The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been an outstanding value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.80 on DraftKings. He’s also posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month and has increased his fantasy output to 1.68 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame. Today’s slate is pretty light on superstars, so those marks are really appealing in all formats.
He’s in a decent spot vs. the Orlando Magic, who have been a middle-of-the-pack team in defensive efficiency this season. The Thunder’s resulting implied team total of 116.75 ranks second on the slate. Westbrook is a better value today on DraftKings, where his $11,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.
Value
The Timberwolves have been decimated by injuries at the PG position. Derrick Rose and Tyus Jones have already been ruled out for today’s contest, while Jeff Teague is doubtful.
That opens up a lot of playing time for Jerryd Bayless, who has posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.99 on DraftKings in each of his past six games. He’s averaged a strong 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 37 minutes in our NBA Models. He has a tough matchup vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, who have played at the slowest pace in the league this season, but he’s simply too cheap at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Cory Joseph has started each of the past three games for the Indiana Pacers and has played at least 31 minutes in all three contests. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, who have played at the fourth-fastest pace this season, and he remains affordable at $4,500 on FanDuel. The Pacers could also be without both Victor Oladipo (already out) and Myles Turner (questionable), and Joseph has seen one of the largest boosts in usage and production with both players off the court this season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might be the best pure value at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s also been an excellent fantasy asset recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG position is pretty thin at the top today, with only three players owning a salary above $6,100 on FanDuel. One of those players is Jimmy Butler, who is in an interesting spot vs. the Toronto Raptors. It’s a subpar matchup – the Raptors currently rank seventh in the league in defensive efficiency – but the 76ers’ implied team total of 117.0 still ranks first on the slate. Butler has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games vs. the Raptors this season and has averaged approximately 1.44 DraftKings points per minute in those contests. He’s an appealing target at $7,500 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Terrence Ross has played some really good basketball for the Magic this season and could definitely be moved for future assets before the trade deadline. That said, he’s with the team for tonight’s contest vs. the Thunder, and he’s underpriced at $5,000 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends. Historically, players with a comparable salary and number of Pro Trends have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.85 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
The Celtics are going to be without both Kyrie Irving and Marcus Morris today vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, which makes them a strong team to target. They have two appealing options at the SG position in Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart. Smart is currently projected for more minutes in our NBA Models, but Brown has been the superior fantasy producer over the past month. Both are slightly better values on FanDuel, where each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 77%.
Brandon Ingram is another player who could find himself playing for a new team next week, and he’s played some of his best basketball of the season recently. He’s scored at least 29.0 DraftKings points in each of his past five games, and he remains affordable at $5,900 for today’s matchup vs. the Lakers.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George continues to crush for the Thunder, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.48 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That includes posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past eight outings, yet George’s salary has actually decreased by $100 over the past month. His current $10,200 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and his 12 Pro Trends ranks second at the position.
Value
Gordon Hayward is another member of the Celtics who should see an increase in value today. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.2% with both Irving and Morris off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 27.6 minutes vs. the Cavaliers, which should give him a strong chance at returning value. Hayward is a particularly strong option on FanDuel at just $5,000.
Fast Break
The Knicks are clearly playing for the future at this point, and developing Kevin Knox is a big part of that. He led the team with 35 minutes in their last game and has averaged 0.73 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s very reasonably priced at $5,000 on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Pistons.
Bojan Bogdanovic is another SF priced at a discount on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s seen a bump in usage with Oladipo out of the lineup recently, and his usage only figures to increase if Turner is ruled out as well.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin headlines the PF position today in a great matchup vs. the Knicks. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and he’s averaged a position-high 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off a poor outing in his most recent contest, causing his salary to decrease by $600 on FanDuel. This could be the perfect time to buy low on him.
Value
Marvin Williams has been a reliable source of fantasy production recently. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 85% over the past month on DraftKings, yet his salary has actually decreased by $100 over that time frame. He has a nice matchup today vs. the Clippers, who have struggled against opposing big men all season. They’ve also played at the ninth-fastest pace this season, and the Hornets’ implied team total of 113.5 ranks fourth on the slate.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis will be hard to ignore if Turner is ultimately ruled out for the Pacers. He’s averaged 39.0 DraftKings points per game in five games without Turner this season, and his salary has seen a pretty drastic reduction over the past month. He’s also in an elite spot vs. the Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.38 on DraftKings. Thaddeus Young is also worth some consideration regardless of Turner’s status. He’s slightly more expensive and doesn’t possess the same upside, but his playing time should be more secure.
Serge Ibaka is one of the best values at the position on DraftKings, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s been playing more minutes recently – he’s played at least 31 in four of his past five games – which has made up for a slight decrease in per-minute production over the past month.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid might be the most appealing stud on DraftKings regardless of position. He’s priced at just $10,500, giving him a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s averaged a slate-best 1.76 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also been a monster over his past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.95 and exceeding expectations in nine of those contests. His 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most on the slate, and he offers a comparable median, ceiling and floor compared to Westbrook at nearly $1,000 less.
Value
Kelly Olynyk has been back in the Heat rotation in a big way. He’s played at least 30.5 minutes in each of his past two games and has responded with at least 32.75 DraftKings points in both. Those games have come in tough matchups vs. the Thunder and Pacers, which makes his performances even more impressive. He has big upside at his current $3,900 salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic should be a contrarian target today on FanDuel – he’s currently projected for just 5-8% ownership – but he’s underpriced at $10,000. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, and the Magic are in one of the best pace-up spots of the day vs. the Thunder.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: 76ers SG Jimmy Butler
Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA Today Sports
