The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game with a shoulder injury, but he’s in an excellent spot against the Phoenix Suns if he’s able to suit up. They were one of the worst teams in the league against opposing point guards last season, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 115.75 ranks second on the slate.
Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0).
Westbrook has historically dominated in this matchup as well, averaging 71.11 DraftKings points and a +10.02 Plus/Minus in seven games over the past two seasons (per the Trends tool). He’s currently priced at a discount on DraftKings, with his $10,700 salary resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
The Dallas Mavericks have one of the toughest matchups of the day against the Utah Jazz, who ranked second in defensive efficiency last season. They’re currently implied for just 104 points, which is the second-lowest mark of the day.
That said, it’s hard to completely avoid them on a three-game slate. One player worthy of consideration is Dennis Smith Jr. He has averaged just under 1.0 fantasy point per minute on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but his salary has seen a nice decrease in anticipation of this difficult matchup. He’s particularly appealing at just $5,700 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
John Wall may not be able to get along with his teammates, but it hasn’t really stopped him from putting up good fantasy results to begin the season. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 80% on FanDuel through his first five games, which is tied for the best mark at the position.
The Phoenix Suns are without star Devin Booker for today’s matchup vs. the Thunder, which should result in a slightly larger role for Isaiah Canaan. He scored 19.8 FanDuel points with Booker out of the lineup yesterday and could see a few additional minutes if today’s contest stays competitive.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal looks like one of the best options of the day, especially on DraftKings at just $7,200. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute through his first five games, and no one on the slate is projected for more minutes in our NBA Models (38). He’s historically crushed with a comparable price tag, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.48 and a Consistency Rating of 60.2%. He doesn’t have a great individual matchup vs. the Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.18, but the Wizards’ implied team total of 112.0 points ranks third on the slate. Regardless of the matchup, he’s just too cheap at the moment.
Value
Jamal Crawford could be a nice source of savings today for the shorthanded Suns. He’s not the same player that he used to be — he shot just 41.5% from the field and 33.1% from 3-point range last season — but he still typically gets up plenty of shots when he’s on the floor. The result is an average of 0.79 fantasy points per minute through his first four games, and he could see upwards of 24 minutes today with Booker out of the lineup. That makes him intriguing at $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Lou Williams has yet to post a big game this season, but his prior history suggests it’s only a matter of time. Today’s matchup vs. the Wizards could be a good spot to buy low on him: He’s seen a salary decrease of $1,700 on FanDuel since the start of the season, and the Clippers implied team total of 116.25 ranks first on the slate.
Donovan Mitchell has had a strong start to his sophomore campaign, averaging more points and assists per game than he did as a rookie. He has the best individual matchup of the day at this position, owning an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.14 on FanDuel against the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs have been extremely poor on defense in general to start the season, allowing the fourth-most points per 100 possessions.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George is the only stud available at the small forward position on today’s slate. He has an excellent matchup against the Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.55 on FanDuel, but he seems a bit overpriced if Westbrook is active. He’s currently priced at $8,900 on FanDuel but struggled to an average Plus/Minus of -1.62 with a comparable salary last season.
Value
TJ Warren and Josh Jackson (PF eligible on FanDuel) figure to be the biggest beneficiaries for the Suns with Booker out of the lineup. Jackson led the starters with a usage rate of 37.6% in their last contest, but poor shooting numbers and seven turnovers ultimately limited his fantasy production. He averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute with Booker off the floor last season, so he seems like a solid value across the industry.
Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phoenix Suns forward Josh Jackson (20).
Warren will continue to come off the bench for the Suns but should still see a big boost in value. He averaged 0.96 fantasy points per minute with Booker off the floor last season and led the team with a usage rate of 27.9%. He only played 18.5 minutes in yesterday’s blowout but is projected for closer to 30 on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Kelly Oubre has exploded for at least 35.2 FanDuel points in two of his past three games and has seen a nice bump in playing time as the season has progressed. He’s averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute through his first five games, and his $4,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Danilo Gallinari averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in his most recent contest, but his overall fantasy production was limited by just 21 minutes of playing time in a blowout. He should return to his normal workload in today’s contest, and his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Power Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris has been excellent to start the season, posting a perfect 100% Consistency Rating on DraftKings. He has one of the best individual matchups of the day against the Wizards, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.69. He’s seeing all the minutes he can handle to begin the year – he’s currently projected for 37 in our NBA Models – and has averaged 1.1 fantasy points per minute through his first five games. Its hard to look past him for cash games, and he has some upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Value
Montrezl Harrel has always been a per-minute monster, and this season has been no exception: He’s averaged 1.48 FanDuel points per minute through his first five games. What has changed a bit is his workload, as he’s played at least 23 minutes in each of his past three games.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris is currently questionable for today’s contest with an illness, and his status could be important to monitor: He’s coming of 37 minutes of playing time in his last contest, which would open up a lot of minutes if he’s inactive. Jeff Green would be one of the top candidates to replace him in the starting lineup and has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute to start the season.
Center
Stud
DeAndre Ayton has been extremely impressive to start his NBA career, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.33 on DraftKings. He’s been extremely efficient, shooting 69.6% from the field, and he’s also chipped in 10.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game.
The only thing that has kept him from truly dominating is his usage rate: He currently ranks just sixth on the team at 18.9%. He’s another candidate to see a slightly larger workload with Booker on the sidelines, which gives him big upside even in a difficult matchup vs. the Thunder.
Value
Center is a hard position to pay down at today. There’s a massive drop off from the fourth-highest priced center, Steven Adams at $7,300 on FanDuel, to the fifth-highest priced center, Nerlens Noel at $3,900.
If you are going to go cheap, Noel might be your best option. He’s averaged 1.25 FanDuel points per minute to start the season, and the Thunder are currently 12.5-point favorites against the Suns. He could see a few additional minutes if this game turns into a blowout.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan has been excellent to start the season, posting a 100% Consistency Rating and an average Plus/Minus of +4.72 on DraftKings through his first five games. He’s seen a slight price decrease in anticipation of a difficult matchup vs. the Jazz, but they’ve actually struggled with opposing centers to start the season: Jordan leads all centers with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.59.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Suns F Josh Jackson (20)
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
