Thursday features one-game contests for Game 3 of Raptors-76ers (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).
If you’re new to single-game formats, be sure to check out my previous work on the subject:
- 5 Tips to Dominate the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
- How Does the Single-Game NBA Format on FanDuel Differ From DraftKings?
Toronto Raptors (-1.5) at Philadelphia 76ers, 217.0 total
Studs
Today’s slate features a tough choice at the top between Kawhi Leonard and Joel Embiid. Both players are separated by just $300 at the Captain spot on DraftKings, and they own the highest projected Plus/Minus marks in our NBA Models.
That said, Leonard appears to be the safer choice. He’s been phenomenal this postseason, scoring at least 42.25 DraftKings points in five of his past six games and at least 53.0 DraftKings points in four of them. He’s also coming off just shy of 42 minutes in his last game, compared to just 32 for Embiid.
Embiid has still been the more dominant force on a per-minute basis – he leads the slate with an average of 2.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – but it’s difficult for anyone to overcome that large a gap in playing time.
The 76ers have had absolutely no answer for Leonard to start the series. He’s spent at least 15 possessions against four defenders, and he’s bested his per-100 scoring average against each of them:
- Ben Simmons: 77 possessions, +2.5 points per 100 possessions
- Jimmy Butler: 35 possessions, +19.4 points per 100 possessions
- Tobias Harris: 19 possessions, +46.5 points per 100 possessions
- James Ennis: 15 possessions, +2.3 points per 100 possessions
The Raptors have struggled offensively at times during this series, but Leonard is going to get his regardless of who is lined up in front of him.
The Vegas odds have also moved from Philly -1.5 to Toronto -1.5, which further pushes the needle in Leonard’s favor.
Of course, there’s no reason you can’t pair Embiid and Leonard together, and Embiid should command lower ownership as a Captain. He’s struggled through his first two games this series, scoring just 29.25 and 26.0 DraftKings points, but his shooting numbers suggest he’s due for some regression. He’s shot just 28.0% from the field over that time frame, which is well below his regular-season average of 48.4%. This could be a nice opportunity to buy low on him.
Pascal Siakam also deserves some stud consideration, although I would be hesitant to play him at Captain. He looks best served as a complement to Leonard or Embiid, who both possess greater upside. Siakam has a strong positive correlation with Leonard, so there is no issue with playing them in the same lineup.
Mid Tier
There are strong mid-range options to choose from in this contest. The 76ers rely heavily on their talented starting five, which puts each option in play.
Simmons stands out as one of the strongest targets. He’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month (second to only Embiid and Leonard among the starting options), and he’s coming off more than 44 minutes in Game 2. He hasn’t exactly dominated in this series, but he’s capable of scoring fantasy points in a variety of ways.
On the Raptors’ side, it’s hard to ignore Kyle Lowry at $7,800 on DraftKings. He led the Raptors with 42.4 minutes in their last game, and he’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s taken a bit of a backseat to Leonard and Siakam as a scorer, but he did post a usage rate of 22.1% in Game 2.
Values
Stars-and-scrubs appears to be the optimal lineup building method in the single-game formats, and you’re going to need to look at some punts if you want to go in that direction. Luckily, a few options stand out:
- Greg Monroe ($2,000): Embiid is clearly still dealing with an injury, and Monroe has been the biggest beneficiary. He’s coming off 11.7 minutes in Game 2 and is currently projected for 13.9 minutes on today’s slate. He’s averaged a stout 1.79 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some serious damage when given the opportunity.
- Norman Powell ($1,600): He hasn’t provided much fantasy value this series, scoring just 11.25 DraftKings points over just under 28 minutes, but he’s averaged a respectable 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s locked into a comfortable role off the Raptors’ bench, which makes him an interesting buy-low option.
- Mike Scott ($2,800): He’s currently questionable with a foot injury but was able to go through practice on Wednesday. He’s yet to play in this series but averaged 23.5 minutes per game vs. the Brooklyn Nets.
- James Ennis ($3,200): He’s developed into an important part of the 76ers bench, logging at least 20.2 minutes in each of his past four games. He’s scored at least 21.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three contests, so he has legit upside at just $3,200.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Toronto Raptors SF Kawhi Leonard (2)
Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
