The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The point guard position is pretty weak today, with no one owning a salary above $8,000 on FanDuel. Kyle Lowry is the most expensive player, but has posted a disastrous average Plus/Minus of -6.02 over his past 10 games on FanDuel.
That said, this could be a nice time to buy low on Lowry. He has taken a step back as a scorer this season — his usage rate of 19.7% is his lowest as a member of the Raptors — but he’s made up for it by handing out 10.2 assists per game, which would be a career-best. He’s seen a price decrease of $1,000 over the past month on FanDuel, and his current $8,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.
Value
Steph Curry is expected to make his return to the lineup on Saturday, which means Quinn Cook will draw one final start today before returning to the bench. He’s been excellent while filling in for Curry this season, averaging 25.35 DraftKings points over 10 games, and he’s currently priced at just $4,800 on DraftKings.
Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors point guard Quinn Cook (4).
Fast Break
Darren Collison has crushed in back-to-back games without Victor Oladipo, scoring at least 35.75 DraftKings points in both contests. He remains really affordable at just $4,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and has an excellent matchup vs. the Lakers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14, which is the top mark at the point guard position.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.58 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. He’s in one of the best spots of the day against the Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season. The Clippers’ implied team total of 118.5 ranks first on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Warriors’ offense has started to figure it out with Curry on the sidelines, scoring at least 116 points in each of its past three games. The Warriors have won all three of those contests, but they’ll face a step up in class today against the Raptors. They currently rank sixth in defensive efficiency, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 107 points is the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Klay Thompson has been excellent with Curry out of the lineup, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.20 over 10 games. He’s been even better recently, scoring at least 34.8 FanDuel points in each of his past four games, and he played over 40 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s a really strong value on FanDuel, where his $7,000 comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
The game between the Clippers and the Kings is expected to be the best on the slate from a fantasy perspective: The total of 234.5 points is the highest of the day by greater than 10 points. There is also just a two-point spread, so there appears to be value in targeting both teams.
Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard Buddy Hield (24) shoots against the Golden State Warriors during the second quarter at KeyArena.
Buddy Hield has been fantastic for the Kings on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His playing time has fluctuated a bit recently, but he has seen at least 31.5 minutes in three of his past four games. He looks like a nice value across the industry.
Fast Break
Bogdan Bogdanovic could be another interesting target for Sacramento. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven games on DraftKings and is coming off a season-high 34 minutes in his last game.
He probably won’t see that much playing time today — he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models — but he’s averaged a solid 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s reasonably priced at $5,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Avery Bradley has been arguably the least productive fantasy player in basketball this season, averaging a paltry 0.47 FanDuel points per minute. That said, he has been better recently, scoring at least 23.8 FanDuel points in two of his past three games. He’s priced just $200 above the minimum on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Small Forward
Studs
The small forward position is loaded at the top on today’s slate.
It starts with Kevin Durant, who has absolutely crushed in his past three games. He’s coming off 77.7 FanDuel points in his most recent contest and posted a season-high usage rate of 47.8%. Overall, he has a usage rate of 38.5% with Curry out of the lineup, and is projected for a slate-high 39.1 minutes.
It’s hard to fade that kind of potential, but it is a tempting option on today’s slate. Durant’s salary has increased by $1,400 on DraftKings, and he has a difficult individual matchup today vs. Kawhi Leonard. Durant can obviously go off against anyone, but the combination of increased salary, Vegas data, matchup, and projected ownership is somewhat scary.
The Lakers are coming off a blowout loss in their most recent contest, losing 117-85 vs. the Denver Nuggets. They face another tough test today in the Pacers, who rank fourth in defensive efficiency this season. They’ve also played at the fourth-slowest pace, so this is a major pace-down spot for the Lakers.
LeBron James has not had a strong start to his Lakers tenure, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.64 on DraftKings through his first 20 games. That said, his salary has decreased by $600 on DraftKings over the past month, and the presence of Durant will likely result in lower ownership than usual.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2).
Leonard rounds out the stud trio at small forward, and he looks like the best pure value on DraftKings: His $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s also in arguably the best spot of the trio, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.43 vs. the Warriors. The Raptors’ implied team total of 116.5 is also tied for the second-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Tyreke Evans has failed to post a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games, but he still figures to have some fantasy viability with Oladipo out of the lineup. He leads the team with a usage rate of 27.5% with Oladipo off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.99 FanDuel points per minute. He’s shot just 32.5% from the field over his past four games, so he looks like a prime candidate for some positive regression in a pace-up spot vs. the Lakers.
Fast Break
Danilo Gallinari exploded yesterday, scoring 54.0 FanDuel points against the Suns. He’s in another excellent spot today vs. the Kings, and his $6,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Iman Shumpert has small forward eligibility on DraftKings, where his $3,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.44 over his past 10 games, including a Plus/Minus of at least +7.51 in each of his past three. That said, his price has hardly budged over that time frame, which makes him an appealing punt play.
Power Forward
Stud
Montrezl Harrell continues to absolutely smash, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.50 over his past 10 games. That said, his price has risen pretty drastically over the past month and currently sits at $8,500 on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Kings.
It’s a nice spot, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.96, but it’s fair to wonder how much upside he has at his current salary. He’s a much more reasonable play on DraftKings, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings forward Marvin Bagley III (35).
It’s officially Marvin Bagley time in Sacramento. He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of his past two games and has unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in both of them. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him one of the easiest plays of the day at $5,300 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Serge Ibaka failed to return value in his most recent contest, but his 35 minutes of playing time is encouraging. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.57 on DraftKings.
Domantas Sabonis has been a monster with Oladipo out of the lineup recently and is coming off 45.75 FanDuel points in his most recent contest. He has averaged 1.40 FanDuel points per minute with Oladipo off the floor this season and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17 vs. the Lakers.
Center
Stud
The emergence of Bagley is having a negative effect on Willie Cauley-Stein, who has played just 43 total minutes over his past two games. That said, he could be an interesting buy-low target today vs. the Clippers. He could be especially useful against the size of Boban Marjanovic, who could potentially draw the start with Marcin Gortat currently listed as questionable.
Value
Speaking of Boban, he’s impossible to ignore at just $3,500 on DraftKings. He’s an absolute monster when on the court, averaging 1.48 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value at his current salary. He’s also in a great spot vs. the Kings, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.72 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Myles Turner could be another member of the Pacers worth considering with Oladipo out of the lineup. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past six games and is coming off a season-high 45.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. He’s much more appealing on DraftKings, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Pictured above: Marvin Bagley
Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
