NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Thu. 1/3): Will Kawhi Leonard Dominate His Former Team?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Steph Curry has been a poor fantasy asset over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus -2.74 on DraftKings. That said, he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, and his current $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Unfortunately, he’s in a difficult spot today vs. the Houston Rockets. They haven’t been particularly effective defensively this season, ranking just 21st in defensive efficiency, but they have played at the third-slowest pace in the league. As a result, the Warriors’ implied team total of 116.25 points is basically right in line with their regular season average (115.8).

Curry also struggled vs. the Rockets during the regular season last year, scoring 36.75 DraftKings points or fewer in two of three games. He always has the potential for a big game, but there appear to be better options.

Value

Rudy Gay is going to be an interesting player to monitor prior to lineup lock. Gregg Popovich said he was unlikely to play, then upgraded him to questionable, and is now listed as probable. It seems likely that he’ll suit up, but you never know with the Spurs.

Regardless of Gay’s status, Bryn Forbes looks like a relatively safe option. He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of his past four games and has averaged a respectable 0.77 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He hasn’t displayed much upside this season – he’s scored more than 28.8 FanDuel points in just two of 38 games this season – but he makes sense for cash games.

Fast Break

De’Aaron Fox has one of the toughest matchups at the position vs. the Denver Nuggets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.73, but he just seems too cheap at $7,500 on DraftKings. He’s averaged a stout 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.04 over that time frame. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends and owns a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Kyle Lowry has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s contest vs. the Spurs, but it seems like he’s still unlikely to suit up. His absence would mean another start for Fred VanVleet, who leads the position with a Bargain Rating of 75% on FanDuel. The Spurs have been much better on the defensive end recently — they’ve allowed just 102.7 points per 100 possessions over their past 11 games — but VanVleet owns the best individual matchup on the team.

Shooting Guard

Stud

James Harden has done everything for the Rockets recently, who have won 10 of their past 11 games. He’s averaged a ridiculous 39.7 points, 8.5 assists, and 6.3 rebounds over that time frame and has added in 2.1 steals per game for good measure. He believes he deserves to win the MVP award for the second straight season, and it’s hard to argue when he’s putting up those kinds of numbers.

I asked James Harden if he is consciously hungry for winning another MVP, he said “I need it. I need it for sure. And I’m going to get it”. #Rockets

— Rosalyn Gold-Onwude (@ROSGO21) January 2, 2019

He can’t possibly do much more for the Rockets unless he starts sweeping up the gym after games. With all that in mind, his current $11,000 salary on DraftKings is an absolute joke. We currently have him projected for greater than 41% ownership, and that number should be close to 100% in reality. He’s scored at least 58.25 DraftKings points in each of his past 10 games, including scoring 82.0 DraftKings points against the toughest defense in fantasy in his most recent outing. Just lock him into your lineups and move on.

Value

Sticking with the Rockets, Austin Rivers might be the best pure value at shooting guard position at just $3,800 on FanDuel. He played a whopping 40 minutes for the shorthanded Rockets in their last game and is currently projected for 37 in our NBA Models. Historically, players with a comparable salary and minute projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.18 (per the Trends tool).

Fast Break

DeMar DeRozan slightly disappointed in his most recent contest but will obviously be under the spotlight tonight vs. the Raptors. He’s made his displeasure about leaving Toronto well known, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he tried to put on a show against his former team. That said, he will likely have to deal with the individual defense of Kawhi Leonard, which is obviously a daunting task, and his ownership will likely be inflated by people chasing the #RevengeGame narrative.

Most people will likely use some combination of Harden, Rivers, and DeRozan at the shooting guard position on FanDuel, which makes Malik Beasley an interesting pivot for guaranteed prize pools. He’s averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has the best matchup of the day vs. the Sacramento Kings. His $4,900 salary on FanDuel also comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.

Small Forward

Stud

It’s finally here. The revenge game we’ve all been waiting for. After a tumultuous offseason, Jakob Poeltl finally gets to take his revenge against the Toronto Raptors after shipping him off to San Antonio!

Just kidding. The real headline is obviously Kawhi Leonard returning to San Antonio after forcing his way out, which still feels weird to say out loud. He’s had a smooth transition to Toronto and has been the Raptors’ offensive focal point with Lowry out of the lineup, averaging 47.49 DraftKings points and posting a usage rate of 33.8%. He’s yet another superstar who seems badly underpriced on DraftKings, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Going with a “stars and scrubs” kind of lineup construction seems like the optimal strategy.

Value

There aren’t many strong value options at the small forward position today, but Gay could be worth a look on FanDuel if he’s active. He could see reduced minutes after missing their most recent game, but he’s averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He could also see a few additional looks on offense if Leonard spends the majority of his time guarding DeRozan.

Fast Break

Kevin Durant is an interesting target on today’s slate. He’s struggled mightily against the Rockets since the start of last season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -9.98 over his past nine games (including playoffs). P.J. Tucker put the clamps on him in their first game this season, holding him to -15.7 points per 100 possessions below his season average.

That said, he’ll likely garner way less attention that guys like Harden, DeRozan, and Leonard, which could make him an intriguing option for GPPs. He obviously has big upside despite his struggles with the Rockets in the past.

Marvin Bagley has been ruled out again for the Kings, which means we can safely consider Nemanja Bjelica. He’s gone for at least 31.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, including 40.0 vs. the Blazers in his most recent contest. He’s another player priced at a deep discount on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Power Forward

Stud

LaMarcus Aldridge might not be the main attraction in tonight’s showdown between the Spurs and Raptors, but he’s been the San Antonio’s best player recently. He’s scored at least 43.25 DraftKings points in each of his past three games, including at least 52.75 in each of his past two.

He’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his playing time shouldn’t take much of a hit with Gay back in the lineup. He also has a better individual matchup than DeRozan among the Spurs’ stars, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.65.

Value

Tucker’s defensive prowess should result in a lot of minutes tonight vs. Durant, which makes him a strong target at $4,400 on FanDuel. Value is significantly tougher to find on FanDuel on today’s slate, and his Bargain Rating of 60% ranks second at the PF position.

Fast Break

Paul Millsap recently made his return for the Denver Nuggets, but his minutes have been limited over his first two games. Still, that didn’t stop him from putting up 34.25 DraftKings points in his most recent contest, and he’s in an awesome spot tonight vs. the Kings. He should see a few additional minutes as he gets further removed from his injury — he’s currently projected for 26.5 in our NBA Models — which makes him an appealing target across the industry.

Draymond Green has been an absolute disaster this season, averaging career-lows in virtually every category across the board. That said, a trip to Houston might be just what the doctor ordered: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.56 in his past 27 meetings vs. the Rockets. He’s also seen a massive reduction in salary since the start of the season and should command relatively low ownership on today’s slate.

Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic is a truly special player. He fell one rebound short of recording his second game of the season with at least 15 points, rebounds and assists, which is something that only Wilt Chamberlain had previously achieved at the center position.

He’s in a potential smash spot today vs. the Kings, who have been destroyed by opposing big men all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.01 on DraftKings, where Jokic leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends. Outside of Harden, he has the highest upside on today’s slate.

Value

Greg Monroe taken on a more prominent role in the Raptors’ rotation recently, logging 18 minutes in each of his past two games. That may not sound like much, but Monroe doesn’t need many minutes to pay off his current $3,400 salary on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and his minimal salary will help you squeeze multiple studs into your lineups.

Fast Break

There are a lot of guys who are significantly underpriced today on DraftKings – 17 players have a Bargain Rating of at least 97% — but Clint Capela might be the best value of them all. He’s been priced down to just $6,900, which represents a decrease of $1,100 over his past three games.

He has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.27 with a comparable salary this season, and his matchup with the Warriors gives him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.40. He also has a slightly positive correlation with Harden, so you can definitely play them in the same lineups.

Good luck!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.

Pictured Above: Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard
Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports