The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins will miss his second straight game for the Golden State Warriors, which makes Stephen Curry a strong option at $9,400 on FanDuel. Curry has seen a usage bump of +6.0% with Cousins off the court since he joined the rotation on January 18, resulting in an average of 1.30 FanDuel points per minute. He scored 55.4 FanDuel points yesterday sans Cousins and is in a strong spot tonight vs. the Timberwolves. They rank just 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Warriors’ resulting implied team total of 118.0 ranks fourth on the slate.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, the Timberwolves are going to be extremely shorthanded. Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose have already been ruled out, which should result in another start for Tyus Jones. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Jones has averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.90 with a comparable minutes projection on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). Jones is also priced at just $4,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
The Bucks have a juicy matchup tonight vs. the Lakers and will be without both Malcolm Brogdon and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That makes Eric Bledsoe a very strong option at just $6,400 on DraftKings. He’s seen a usage bump of +5.6% with both Giannis and Brogdon off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.44 DraftKings points per minute. The Bucks’ implied team total of 120.5 also ranks first on the slate. Bledsoe is tough to fade on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Rajon Rondo has been a solid source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.51 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He should get the chance to command a large workload tonight with LeBron James out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with LeBron, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball off the court this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Today’s slate is loaded with big name injuries, so James Harden could actually fly a bit under the radar vs. the Atlanta Hawks. It’s an outstanding matchup, as the Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. The result is a pace differential of +5.9, and Harden has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.99 on DraftKings in comparable pace-up situations. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.93 is also one of the top marks at the SG position. He makes a lot of sense for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Alex Caruso has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him an appealing option at just $3,600 for the shorthanded Lakers. He’s scored at least 29.75 DraftKings points in three straight games and could see big minutes on today’s slate if Josh Hart is ultimately ruled out (he’s currently questionable). Either way, Caruso is too cheap on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell is coming off 58.25 DraftKings points in his last game and has averaged an elite 1.35 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s in an outstanding matchup today vs. the Sacramento Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.06 on DraftKings, which is the third-highest mark at the position.
Joel Embiid will get the night off tonight for the 76ers, which gives Jimmy Butler a solid bump in value. Butler has played eight games without Embiid since Tobias Harris joined the rotation on February 8, and he’s seen a team-high usage bump of +2.1% in those contests. He’s also averaged 34.8 minutes in those games, and he’s accumulated 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has seen a big decline in fantasy production recently. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of -3.34 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s averaged just 1.15 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Those numbers are crazy low for one of the best players in basketball.
That said, his salary has decreased by $700 over that time frame on FanDuel, which makes him an interesting buy-low target today with Cousins out of the lineup. Durant has seen a usage bump of +2.6% with Cousins off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.21 FanDuel points per minute. He’s coming off just 31.5 FanDuel points without Cousins in his last game, which should keep his ownership modest on today’s slate.
Value
Nikola Mirotic recently moved into the starting lineup to replace the injured Brogdon, and he has the potential to see a few additional minutes on today’s slate. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel point per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his $5,000 salary on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Bucks, Khris Middleton has SF eligibility on DraftKings in addition to SG eligibility across the industry. That increases his appeal vs. the Lakers, since the SG position is one of the strongest on the slate. Middleton has seen a team-high usage bump of +9.2% with Giannis and Brogdon off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. He’s one of the best values of the day at just $6,700.
It’s tough to peg the Nets’ wing rotation on a night-to-night basis, but Caris LeVert looks like a really strong option across the industry. He’s coming off 31.8 minutes in his last game and has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season. He could smash if he sees a similar workload today vs. the Kings.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis isn’t exactly priced like a stud, but he’s been producing like one recently. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.03 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Clippers, who have struggled against opposing big men all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.23 on DraftKings, which is the top mark at the PF position.
Value
It’s hard to avoid the Bucks tonight, and Ersan Ilyasova deserves some attention at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 25.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him one of the best values of the day at his current salary.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma is going to put up a lot of shots tonight for the shorthanded Lakers. He’s posted a usage rate of 25.9% in 14 games without LeBron this season and led the team with 38 minutes in the only game they’ve played with LeBron, Ingram and Ball out of the lineup. That gives him a nice ceiling at just $5,900 on DraftKings.
Draymond Green is another way to target the shorthanded Warriors on today’s slate. He’s actually shown some signs of life from 3-point range over his past two games, shooting 5-of-8 from downtown, and he’s unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in both contests on FanDuel. If he can continue to provide just a little value with his scoring numbers, he does enough in all the other categories to return value.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has been limited to less than 30 minutes in each of his past two games, which the Timberwolves have lost by a combined 35 points. That said, he’s averaged an elite 1.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and should see a healthy usage rate tonight with Teague and Rose out of the lineup. He also owns a strong matchup vs. the Warriors, who have struggled against opposing centers all season. He leads the position with a whopping 16 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s also projected for just 13-16% ownership, which increases his appeal for GPPs.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein isn’t playing big minutes at the moment, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in nine straight games on DraftKings. He’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who have been eviscerated by opposing centers this year. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.14 on DraftKings, which is the top mark at the position.
Fast Break
Boban Marjanovic could draw the start at center today for the 76ers, which makes him an appealing value at just $4,100 on DraftKings. His current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s averaged a ridiculous 1.49 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s averaged 22.3 minutes per game with Embiid out of the lineup since joining the 76ers and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +14.1 in those contests.
Myles Turner is coming off 45.5 FanDuel points in his most recent game and benefits from the same elite matchup as Sabonis vs. the Clippers. He’s playing more minutes recently, logging at least 31 in six of his past seven games, and has averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s underpriced across the industry at his current salary.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks SG Khris Middleton (22) and PG Eric Bledsoe (6)
Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
