The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is coming off a poor performance yesterday vs. the Spurs, scoring just 41.25 DraftKings points in 33.8 minutes. Still, he’s been an elite source of fantasy production recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.95 on DraftKings over his past 10 games.
Unfortunately, he’s in a brutal spot today vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, who have been one of the worst matchups in fantasy this season. They’ve played at the slowest pace in the league and rank sixth in defensive efficiency, and the Thunder’s resulting implied team total of 114.25 is slightly lower than their season average (115.5).
Ultimately, the status of Paul George will have a big impact on Westbrook’s fantasy viability in this contest. His status is currently unknown, but it seems like he’s closer to doubtful than questionable on the second leg of a back-to-back. If he’s out, Westbrook becomes an elite play in all formats.
He’s seen a usage bump of +4.7% in three games without George this season, giving him a high floor and ceiling despite the tough matchup. If George does play, he’s probably a bit overpriced at $11,600 on DraftKings.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: oronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7).
Kawhi Leonard will get the day off for “load management”, which puts Kyle Lowry squarely on the DFS radar. He’s been playing excellent basketball recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.01 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he should obviously see a boost in value with Leonard out of the lineup.
He’s seen a usage bump of +3.8% in 17 games without Leonard this season, resulting in an average of 41.93 DraftKings points per game. Lowry is going to be tough to avoid on DraftKings at $7,300.
Value
Tomas Satoransky has seen a sizable price decrease over the past month, which makes him an appealing buy-low target today vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. They’ve struggled defensively this season, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 121.0 is the top mark on the slate. He’s currently projected for 33.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, making him a strong option across the industry.
Fast Break
On the other side of the same matchup, it’s easy to like Jeff Teague on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. The Wizards are an excellent matchup as well, giving Teague an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.26.
Reggie Jackson is the best pure value at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%. His minutes can be volatile, but he has increased his fantasy production to 1.0 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has upside at just $5,300.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has probably been the most overlooked fantasy superstar this season. He’s been particularly impressive over his past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +9.93 on DraftKings, yet he’s commanded an ownership of greater than 20% in just one of those contests.
That will probably change today on a small slate in an excellent spot vs. the Timberwolves. He leads all shooting guards with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Value
If you need a punt play at the shooting guard position on DraftKings, Josh Okogie is your guy. He’s been a reliable option recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 100% over the past month, yet his salary has decreased to $3,400 for today’s matchup vs. the Wizards.
He’s currently projected for 25.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.63 (per the Trends tool). If you factor in a comparable implied team total — the Timberwolves’ mark of 120.0 points ranks second on the slate — the average Plus/Minus increases to +3.55.
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder should continue to garner increased attention if George remains out of the lineup. He’s scored at least 25.7 FanDuel points in all three games without George this season, making him an excellent value at $5,100 on FanDuel.
Evan Fournier is another nice target on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have been the worst defensive team in the league by a considerable margin this season. Fournier has also scored at least 30.6 FanDuel points in six of his past eight games.
Small Forward
Stud
Small forward is easily the weakest position on today’s slate. Only Trevor Ariza owns a salary above $6,000 on FanDuel, and only Aaron Gordon cracks that plateau on DraftKings.
Of the two, Gordon appears to be the better option. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games. He’s also a better value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 89%.
Value
Bruno Caboclo is one of the best values of the day, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 77%. He’s coming off 33.2 FanDuel points in 34.5 minutes in his last game and should continue to command a large workload with Jaren Jackson Jr. out with an injury. He’s averaged a solid 0.79 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage when given the opportunity to play consistent minutes.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins has small forward eligibility on DraftKings, which increases his appeal on today’s slate. He benefits from the same elite matchup as the rest of the Timberwolves and has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
OG Anunoby started the last game for the Raptors without Leonard, which makes him an interesting option at $3,100 on DraftKings. He doesn’t offer much upside given his average of 0.66 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but he doesn’t need to do much to potentially pay off his reduced salary.
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Love has slowly increased his playing time since returning from injury and is currently projected for a season-high 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged an elite 1.57 DraftKings points per minute since returning from injury, so he has big upside at his current salary if he sees a few additional minutes. He’s a particularly strong option at $7,400 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 83%.
Value
Sticking with the Cavs, Larry Nance Jr. looks like the preferred Cavs’ option on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and should see a healthy amount of playing time with both Ante Zizic and Tristan Thompson out of the lineup. He’s priced at just $5,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Cavaliers forward Larry Nance Jr. (22).
Fast Break
Serge Ibaka is an interesting option today. He’s seen a huge reduction in playing time recently, logging 24 minutes or less in each of his past three games, but he’s also been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Leonard out of the lineup this season. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.3% in those contests, resulting in an average of 33.75 DraftKings points per game. He could make sense as a contrarian buy-low option.
Jerami Grant and Markieff Morris should both see a boost in value if George is ruled out for the third straight game. Morris has posted an average Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, while Grant has average just under 30 DraftKings points per game with George out of the lineup.
Center
Stud
Paying up at the center position will likely be a very popular strategy on today’s slate. There are plenty of strong options to choose from, but none enter today’s contest in better recent form than Karl-Anthony Towns. He’s benefited from some soft matchups recently but also torched the Pacers in a difficult matchup in his last game. Overall, he’s scored at least 70.25 DraftKings points in each of his past three games.
He’s in another strong spot today vs. the Washington Wizards, who have struggled both on the glass and defensively this season. He’s a particularly strong target today on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Value
Marc Gasol has entered the starting lineup for the Raptors recently and should see a few additional minutes today with Leonard out of the lineup. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his matchup vs. the Pistons results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.67 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Towns should attract the majority of the attention at the center position, which makes Nikola Vucevic and Andre Drummond appealing pivot plays for GPPs. Neither player has as good of a matchup, both players are also excellent values on DraftKings. Each player owns a Bargain Rating of at least 96%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns
Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
