NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Thurs. 12/13): Nikola Vucevic in Smash Spot vs. Bulls

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

The point guard position is pretty weak at the top today; Chris Paul is the only player in the $8,000-plus range on FanDuel. He’s been a terrible fantasy asset of late, hitting salary-based expectations in only 38% of his games over the past month, averaging a -1.12 Plus/Minus during that time frame.

That said, he’s coming off a 50.2-point fantasy outing against the Blazers, posting an 11-11-10 triple-double in 33 minutes. This game vs. the Lakers does have some shoot-out potential, too: The Rockets have the best offensive efficiency in the league over the past month, but their defense has ranked among the bottom five. That could equate to a high-scoring affair against a Lakers squad that ranks fourth in pace.

Value

De’Anthony Melton has crushed value of late, exceeding salary-based expectations on DraftKings in five straight games. He’s gone for over 30 in each of his last two, during which he’s exceeded 33 minutes. He’s using a ton of possessions — we have him projected for 20% usage, which is probably conservative — and is still just $4,900. He easily leads the slate with a massive +11.06 Projected Plus/Minus and is a no-brainer cash play on both sites.

Fast Break

Mavs point guard Jalen Brunson has been priced up a bit on FanDuel at $5,500, but is still very cheap on DraftKings at $4,300. He’s gotten over 30 minutes in two of his past three games, and he should continue to get the starting nod if Dennis Smith Jr. is out again (he’s questionable and has missed four straight). Add to that the questionable status of backup point guard J.J. Barea, and it’s possible Brunson has to handle a ton of minutes tonight.

Shooting Guard

Stud

There are three shooting guards in the $8,000-plus range on FanDuel today: James Harden ($11,500), DeMar DeRozan ($9,600) and Zach LaVine ($8,100).

The projected ceilings for both Harden and DeRozan are much higher than that of LaVine, who has been terrible and missed value of his past four games. He’s a GPP play at best tonight. Among the other two, both are priced pretty fairly in pace-up spots. DeMar has definitely been the better investment of late: He busted last game, but otherwise has been excellent; Harden, meanwhile, hasn’t hit value in six straight games.

Value

The value at shooting guard is very different depending on the site: The players with the highest Projected Plus/Minus marks on DraftKings are Patrick Beverley ($3,600) and Mikal Bridges ($3,800); on FanDuel, it’s Terrence Ross ($5,500) and Josh Hart ($4,500). They’re all about even in value, although in cash games it’s probably wise to target those with high minutes upside. Hart would definitely qualify with Brandon Ingram still out, as he’s gotten around 35 minutes per game in each of his past three. All are in play, although I would note that on DraftKings Melton has point guard/shooting guard eligibility, so you could roster him alongside Brunson.

Fast Break

I couldn’t not mention Mavs wunderkind Luka Doncic, who went for 47 FanDuel points last night against the Hawks thanks to 24 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. He has a cake matchup tonight against a Suns team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and has averaged a team-high 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with Smith Jr. and Barea off the floor.

Small Forward

Stud

LeBron James ($11,700) is the only small forward on FanDuel priced $8,000 or above; he’s at least $4,500 more expensive than any other option. He’s been very up and down this season as a fantasy asset, but he has gone for 57-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games, which conveniently coincide with Ingram out of the lineup and not jacking up terrible mid-rangers. In the past two seasons, he has yet to hit value in four games against the Rockets, although they are much worse defensively this season, ranking 25th with a putrid 109.6 rating.

Value

Jonathon Simmons provides almost no peripheral statistics, which is scary for cash games. However, the dude is only $3,500 on DraftKings and is projected for nearly 30 minutes tonight. He was questionable after injuring his ankle in practice Wednesday but has been upgraded to probable this morning. He leads all FD small forwards with a +6.08 Projected Plus/Minus and faces a Chicago team that has been one of the worst in the league over the past couple weeks.

Fast Break

Speaking of Orlando Jon, Simmons’ teammate Jon Isaac is also a nice value at $4,200 on DraftKings and $5,100 on FanDuel. He scored just 11.5 DraftKings points in 27 minutes last game — an embarrassing loss to the Mavs in which the Magic scored just 76 points — but prior to that had gone for over 20 in four of six. He’s supposed to stay in the starting lineup tonight even with Simmons probable, which gives him a nice minutes floor at a low salary. The matchup is the icing on the cake.

Power Forward

Stud

Three power forwards are right at $8,000 tonight on FanDuel: LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,400), Tobias Harris ($8,000) and Aaron Gordon ($8,000).

I can’t in good conscience recommend Aldridge, who has been perhaps the most disappointing player in the entire NBA this season. Fantasy-wise, over his past 10 games he’s hit value in just three, averaging an embarrassing -5.31 Plus/Minus. Perhaps he turns it around tonight, but I won’t find myself paying $8,400 for him in a ton of lineups.

Of the other two, both are coming off really terrible performances, Tobias in a blowout loss to the Raptors and Gordon in a blowout loss to the Mavs. Both are in good bounce-back spots, though, especially considering how bad the opposing defenses have been this season.

I’d rather invest in Harris personally, especially considering Gordon has seen a stark efficiency dip this season playing alongside Isaac, who, again, is reportedly staying in the starting lineup. Harris is especially cheap and easy to roster on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary comes with a 93% Bargain Rating.

Value

If you want to dip down to the min-price level, you’ll likely be throwing darts. Isaac does have dual small forward/power forward eligibility on DraftKings, which helps. Otherwise, it’s guys like P.J. Tucker, who is $3,800 and projected for 36.5 minutes but is also projected for an absurdly-low 8.68% usage rate.

Richaun Holmes is also $3,800 and should eat more possessions, but he’s unlikely to go a lot higher than 20 minutes. If you want a ceiling play, it’s probably best to pay up just a bit more for someone like Josh Jackson, who is woefully inefficient most nights but is still playing a bunch with Devin Booker out and has no problem jacking up shots left and right.

Fast Break

In the mid-tier range, there’s a bunch of guys with GPP-winning ceilings. Kyle Kuzma has crushed value of late, posting a +7.63 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency Rating over his past 10. He’s projected for nearly 38 minutes tonight against a terrible Houston defense.

Montrezl Harrell is almost always in play, although he’s struggled a bit lately, which I think is mostly due to a shoulder injury he’s playing through. Thus, I wouldn’t go too crazy with him today. And finally, Lauri Markkanen has already flashed a big ceiling since returning, going for 40-plus twice in the past week.

Center

Stud

Nikola Vucevic has legitimately been one of the best 15-20 players in the NBA this season. It’s translated to fantasy success, too: He’s exceeded value by 4.0 FanDuel points on average this season. He’s now pricey at $8,900 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel, but not pricey enough.

He leads the center position in Projected Plus/Minus by a mile, and he’s in an absolute smash spot against this atrocious Chicago defense. The Bulls easily rank last in offensive rebound rate this season, which means he should gobble up all those defensive boards tonight, of which there should be many.

Value

JaVale McGee has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games on DraftKings, and still he’s priced in the mid-$4,000s. He’s not going to play a ton of minutes — he’s projected for just 22 currently — but that’s not a huge issue considering he’s averaging a strong 1.16 fantasy points per minute. He’ll go up against a Houston team that has been terrible defensively this season and ranks 28th in overall rebound rate.

Fast Break

DeAndre Jordan is certainly not a typical cash-game option considering he’s all over the place with his performances. Over the past two weeks, he’s gone for 40-53 fantasy points three times and under 30 just as many. He had a whopping 7.6 points against the Pelicans recently. But in GPPs that volatility is a good thing, and he has a beautiful matchup against the Suns, who have allowed opposing centers to outperform expectations by 3.21 points this season.

Good luck!

News Updates

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Pictured Above: Magic Center Nikola Vucevic

Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA Today Sports