The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Happy New Year! Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has been hit-or-miss recently, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -1.24 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his price has decreased by $700 over the past month, which could make this an excellent buy-low opportunity vs. the Sacramento Kings.
They’ve played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 115.5 represents an increase of greater than four points when compared to their season average (111.3). The Kings have also struggled against PGs, giving Lillard an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.00 on DraftKings.
Value
T.J. McConnell could be an interesting option if Joel Embiid is ruled out again for the 76ers. He started the second half of their most recent contest and ultimately totaled 24.75 DraftKings points in 26.5 minutes. He’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage at $3,600 if given significant playing time.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry remains without a timetable for return, which keeps Fred VanVleet squarely on the DFS radar. He’s averaged 26.31 FanDuel points per game with Lowry out of the lineup this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.8 on FanDuel.
VanVleet is priced at a bit of a discount at just $5,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Reggie Jackson has been priced down to just $4,800 on DraftKings, which could make him an appealing target in a pace-up spot vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute and a Consistency Rating of 91% over the past month, so he offers very little downside at his current price tag.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Today’s game between the 76ers and Clippers figures to be the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. Both teams play at a top-eight pace, and the resulting over/under of 235.0 points is the top mark on the slate.
The 76ers would become even more appealing without Embiid, and Jimmy Butler figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries. Butler has seen a usage bump of +7.3% with Embiid off the floor since joining the 76ers, resulting in an average of 1.23 DraftKings points per minute.
Butler would be tough to avoid on DraftKings if Embiid is ultimately ruled out: He’s been priced down to just $6,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Iman Shumpert has been a solid source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.26 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s averaged a respectable 0.78 FanDuel points per minute and posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month. He remains priced at a massive discount at just $3,700, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Lou Williams had a slow start to the season but is starting to look like the player who won the Sixth Man of the Year in 2018. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, including scoring at least 38.9 FanDuel points in four of those contests. He’s been priced up a considerable amount over that time frame but still has upside at his current salary.
C.J. McCollum leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. That’s simply too cheap for McCollum: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.66 with a comparable salary over the past three seasons (per the Trends tool).
Small Forward
Studs
SF seems like a position where most people will pay up today.
It starts at the top with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has scored at least 64.5 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. That said, he’s not in an ideal spot today vs. the Detroit Pistons. For starters, the Bucks’ are implied for “just” 114.0 points, which represents a solid decrease when compared to their regular season average (116.9).
Giannis has also struggled in two games vs. Detroit this season, averaging just 45.5 DraftKings points per game. He still has appeal for guaranteed prize pools – especially given his projected ownership of just 17-20% on DraftKings – but there are better players to target for cash games.
One of those targets is Kawhi Leonard. He should continue to benefit from the absence of Lowry – he’s averaged 45.94 DraftKings points per game with his star running mate out of the lineup – and leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings. He’s also priced at just $8,900 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of $800 over the past month.
Value
Moe Harkless was a late scratch for the Blazers on Sunday, but he’s expected to return to the lineup for today’s matchup vs. the Kings. He’s been excellent over his past two games, averaging 34 minutes and 29.38 DraftKings points, but remains affordable across the industry.
Fast Break
Danilo Gallinari could be an interesting way to get some exposure to the Clippers on today’s slate. His minutes have fluctuated recently – he’s played 28.5, 34.5, 23, 36.5, and 24.5 over his past five games – but he’s still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in four of those contests.
Gallinari has increased his production to 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel.
Wilson Chandler doesn’t offer much in terms of upside but has been a steady producer recently. He’s currently projected for 29.4 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him a relatively safe investment at just $3,800 on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Stud
PF is one of the weakest positions on today’s slate, but Blake Griffin could be an interesting target on DraftKings. His salary has decreased by more than $1,000 over his past five games, and his current $8,500 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
He’s in a decent spot vs. the Bucks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.66, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games vs. Milwaukee this season. Griffin leads the position with 11 Pro Trends and will likely command lower ownership than most of the other studs on the slate.
Value
Luke Kornet looks like an absolute steal at just $3,800 on FanDuel. He’s played at least 28 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 32.9 FanDuel points in those contests. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute on the season, so his fantasy production is not surprising considering his increase in playing time.
The Knicks are clearly tanking playing for the future at this point, so they’ll likely continue to take a long look at Kornet as the season progresses.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Knicks, both Kevin Knox and Noah Vonleh seem underpriced on FanDuel, where each owns a Bargain Rating of 81%. Knox is slightly cheaper and has more offensive upside, while Vonleh has scored at least 30.5 FanDuel points in each of his past five games.
Pascal Siakam has emerged as one of the Raptors’ most important players this season and is coming off 41.5 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. He’s priced at just $6,100 in a tough matchup vs. the Jazz, but Siakam has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.34 with a comparable salary this season.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert has somewhat quietly turned into a dominant force over the past month. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.39 DraftKings points per minute and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.54 over his past 10 games.
Gobert absolutely eviscerated the Knicks in his last game, scoring 25 points and pulling down 16 boards in just 25 minutes. He remains underpriced on DraftKings, where his $8,000 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
There aren’t many appealing value options at the center position today, but Brook Lopez could be worth a look on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,400 and has averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He could potentially see a few additional minutes today to combat the size of Andre Drummond and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.21 over his past 10 games.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic is almost always productive when on the court – he’s averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute this season – but his night-to-night value is ultimately determined by the amount of minutes he plays.
He’s coming off just 21 minutes in his most recent contest, but he struggled with foul trouble in a game that turned into a blowout. He had played at least 32 minutes in each of his prior two contests, which does provide some optimism for today’s slate. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Kings, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.73 on DraftKings.
Nikola Jokic might be the best center option on FanDuel, where his Bargain Rating of 68% is the top mark among the high-priced options. He gets to face the same Knicks’ squad that was just demolished by Gobert, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.28 is the second-highest mark at the position. His 12 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position on FanDuel.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Pistons PF Blake Griffin (23)
Photo Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
