The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
De’Aaron Fox was limited to just 23.6 minutes in his last game, and he was able to rack up only 19.0 DraftKings points as a result. That said, his salary decreased by $600 after that contest, which makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him. He’s priced at just $7,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and the Kings’ implied team total of 118.75 represents a sizable increase compared to their season average (113.9). Fox also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.97 on DraftKings, which is one of the top marks at the position.
Value
Alex Caruso continues to provide solid production for the shorthanded Lakers. He’s scored at least 22.2 FanDuel points in three of his past four games and has averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. The Lakers could be without Kyle Kuzma again in addition to all their usual injured suspects for today’s matchup vs. the Warriors, so it’s possible he could see a few additional minutes.
Fast Break
Rajon Rondo is basically the last man standing from the Lakers’ original core. LeBron James, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart have all been ruled out for the rest of the regular season, and Rondo has seen a usage bump of +2.5% with all four players off the court this season. The result is an average of 1.01 DraftKings points per minute. He’s priced at a discount at just $6,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Collin Sexton has been one of the most reliable fantasy producers at the PG position recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 13 of his past 14 games on FanDuel, resulting in a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month. Sexton should benefit from the absence of Kevin Love on today’s slate, as he’s averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute with Love off the court since the All-Star break.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Khris Middleton has missed each of the past two games with an injury but is expected to return to the Bucks lineup for today’s matchup vs. the 76ers. He’s been a nice value over his past 10 games on FanDuel, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.90, and he’s averaged 1.16 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s been priced down to just $6,900 coming off his injury, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. This game between the Bucks and 76ers should also be a high-scoring affair, with both teams ranking in the top seven in pace and offensive efficiency.
Value
The Lakers should be a popular team to target today given their current injury situation. That includes Reggie Bullock, who is coming off 30.3 minutes in his last contest. He hasn’t been incredibly productive recently, averaging just 0.62 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but he doesn’t need to do much to potentially pay off his $3,800 salary.
Fast Break
Sterling Brown has seen a huge bump in playing time recently given the Bucks’ string of injuries. He should see a few less minutes today with Middleton back in the lineup, but he’s still projected for 28 in our NBA Models. Brown has averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he can still do some damage in 28 minutes. He’s priced at just $4,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Buddy Hield has scored at least 40.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he has one of the best individual matchups at the position on today’s slate. He’s a strong option on DraftKings, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. His 10 Pro Trends also rank second at the position.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo headlines the SF position on today’s slate, and he’s averaged a dominant 1.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The only problem is the number of minutes he’s been playing recently. He’s logged 32.7 minutes or less in each of his past five contests, including less than 30 minutes in two of them. It’s hard to provide big time fantasy value in that kind of playing time, regardless of how efficient he is. He’s still worth some consideration on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%, but he doesn’t appear to possess the same ceiling that he did early in the season.
Value
Harrison Barnes is a pretty boring fantasy option, but he’s hard to ignore at just $4,500 on DraftKings. His price has decreased by $700 over the past month, but he’s averaged 25.4 DraftKings points per game over that time frame. He’s averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute and is currently projected for 32.6 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Nemanja Bjelica looks like the Kings SF to target on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and has carved out a healthy role in the rotation after the injury to Harry Giles. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value at his current salary.
Jimmy Butler is priced at a discount on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95% and has averaged 36.6 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also posted a Consistency Rating of 92% over that time frame, which increases his appeal for cash games.
Power Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris has seen a price decrease of $1,000 over the past month on FanDuel, which makes him an appealing target for today’s contest vs. the Bucks. He’s priced at just $7,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he leads the PF position with 13 Pro Trends. He should be extremely chalky – he’s currently projected for greater than 41% ownership – but no one at the position can equal his combination of floor and ceiling.
Value
Larry Nance Jr. should see a healthy amount of playing time with Love out of the lineup, and he’s averaged a strong 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also in an excellent spot vs. the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.11, and his $6,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Marvin Bagley has been fantastic when given an opportunity to play this season, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s still not seeing a ton of playing time – he’s currently projected for 28.1 minutes – but that hasn’t stopped him from averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.27 over his past 10 games. He’s a strong target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
The Bucks have a pair of interesting punts at the PF position in Ersan Ilyasova and D.J. Wilson. They’re both expected to see roughly 18 minutes of playing time, with Ilyasova’s workload being a little more secure. That said, Wilson has averaged more points per minute over the past month and is priced at the absolute minimum.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is expected to return to the 76ers lineup after missing each of the past three games, and he stands out in his own tier at the center position. He’s averaged 1.78 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which trails only Giannis’ mark on today’s slate. His 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, and his matchup vs. the Bucks results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.23. He’s priced at just $10,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he could see reduced ownership in his first game back from injury.
Value
Mo Wagner has started each of the past two games for the Lakers, and he should draw another start today vs. the Golden State Warriors. He’s scored at least 19.9 FanDuel points in each of those contests but remains very reasonably priced at just $3,800. He should be a very popular punt play given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Fast Break
DeMarcus Cousins is in a potential smash spot tonight vs. the Lakers. He’s averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.63 is the top mark on the slate. He’s also one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
JaVale McGee has posted an average Plus/Minus of +13.56 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he should continue to see big minutes for the shorthanded Lakers. He’s averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 30.5 minutes, which makes him a strong option at just $6,700 on DraftKings.
News Updates
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Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
