The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall headlines the PG position and is coming off a massive game in his last contest. He dropped 79.5 DraftKings points on the Lakers in 42 minutes, taking full advantage of the fact that the team was shorthanded. He likely won’t need to play as many minutes with Trevor Ariza making his season debut, but Wall has an absolutely elite spot against the Hawks.
The Hawks have played at the fastest pace this season, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 119.75 is the top mark on the slate. The Hawks have also struggled against PGs, with Trae Young ranking dead last at the position in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM).
Wall has been priced up quite a bit after his last performance, but his $9,800 salary on DraftKings still comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Monte Morris has been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.33 over his past 10 games. He’s scored at least 28.0 DraftKings points in each of his past four games and is coming off a season-high 37.5 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he looks like one of the better values of the day at just $4,700 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Nuggets, Jamal Murray leads all players at the PG position with a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings. He also owns a position-high nine Pro Trends and has a respectable Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.82 against the Mavericks.
Spencer Dinwiddie looks like one of the best targets at the position on FanDuel, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He gets to face the same Lakers team that just got lit up by Wall, and Dinwiddie has averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He failed to return value in his last game – he played just 24 minutes in a blowout win – but posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his six prior contests.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has somewhat quietly become one of the most consistent scorers in the NBA. He’s scored at least 20 points in 23 of his first 30 games this season, including each of his past eight. That gives him a solid floor, evidenced by a Consistency Rating of 85% over the past month on FanDuel.
He’s in a fantastic spot against the Hawks, resulting in a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.54. He leads all SGs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
Torrey Craig could be another value option worth considering for the Nuggets. He’s played at least 31.5 minutes in three of his past four games and has scored at least 22.25 DraftKings points in all of them. He played a season-high 39.5 minutes in his most recent contest and is currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with a comparable salary and minute projection on DraftKings have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.63 (per our Trends tool).
Fast Break
Jordan Clarkson has thrived in a sixth man role for the Cavs this season, and he’s been particularly effective recently. He’s averaged 33.73 FanDuel points per game over his past three contests, which is not all that surprising given his average of 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He remains affordable at $5,400 with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
The Wizards will likely be a primary target for most people on Tuesday’s slate, but don’t sleep on the Hawks. They’re only 2.5-point underdogs playing at home (see live odds here), and their implied team total of 117.25 ranks second on the slate.
Kent Bazemore has seen a boost in playing time recently given the injury to Taurean Prince and has taken full advantage, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.83 over his past 10 games. Bazemore is an excellent per-minute producer – he’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month – and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.07 vs. the Wizards.
Small Forward
Stud
This slate is light on star power, which should make LeBron James an extremely popular target. He’s coming off one of his worst games of the season, scoring just 25.0 DraftKings points in 32 minutes on Sunday, but he went for at least 61.5 DraftKings points in four of his six prior games. That’s been the story of LeBron’s first season with the Lakers: Inconsistency.
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeBron James
He’s in a decent spot against the Nets, who rank tied for 24th in defensive efficiency this season. That said, they also play at one of the slowest paces in the league, and the Lakers’ resulting implied team total of 114.75 is only a slight increase from their regular season average (113.4). Overall, it results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.70 for LeBron on DraftKings.
LeBron owns the highest median, ceiling and floor projections in our NBA Models, but he’s far from a must-play on Tuesday.
Value
Jeff Green should be a solid part of the Wizards rotation after trading away Kelly Oubre and Austin Rivers. Green should see even more playing time today with Otto Porter currently dealing with an injury. Green has averaged a respectable 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.43 against the Hawks. He’s an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Fast Break
Joe Harris has been a decent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.62 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s been even better over his past two games, averaging 31.8 FanDuel points per game. He’s priced at $4,900 for this matchup against the Cavs, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Kevin Huerter has seen his role increase as the season has progressed and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.07 over his past 10 games on DraftKings as a result. He’s coming off one of his worst games in a while in his most recent contest, which could make this a nice time to buy low on him.
Power Forward
Stud
John Collins’ salary continues to rise, but he still appears to be too cheap across the industry. He’s scored at least 42.5 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, thanks in part to an elite average of 1.20 DraftKings points per minute. He’s in a wonderful spot against. the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.86 on DraftKings.
Washington has been particularly weak on the glass with Dwight Howard out of the lineup, which plays right into one of Collins’ biggest strengths.
Value
Larry Nance Jr. is cut from the same cloth as Collins. He’s a high-energy big man who typically produces when on the floor, evidenced by an average of 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Larry Nance Jr.
Nance is priced at a discount at just $6,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson had a slow start to his season but is starting to turn things around. He’s scored at least 31.3 FanDuel points in three of his past four games and has an excellent matchup against the Lakers. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Markieff Morris left the Wizard’s last game with an injury but is not on the injury report for Tuesday night’s game. He could be a bit of a forgotten man, but has averaged a stout 0.97 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has the potential to see an increase in playing time with Porter out of the lineup as well.
Center
Stud
The Nuggets are dealing with a variety of injuries at the moment, which has forced Nikola Jokic to take on a larger offensive role. He’s posted an average usage rate of 28.8% over his past five games, which is a solid increase from his average of 24.5% over his first 24 contests. Unsurprisingly, his increased usage rate has led to fantasy success: He’s averaged 52.1 DraftKings points per game over that time frame. He’s an awesome value on DraftKings, where his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.
Value
JaVale McGee is currently questionable for Tuesday night’s game with an illness, but he’s in an awesome spot if he’s able to suit up. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.85 against the Nets on DraftKings, where McGee has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games. He seems too cheap at $4,700.
Fast Break
On the other side of the same matchup, Jarrett Allen could be an interesting target. He’s seen a decline in both minutes and fantasy production recently, but the Lakers are an awesome matchup. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.14 on FanDuel, and his salary has decreased by $600 over the past month. He could be an interesting buy-low option.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: John Wall
Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
