The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook showed no ill effects from his knee surgery in his first game back. He played 35 minutes and racked up 58.5 DraftKings points. He remains really affordable on DraftKings at just $10,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He has a difficult matchup against the Boston Celtics, who ranked first in defensive efficiency last season, but it’s hard not to like him at his reduced price, assuming he’s not on any sort of minute restriction.
Value
Jamal Murray played just 18.5 minutes in his most recent game, but that was likely due to the game being a blowout. He should return to his normal workload Thursday vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, who have been one of the best teams to target in daily fantasy basketball to start the season. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace and have allowed the sixth-most points per 100 possessions. The Nuggets’ implied team total of 120.25 is the top mark on the slate.
Murray also figures to see a boost in production with Will Barton out of the lineup. Murray has seen a massive usage bump of +15.9% with Barton off the floor this year, resulting in an average of 45.68 DraftKings points per 36 minutes. He’s a steal at just $5,900 on DraftKings, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard has been excellent to start the season, averaging 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. He’s in a great spot Thursday vs. the Orlando Magic, who allowed the second-highest Plus/Minus to PGs on DraftKings last season (per the Trends tool).
Lillard owns 11 Pro Trends, which is tied with Westbrook for the most at the position.
Kyrie Irving has been a bit of a disappointment to start the season on FanDuel, averaging a Plus/Minus of -4.05 through his first four games. His usage rate has seen a slight hit this season, but his salary has decreased by $700 on FanDuel since the beginning of the season. This could be an interesting buy-low spot.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Gary Harris played so well in his first game with Barton out of the lineup that it ultimately hurt his fantasy value. He saw just 26 minutes of playing time in a blowout, as he scored only two of his 18 points after halftime.
If he continues to play as well as he did on Tuesday, he’s going to crush in more competitive contests. He’s scored at least 40 DraftKings points in the previous two games he played with Barton out of the lineup over the past two seasons. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Lakers (Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.15 on FanDuel).
Value
The Celtics’ depth has had a major effect on Jaylen Brown to begin the season. He’s averaging just 30.5 minutes per game and 0.57 FanDuel points per minute through his first four games, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -5.92 on FanDuel.
That said, he has seen slightly more playing time in his last two contests, and his salary has decreased by $900 since the start of the season on FanDuel. He’s also shot just 34.1% from the field, so there is reason to believe he can improve moving forward.
Fast Break
Torrey Craig is another member of the Nuggets who figures to benefit from the absence of Barton. He should see a solid bump in playing time — he’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models — and is priced at just $3,800 on FanDuel.
Jordan Clarkson doesn’t typically play many minutes, but he’s extremely involved when he’s on the court. He leads the team with a 30.2% usage rate, which is a big part of the reason why he’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute this season.
No one on the team has seen a larger bump in usage with Kevin Love off the floor, as well. Love will miss the game with a foot injury.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James had a quiet start to his Lakers career, but he started to pick up the pace over his past two games, averaging 1.68 DraftKings points per minute.
He played just 28 minutes in a blowout win Wednesday, and while he should return to his normal workload Thursday vs. the Nuggets, that doesn’t necessarily guarantee success.
The Nuggets have allowed the second-fewest points per 100 possessions to begin the season, including limiting the Warriors to just 98 points. The Lakers’ implied team total of 117.25 points still ranks second on the slate, but this is far from a good spot for LeBron.
Value
Cedi Osman has taken a major step forward with LeBron out of the picture this season, averaging 0.92 DraftKings points per minute and 33.0 minutes per game. He’s played even more in games that have stayed competitive — he’s projected for 35.0 minutes Thursday — and his $5,900 salary on salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
He’s in an interesting spot vs. the Detroit Pistons. The Cavs’ implied team total of 106.25 is the second-lowest mark on the slate, but Osman has a decent individual matchup (Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.50). Regardless, he seems underpriced at the moment given his role for the Cavs this season.
Fast Break
The Magic haven’t exactly been a fantasy gold mine to begin the season — they rank just 28th in offensive efficiency — but Evan Fournier has been one of the exceptions. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute through his first four games and has scored at least 39 fantasy points in his past two games.
Gordon Hayward remains on a minute limit for the Boston Celtics, but he could be worth some consideration on FanDuel at $5,600. He’s seen a price decrease of $1,800 since the start of the season and has averaged 1.04 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Studs
Power forward might be the deepest position on Thursday’s slate. It starts with Nikola Jokic, who has averaged a ridiculous 1.70 FanDuel points per minute to start the season. Much of that stems from an 80.9-point performance against the Suns, but he also managed to put up 37.4 FanDuel points in just 23 minutes in his last game.
He’s in an elite spot vs. the Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.90.
Blake Griffin has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first three games this season and is coming off a massive 77.8-point performance on FanDuel in his most recent contest.
He’s always been a super-talented player when healthy, and he’s averaged 1.59 FanDuel points per minute to start the season. Griffin leads all PFs with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Larry Nance Jr. becomes one of the most appealing value options of the day with Love out of the lineup. He’s always been a strong per-minute producer, averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute last season, and he should see a nice bump in playing time Thursday.
Zach Collins is playing more than expected to begin the season for the Portland Trail Blazers, and he’s averaged a solid 1.04 DraftKings points per minute through his first three games. He has a very fantasy-friendly game — he can block shots and has range out to the 3-point line on offense — and his $3,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon has been hit or miss to start the season, scoring 47.0 DraftKings points or more in two contests and 27.0 DraftKings points or fewer in the other two. He could be a bit overlooked given the other PF options on the slate.
Jayson Tatum looks like a nice value on FanDuel at just $6,700. He’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute this season, and shifting to power forward has given him a major boost to his rebounding numbers. He provided very little value with his peripheral stats last season, so he has more upside on nights when his jump shot is falling and safety on nights when it isn’t.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic has posted some impressive performances to start the season, and has done so against some tough competition. He’s scored at least 48.9 FanDuel points against the Celtics and 76ers, who were two of the toughest teams against opposing centers last season.
He has a much easier matchup Thursday against the Trail Blazers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.42. He has big upside at just $8,200 on FanDuel.
Value
Al Horford very rarely has an eye-popping performance, but he’s typically a pretty safe option. He’s averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute and a Consistency Rating of 100% to start the season, yet he’s priced at just $6,000 on DraftKings for Thursday. He has a decent matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder (Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.29).
Fast Break
JaVale McGee still isn’t playing many minutes after leaving the Warriors for the Lakers in the offseason, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a fantasy asset. He’s scored at least 32.1 FanDuel points in all four games thanks to a ridiculous average of 1.60 FanDuel points per minute.
Tristan Thompson is another candidate to see a few additional minutes for the Cavs. He’s affordable at $4,700 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 81%. Thompson has averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute to start the season.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Nuggets PG Jamal Murray
Photo credit: Brad Rempel- USA Today Sports
