The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has been pretty quiet since Game 1 of his series vs. the Denver Nuggets. He’s played 165 minutes since then and has scored only 167.75 DraftKings points, good for an average of just 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. He averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, so Denver has done a really good job of neutralizing him during this series.
That said, Lillard could definitely increase his aggressiveness in a must-win Game 6 at home. His salary has also decreased by $500 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $8,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
Seth Curry has played an increasingly large role for the Blazers in the postseason. He’s coming off at least 26.5 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s scored at least 15.5 DraftKings points in both of them. He’s priced at just $3,000 on DraftKings, so he doesn’t need to produce much more than that to look like a value.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry remains priced at a discount on DraftKings, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. He’s currently projected for 41.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark at the PG position, and he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season. Lowry has also historically provided solid value with a comparable salary, posting an average Plus/Minus of +1.31 (per the Trends tool).
Ben Simmons is getting killing in the media for his performance in his last game, and rightfully so. He scored just seven points on five shot attempts while committing five turnovers in 25.2 minutes. He’s yet to post a positive Plus/Minus in this series vs. the Raptors.
Still, his salary has decreased by $1,900 over the past month on FanDuel, and he should command lower ownership at the position than guys like Lillard and Lowry. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel. That makes him an appealing pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jimmy Butler has been the 76ers’ best player this series. Joel Embiid has struggled with a host of injuries and maladies, leaving Butler to pick up a lot of the offensive slack. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 28.9% in three of his past four games, and he’s responded by scoring at least 42.25 DraftKings points in all of them.
Don’t expect much to change in a must-win Game 6 for the 76ers. Butler is not the type of person to throw in the towel, so he will do his best to carry his teammates if they’re not playing well. Butler is way too cheap on DraftKings at $8,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
I’m pretty sure that playoff Danny Green is the best 3-point shooter in the history of the NBA. He shot the ball at an elite level during the regular season, draining 45.5% of his 3-point attempts, and he went 5-of-7 from 3-point range in his last game. His track record from his time with the Spurs is also elite:
Unfortunately, he doesn’t provide much fantasy value outside of his scoring ability, but he doesn’t need to do much more than that at his current salary on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,900 and is projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum has picked up some of the slack from Lillard during this series, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.01 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That number is a little inflated by the 4-OT game in which he scored 70.6 FanDuel points, but he’s still been a pretty reliable option recently. His nine Pro Trends are tied with Butler for the most at the position on FanDuel.
Gary Harris has been fantastic recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on FanDuel. His salary has jumped up quite a bit over that time frame, but he still seems a bit underpriced across the industry. His defense on Lillard and McCollum has been massive for the Nuggets in this series – he’s held both players below their per-100 scoring averages when matched up against them – and he should continue to play huge minutes as a result.
Small Forward
Stud
There is no reason why you should not be rostering Kawhi Leonard in 100% of your lineups at this point. The 76ers have had absolutely no answer for him on the offensive end, as he’s shooting a ridiculous 59.0% from the field, 40.6% from 3-point range and 83.7% from the free throw line. He’s also posted an average usage rate of 33.3%, so he’s managed to maintain elite efficiency despite commanding a large workload.
The Raptors have also been willing to play Kawhi heavy minutes in games that stay competitive, and he’s currently projected for 42.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Just lock him in and say thank you to anyone who chooses to fade him.
Value
J.J. Redick has been a big fantasy disappointment in this series. He’s actually shot the ball pretty well – he’s making 46.8% of his shots from the field and 41.7% of his shots from 3-point range – but he’s averaged nearly four fewer shot attempts than he did during the regular season. He provides virtually no production in any of the peripheral categories, so he needs to score points to provide fantasy value.
That said, his salary on FanDuel has dropped to just $4,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%. That’s the top mark on the slate regardless of position by a pretty comfortable margin. He’s worth some consideration as a buy-low option.
Fast Break
Will Barton is another potential source of value on FanDuel. He’s priced at $4,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 70%, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 0.91 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s also seen a nice spike in playing time over the past three games, logging at least 25.6 minutes in all three contests.
Tobias Harris leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s been a steady producer all season, and that has continued into the playoffs: He’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating on DraftKings over the past month. His salary has also decreased by $800 over that time frame. He’s a strong option in all formats but should be a core play in cash games.
Power Forward
Stud
Paul Millsap has one of the biggest pricing discrepancies between the sites today. He’s the most-expensive PF on FanDuel at $8,100, yet he remains very affordable at just $6,200 on DraftKings. He’s been an absolute monster recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.05 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. Millsap has also posted a positive Plus/Minus in each game vs. the Trail Blazers during the postseason.
The pricing discrepancy obviously makes him a better play on DraftKings, but he’s still in play on FanDuel as well. He’s scored at least 40.0 FanDuel points in each of his past three games, and he played 41.4 minutes in Game 4 of this series.
Value
Zach Collins has seen a slight uptick in playing time recently, logging at least 20.7 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage from a fantasy perspective when given the opportunity to play. He has solid upside at $3,100 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Has Serge Ibaka returned to fantasy relevance? He played 22 minutes in the Raptors’ last game, despite the fact that he didn’t play at the end of the game because it turned into a blowout. He didn’t exactly take advantage of his minutes in Game 5, scoring just 10.4 FanDuel points, but his increased role is still encouraging for his fantasy potential moving forward. He’s a very interesting GPP target at just $4,600 on FanDuel.
Al-Farouq Aminu was hurt by a lack of minutes in his last contest, but he scored at least 24.5 FanDuel points in each of his three prior games. He’s a nice bounce-back target on today’s slate.
Center
Stud
What Nikola Jokic is doing during the postseason is truly remarkable. He’s averaging 24.5 points, 13.1 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game while shooting 50.5% from the field, 38.3% from 3-point range and 85.7% from the line. He may be the only person on the planet capable of posting those types of numbers over a 12-game span.
He should continue to thrive vs. the Blazers, who have no choice but to play Enes Kanter for long stretches. The Nuggets have unsurprisingly thrived in that matchup, exceeding their scoring average by +6.9 points per 100 possessions.
Value
While Kanter may not be getting it done defensively, that doesn’t mean he can’t be useful for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute this season and has played at least 29.4 minutes in four of the first five games of this series. Like most of the Blazers, he’s coming off a poor performance in his last contest, which has caused his salary to decrease for today’s contest. He’s an elite option.
Fast Break
It’s extremely hard to trust Joel Embiid right now. He’s had to deal with a respiratory infection, the flu and food poising during this series to go along with a knee injury that has bothered him for much of the second half of the season.
Still, Embiid has shown the ability to put up monster stat lines in the past, and he’s priced at just $9,000 on DraftKings. He should command reduced ownership as well, making him a very appealing GPP pivot.
Marc Gasol is the best pure value at the center position on FanDuel, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 61%. He doesn’t offer a ton of upside but has scored at least 23.5 FanDuel points in nine of his past 10 games.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: 76ers C Joel Embiid (21)
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
