The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has failed to return value in each of his past two games, which is surprising considering he was playing without Paul George. That said, his last contest was against the Grizzlies, who have been arguably the toughest matchup in fantasy this season. We can give him a pass on that one.
His matchup on today’s slate is much stronger. He’s taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 117.75 ranks second on the slate. He leads the PG position with a whopping 16 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.13 (per the Trends tool).
He also figures to benefit if George is forced to miss his fourth straight game. George is currently listed as questionable, and Westbrook has seen a usage bump of +3.2% with him off the court this season.
Value
Darren Collison is one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s been a strong source of value recently, scoring at least 29.0 DraftKings points in eight of his past nine games, and he has a great matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls. He should also benefit from the Pacers’ current injury situation. They’ll be without Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis on today’s slate, and Collison has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in four games without both players this season.
Fast Break
The top implied team total today belongs to the Timberwolves, which makes Jeff Teague an appealing option. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Damian Lillard is an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He has a brutal matchup vs. the Grizzlies but has been priced down to just $8,100 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Lillard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.53 with a comparable salary. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings and should also command modest ownership at best.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has gone through a mini slump recently but appears to have gotten back on track. He’s scored at least 63.75 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, including a whopping 95.25 DraftKings points two games ago vs. the Heat. He posted a usage rate of at least 49.5% in both contests, so he continues to dominate the ball at an unparalleled level.
That said, he’s in a tough spot today vs. the Toronto Raptors. He’ll likely see the individual defense of Kawhi Leonard, who was able to put the clamps on him in their first meeting. Harden posted a Plus/Minus of -21.33 in that contest, which is one of his worst marks of the entire season. He still carries appeal as a contrarian option for GPPs – particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93% — but there are better options for cash games.
Value
Evan Fournier is underpriced at $5,500 on FanDuel for today’s contest vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s scored at least 30.6 FanDuel points in six of his past nine games, and the Magic are in one of the largest pace-up spots of the day.
Fast Break
Josh Okogie is a cheap way to get some exposure to the Timberwolves on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 25.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That should be enough playing time for him to potentially pay off his $3,700 salary.
Joel Embiid remains out for the 76ers, which makes Jimmy Butler an appealing target. He’s averaged 36.97 DraftKings points per game in eight contests without Embiid this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.8 on DraftKings. He’s underpriced at $7,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has had to sacrifice some of his offensive game with the addition of DeMarcus Cousins, but he remains one of the best scorers in the game. He should see a few additional shot attempts today with Klay Thompson out of the lineup. Durant has increased his usage rate by 6.0% with Thompson off the court since Cousins returned to the lineup on January 18, which gives him some additional upside. He’s also been priced down to $9,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 83%.
Value
Bruno Caboclo doesn’t offer much in terms of upside, but he’s locked into a big role right now for the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s currently projected for 27 minutes and has averaged 0.76 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which makes him a strong target at his current price point across the industry.
Fast Break
Ben Simmons has SF eligibility on DraftKings, which increases his appeal on today’s slate. He’s played huge minutes for the shorthanded 76ers in their last two games, logging at least 40.5 minutes in each, and he’s responded with at least 54.25 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s an elite value on DraftKings at $8,400 given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Gordon Hayward isn’t playing huge minutes for the Celtics right now – he’s projected for just 23.6 on today’s slate – but he’s still averaged a strong 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s priced very reasonably across the industry, which makes him an appealing value play at the position.
Power Forward
Stud
Sticking with the 76ers, Tobias Harris is another player who should benefit from the continued absence of Embiid. He’s averaged 38.6 minutes per game in five games without Embiid this season, resulting in an average of 41.45 DraftKings points per game. He’s a strong target across the industry, but his $7,400 salary on DraftKings makes him a particularly nice target there.
Value
Serge Ibaka was so good for the Raptors prior to the trade deadline, but he’s been an afterthought after the addition of Marc Gasol. He’s logged 20 minutes or less in each of his past three games, which has obviously severely hindered his fantasy stock. That said, it’s hard to envision him playing such a reduced role for the remainder of the season, and his salary has decreased by $2,000 over the past month on FanDuel. His current $4,700 price point results in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay that off given his average of 1.1 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon has been a steady contributor recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games on DraftKings. He’s in a nice spot today against a decimated 76ers frontcourt, and his $6,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Draymond Green is another member of the Warriors who could see a bump in value today with Thompson out of the lineup. No one has seen a larger boost in fantasy production with Thompson off the court than Green, who has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in that situation since January 18. Kevon Looney has also been ruled out for tonight’s contest, so Green could see a few additional minutes.
Center
Stud
It’s hard to ignore what Karl-Anthony Towns has been doing recently. He’s scored at least 55.5 DraftKings points in each of his past four games, and he’s topped 70 DraftKings points in three of them. That said, his salary has actually decreased a bit on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Thunder. It’s an appealing matchup as well, giving Towns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.01. He’s a strong option to pay up for on today’s slate.
Value
Kyle O’Quinn is projected for only a handful of minutes on today’s slate, but that’s all he needs to do some serious damage at his current salary. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season and is in an elite spot vs. the Chicago Bulls. They’ve struggled both defensively and on the glass this year, giving O’Quinn an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.62 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas is coming off more than 32 minutes in his last game, which is his highest mark as a member of the Grizzlies. He has huge upside if he’s going to play that much moving forward given his average of 1.43 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s an excellent value today on DraftKings, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Myles Turner has struggled a bit recently, but he’s in a wonderful spot to get right today vs. the Bulls. His salary has decreased by $800 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $5,700 price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s an awesome buy-low target, although he is expected to be chalky for GPPs.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: 76ers G Ben Simmons (25) & F Tobias Harris (33)
Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
