, and no one else has managed more than 20 (per Basketball Reference). The Knicks have struggled against opposing centers this season, giving Drummond an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.73, and his $9,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Nikola Jokic hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Drummond this season but has actually averaged more fantasy points per minute. Jokic is in one of the best spots of the day against the Lakers as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.01 on FanDuel. He would also get a major boost if Harris is ruled out: Jokic has seen a usage increase of +12.2% with both Harris and Will Barton off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.53 FanDuel points per minute.
Jokic is a prototypical boom-or-bust guy, which makes him an ideal candidate for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Bam Adebayo has seen a nice spike in minutes recently and is coming off a season-high 36.5 in his last game. He exploded for more than 50 FanDuel points in that contest and is in an excellent spot against the Hawks, who rank dead last in rebound rate this season. Adebayo has nice upside at $4,600 on FanDuel if he sees a healthy workload.
Fast Break
Adebayo’s breakout came at the expense of Hassan Whiteside, who was limited to just 12 minutes in their last game. That said, Whiteside did struggle with foul trouble, so it’s reasonable to expect him to return to his normal workload. He doesn’t play as many minutes as the top center options, but his average of 1.58 FanDuel points per minute over the past month is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. He’ll likely command lower ownership than usual but has significant upside.
David Fizdale appears to change his rotation on almost a nightly basis, but Enes Kanter appears to be in his good graces at the moment. Kanter has played at least 33 minutes in each of the past two games, and he unsurprisingly crushed fantasy value in those contests. If he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced at $6,800 on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: LeBron James
Photo credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
