The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guards
Studs
Ben Simmons was dominant in his first game of the season, dropping 19 points along with 15 rebounds, eight assists, four steals and two blocks. The fact that he did it against the Boston Celtics — his personal kryptonite last season — made it even more impressive. He also played just shy of 43 minutes, which gives him massive potential in better matchups down the road.
Today’s matchup vs. the Bulls appears to qualify. The Bulls were the third-worst team in terms of defensive efficiency last season and they’re going to be without arguably their best perimeter defender in Kris Dunn. Simmons owns a position-best 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99%.
John Wall is another point guard priced at a deep discount on DraftKings. He has a salary of just $8,200 and historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.55 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool). He has a subpar matchup against the Miami Heat, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.12, but the Wizards’ implied team total of 109.25 is still strong.
Value
With Dunn missing today’s contest, Cameron Payne becomes one of the most appealing value options on the slate. He’ll occupy the starting point guard spot and averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute last season. That should give him more than enough playing time to pay of his near-minimum salary across the industry.
Fast Break
The point-guard situation for the Lakers is still very much up in the air, but Rajon Rondo is expected to open the season as the starter. He averaged 1.04 fantasy points per minute last season and is priced at just $4,500 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Damian Lillard is another stud point guard with a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings, and the Blazers implied team total of 112.75 points is the second-highest mark on the slate. Lillard has historically crushed with a comparable Bargain Rating, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.45.
Markelle Fultz was a bit of a disappointment in the first start of his career, but there is reason for optimism. He averaged 1.04 fantasy points per minute last season and is currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That should give him a shot at returning value at just $4,500 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Bradley Beal put together the best fantasy season of his career last season, averaging career-highs in rebounds, assists and blocks and steals. He also averaged a career-high 18.1 field goal attempts per game, but saw a decrease in his field-goal and three-point percentages. If he sees some regression in those departments this season, he could be in line for a big year.
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3).
He’s priced at just $6,800 on DraftKings for today’s contest vs. the Miami Heat, which is almost undoubtedly too cheap: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.93 with a comparable salary over the past two seasons. Even though Beal and Wall may clash in real life, pairing them together seems like an optimal start for cash games.
On FanDuel, Zach LaVine looks like the preferred stud option. He averaged 1.01 fantasy points per minute last season – which was identical to Beal — but is priced $1,400 cheaper.
Additionally, no one on the Bulls saw a bigger boost in value than LaVine with Dunn off the floor last season. He increased his usage rate by 1.2%, resulting in an increase of 2.5 FanDuel points per 36 minutes.
Value
The Heat are pretty shorthanded on the wing right now, with Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington and Justise Winslow all unlikely to suit up today. As a result, Dwyane Wade played 26 minutes in their first contest this season, and he still has some fantasy viability at 36 years old. He posted a Plus/Minus of +0.90 in 26 minutes in his first game of the season despite shooting just 3-of-13 from the field. He averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute last season and is priced at just $4,800 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The Bulls will also be without Denzel Valentine for today’s contest, which could open up a few extra minutes on the wing for Justin Holiday and Antonio Blakeney. Holiday is expected to draw the start, but Blakeney is $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel. Both averaged 0.75 FanDuel points per minute last season.
There’s a chance that C.J. McCollum could be a bit overlooked on today’s slate. He doesn’t offer the same value as Beal does on DraftKings or LaVine does on FanDuel, but has arguably the best matchup of the group against the Lakers.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James will make his regular-season debut for the Lakers today, and he could be in line for a huge season if the preseason is any indication. The Lakers played at the second-fastest pace in the league during the preseason, and they played even more quickly with LeBron on the floor, averaging 120.72 possessions per 48 minutes. That will obviously slow down a bit during the regular season, but don’t be surprised if this team plays significantly faster than the Cavs did last year.
More possessions will obviously be a good thing for LeBron, who remains one of the most dominant forces in fantasy. He averaged a usage rate of 31.6% and an assist rate of 44.4% last season, resulting in an average of 1.54 fantasy points per minute.
That said, his current matchup vs. the Blazers isn’t exactly ideal: They ranked eighth in defensive efficiency last season. Al-Farouq Aminu remains one of the better defensive players in the league, ranking seventh among power forwards in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) in 2017-18. LeBron typically gives you one of the safest floors in fantasy, but don’t be surprised if there are some growing pains early in the season.
Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam (43) goes up against Portland Trail Blazers forward Al-Farouq Aminu (8).
Values
Robert Covington seems really underpriced on DraftKings at just $4,700. He didn’t exactly dominate in his first game of the regular season, shooting just 3-of-10 from the field and 2-or-7 from 3-point range, but was still able to exceed salary based expectations. He played 34 minutes in that contest, and his ability to shoot the ball from deep and pile up defensive statistics gives him big upside every time he hits the floor.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson was really involved for the Heat on opening night, posting a usage rate of 26.0%. That was a higher mark than he posted in all but one game last season, and head coach Erik Spoelstra said during the offseason that he wanted to make Richardson a more prominent part of the offense this season. He seems primed to improve upon his average of 0.82 fantasy points per minute last season and should see plenty of playing time for the shorthanded Heat.
Otto Porter posted the highest usage rate of his career last season, but was still able to maintain his elite efficiency numbers from the field and from 3-point range. He’s always appealing on FanDuel because of his ability to rack up peripheral statistics.
Power Forward
Stud
Power forward is the weakest position on today’s slate, with no one on FanDuel owning a salary above $6,800. Bobby Portis is probably the most appealing option at the position considering that Lauri Markkanen will miss today’s contest. He’s expected to enter the starting lineup and averaged an elite 1.13 fantasy points per minute last season. He leads the position in Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Al-Farouq Aminu will likely see a healthy bit of playing time today to try to serve as the “LeBron stopper”, and he averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute last season. He’s priced at just $4,900 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%. Aminu has historically been a nice value with a comparable salary and minute projection, owning an average Plus/Minus of +1.99.
Fast Break
Dario Saric could be an interesting buy-low candidate after putting up a major clunker in the first game of the season. He played just 23 minutes in that contest, but is expected to play closer to 30 on today’s slate.
Wendell Carter Jr., who will draw the start at center today for the Bulls, was a beast during the Summer League, averaging 14.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 3.4 blocks over 28.8 minutes per game. There’s no guarantee that he’ll see that many minutes today, but he still figures to make an impact when he’s on the floor.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid struggled on opening night against the Celtics, but they represent one of the most difficult matchups for centers. He should have no such problems today vs. the Chicago Bulls, evidenced by an unreal Opponent Plus/Minus of +17.64 on FanDuel. Embiid averaged the most fantasy points per minute last season among tonight’s centers, and no one at the position is projected for more minutes. He’s a strong pick for the top overall play of the day.
Value
JaVale McGee has always been an elite per-minute producer, and last season was no exception: His average of 1.24 FanDuel points per minute was more than Jusuf Nurkic’s and the same as Dwight Howard’s. He should have the opportunity to play a few more minutes this season with the Los Angeles Lakers and is projected for just 5% to 8% ownership on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside appears to be in the good graces of Spoelstra at the moment, so we should probably take advantage before he’s banished to the doghouse. He played 33.5 minutes on opening night and averaged 1.35 fantasy points per minute last season. He looks like an excellent value at $7,000 on DraftKings and $7,500 on FanDuel.
Nurkic is probably overpriced today on FanDuel, where he’s $300 more expensive than Whiteside, but his $6,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. His playing time was a bit inconsistent last season, but the Lakers represent a tremendous matchup: He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.90 on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: LeBron James
Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
