The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is rolling right now. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.30 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, including a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past nine games.
He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency this season. Westbrook owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.01 on DraftKings, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 120.75 is the top mark on the slate. The Thunder will also be without both Dennis Schroder and Jerami Grant, and Westbrook has seen a usage bump of +4.3% with both players off the court this season. He posted a usage rate of 37.0% with both players out of the lineup in their last game, giving him a massive ceiling on today’s slate.
Value
The Knicks are going to be a bit shorthanded today, which makes them a strong target vs. the Atlanta Hawks. They’re still without both Emmanuel Mudiay and Frank Ntilikina, and Mario Hezonja is currently listed as doubtful.
That could result in a few additional minutes for Kadeem Allen, who has been really productive when given an opportunity this season. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute and is currently projected for 23.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s scored at least 27.6 FanDuel points in each of his past three contests, and his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
Raymond Felton and Deonte Burton look like intriguing punt options for the Thunder. Both players saw more than 20 minutes off the bench in their last contest, and both responded with at least 23.25 DraftKings points. They could provide some value today given the excellent matchup vs. the Pelicans.
Trae Young could be in for a big finish to his rookie season. The Hawks decided to part ways with Jeremy Lin, leaving Young to handle the majority of the PG minutes. He played 38 minutes in his last game and responded with 50.2 FanDuel points vs. the Lakers. He’s averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he has huge upside if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jrue Holiday is the class of the SG position on today’s slate, but it’s tough to trust anyone on the Pelicans right now. They’ve been lackluster in their past two games, averaging just 89 points, and Holiday unsurprisingly failed to return value in either of those contests.
Holiday also doesn’t possess the same ceiling with Anthony Davis back in the lineup. Davis’ role has fluctuated a bit following the trade deadline, but his presence is still going to make it harder for Holiday to return value on a night-to-night basis.
Value
Damyean Dotson seems like a prime candidate to replace Hezonja in the Knicks’ starting lineup, which makes him an appealing punt play. He’s seen one of the largest usage bumps on the team with Hezonja off the court since the trade deadline, and his $3,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Fast Break
Nicolas Batum has been a nice value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.92 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. Tony Parker remains out for the Hornets, and Batum has seen one of the largest boosts in value with Parker out of the lineup this season. He’s averaged 26.03 DraftKings points per game in that situation, good for an average Plus/Minus of +4.0.
Allonzo Trier could be another interesting value play for the Knicks. He may not see as many minutes as Dotson but has averaged a superior 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s in a great spot vs. the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.10.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George stands in his own tier at the SF position. He’s been wonderful for most of the season, even warranting some MVP consideration, but he’s been even better recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +12.29 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and exploded for 88.5 DraftKings points in his most recent contest.
He could be looking at another monster game tonight vs. the Pelicans. He played 43 minutes with Schroder and Grant out of the lineup in their last game and is currently projected for a slate-high 40.4 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 1.55 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, giving him a safe floor and high ceiling on today’s slate. He’s an elite target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Kevin Knox has had an up-and-down rookie season for the Knicks, but his development should be their most important goal for the rest of the season. He played just 19 minutes in their last game but had seen at least 34 in each of the six prior games. He’s seen one of the biggest bumps in usage with Hezonja off the court since the trade deadline, so he should be able to improve upon his average of 0.68 DraftKings points per minute over the past month with him out of the lineup.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince hasn’t played big minutes recently, but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring at least 28.75 DraftKings points in three of his past five games. He’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play much to provide value at his current $4,700 salary on DraftKings.
Evan Fournier has seen a slight bump in playing time after the team traded Jonathon Simmons at the deadline, and he’s responded by scoring at least 33.25 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. The matchup between the Hornets and Magic is the least appealing on the slate, but he’s someone who should be on your radar at just $5,500.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is impossible to handicap at this point. He clearly doesn’t want to be there and the team doesn’t want to play him, but the league is forcing them to coexist for the rest of the season. His workload is volatile – he’s played 24 minutes in two games and 34 minutes in one since returning to the lineup – and his fantasy production has declined to just 1.45 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He still offers an appealing ceiling at just $9,000 on DraftKings, especially at reduced ownership, but he carries a lot of bust potential as well.
Value
Sticking with the theme of Knicks value, Luke Kornet is an interesting target at just $3,200 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 20 in our NBA Models. He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.75 on DraftKings, which is one of the better marks at the PF position.
Fast Break
John Collins has been a disappointment recently but is a strong buy-low target today vs. the Knicks. They’ve struggled against opposing big men all season, and Collins scored 41.2 FanDuel points in his first matchup vs. the Knicks this season.
Marvin Williams has been a reliable source of value for the Hornets, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.39 over his past 10 games. That said, his salary has actually decreased by $200 over that time frame, and he could see a few additional minutes today with Bismack Biyombo out of the lineup. He’s a steal at $4,600 on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Most people will choose to pay up for Westbrook and George on today’s slate, which makes Nikola Vucevic an interesting pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s coming off 55.9 FanDuel points in his most recent contest and has averaged 1.46 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He leads all centers with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his 52% Bargain Rating makes him one of the better pure values among the high-priced options as well.
Value
Cody Zeller doesn’t provide much of a ceiling, but he’s been an extremely reliable source of value recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past eight games on DraftKings and is playing a ton of minutes. He should see plenty of time tonight to try and combat the size of Vucevic, and his $4,800 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Steven Adams has seen a sizable price decrease across the industry over the past month, making him a strong buy-low option vs. the Pelicans. It’s a great matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.34, and Adams posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first three matchups vs. the Pelicans this season (per the Trends tool).
News Updates
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Pictured: Thunder F Paul George
Photo Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports
