The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game slate that tips off at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guards
Stud
Stephen Curry has exceeded salary-based expectations in his first two games this season and appears to be in a wonderful spot against the Nuggets.
The Warriors’ implied team total of 116.25 ranks second on the slate, and Curry owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.30 on FanDuel. His average of 1.42 fantasy points per minute to start the season is the top mark at the position, and his $9,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Values
Point guard has two of the best values of the day: Trae Young and Jamal Murray. Both are slightly better values on FanDuel, where each owns a Bargain Rating of 75%, and their 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most on the slate.
Young has been a major factor in the Hawks’ offense this season, ranking first in minutes per game and assist rate and second in usage rate through their first two games. The result is an average of 0.96 FanDuel points per minute, which ranks fourth at the position on Sunday’s slate. He has a nice matchup vs. the Cavaliers, who rank only 28th in defensive efficiency through their first two games.
Murray played more than 37 minutes in the Nuggets’ most recent contest and is in a nice pace-up spot today vs. the Warriors. The Nuggets are one of the few teams that haven’t embraced the pace revolution this season, checking in at just 24th through their first two games. The Nuggets’ projected pace differential of +2.7 in Sunday’s contest is the top mark on the slate, so Murray has a chance to improve on his average of 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Russell Westbrook is targeting a return in Sunday’s matchup vs. the Kings, and his $10,500 salary on DraftKings might be the cheapest that he’ll be priced at all season. He could be limited in some capacity, but he averaged an elite 1.56 DraftKings points per minute last season.
Chris Paul will almost definitely be suspended for Sunday after the “spit-gate” altercation with Rajon Rondo on Saturday night:
#SpitGate Breakdown 🧐 pic.twitter.com/hkugEvfmvx
— Sherwob Holmes (@World_Wide_Wob) October 21, 2018
That could result in a few more minutes for Michael Carter-Williams, who has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute to start the season. He’s priced at $3,800, so he doesn’t need to play many minutes to potentially return value at his current salary.
De’Aaron Fox played only 27 minutes in his last game vs. the Pelicans, but that was likely a result of being down by 20 points in the fourth quarter. He should return to his usual playing time vs. the Thunder and has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute through his first two contests.
Shooting Guards
Stud
James Harden will likely be the chalk if Paul is indeed suspended. Harden is already one of the best fantasy producers in the league, and he saw a usage bump of 2.5% and an assist rate bump of +9.2% with Paul off the floor last season. The result was an average of 1.58 DraftKings points per minute, and he played fewer than 38 minutes in Saturday’s contest vs. the Lakers.
That said, his matchup vs. the Clippers isn’t particularly appealing: The Clippers are playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the league and rank third in defensive efficiency through their first two games. It’s obviously a small sample size, but the fact that their two games came against the Thunder and Nuggets bodes well for their success in 2018. They have a host of good defenders on the perimeter in Avery Bradley, Patrick Beverly and Luc Mbah a Moute, so the Clippers have as good a shot as any at slowing Harden down.
Harden is far from a must-play in guaranteed prize pools given his projected ownership of close to 40%.
Value
Klay Thompson has started the season in a major shooting slump, going just 9-for-29 from the field and 1-for-10 from 3-point range over his first two contests. Given that he’s one of the best shooters in NBA history, I think it’s pretty safe to say he’ll improve on those marks going forward.
Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Warriors guard Klay Thompson.
This could be a good time to buy low on Thompson on DraftKings. His salary has been reduced to $5,600, and he averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.65 with a comparable price tag last season. He was only priced below $5,800 once last season, so being able to roster him this cheap is definitely appealing (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
The top implied team total on Sunday’s slate does not belong to the Warriors, Rockets or Nuggets, but rather the Cavaliers at 118.75 points.
The Cavs have an elite matchup vs. the Hawks, who have played at the second-fastest pace through their first two games. Jordan Clarkson could be worth consideration on FanDuel, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s averaged 1.0 fantasy points per minute through his first two games and is second on the team with a usage rate of 28.6%.
Eric Gordon could be a sneaky pivot off Harden. Gordon averaged more than 30 DraftKings points per game last season with Paul out of the lineup and is priced at just $5,300.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant went off in his most recent game, scoring 38 points with nine rebounds and seven assists vs. the Jazz. He’s in his own SF tier Sunday, with Paul George almost undoubtedly being overpriced if Westbrook is back in the lineup. Durant looks like a nice value on FanDuel at just $10,400.
Value
Carmelo Anthony has been a disappointment through his first two games with the Rockets, but better days are likely ahead. He’s shot just 30% from the field, which is bound to improve. He could see a few additional minutes and shot attempts with Paul out of the lineup on Sunday, and his matchup with the Clippers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.19 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
LeBron who? Cedi Osman has been an absolute monster through the first two games, averaging 1.18 DraftKings points per minute. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.51 vs. the Hawks, and his $6,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hawks forward Taurean Prince.
Taurean Prince has been priced up across the industry for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Cavs, but it seems warranted based on his early play. He’s posted a usage rate of 31.7% through his first two games, resulting in an average of 1.44 DraftKings points per minute.
Prince could be in line for a big season serving as the Hawks’ offensive focal point.
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Love dominated in his most recent game, scoring 62.75 DraftKings points, but it’s possible that he has even more upside moving forward. He shot just 6-for-19 from the field against the Timberwolves on Friday and has shot just 29.7% from the field through his first two games.
If he can keep contributing in the peripheral categories and get his jump shot to start falling, Love could put up a massive performance.
Value
Marvin Bagley will likely be one of the most popular value options on this slate. He’s posted 1.25 fantasy points per minute through his first two games and played 32.5 minutes in his most recent contest. He likely won’t play as much on Sunday — he’s currently projected for 23.5 minutes in our NBA Models — but is undoubtedly underpriced at just $4,200 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute and a little less than 39 minutes of playing time through the first two games. He remains affordable at $7,700 on DraftKings and has one of the safest floors on the slate.
P.J. Tucker does a lot of the little things for the Rockets and has taken on a bigger role for them this season. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of their first two games and could see slightly more playing time with Paul on the sideline.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic put together one of the most eye-popping stat lines you’ll ever see on Saturday, scoring 35 points with 12 rebounds, 11 assists, four steals, one block and zero turnovers against the Suns. He also shot 11-for-11 from the field, finishing one missed free throw from a truly unblemished performance.
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nuggets center Nikola Jokic.
Unfortunately, he has a really difficult matchup vs. the Warriors this time. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.53, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 112.0 is the third-lowest mark on the slate. Jokic also struggled in this matchup last season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.09 on FanDuel over four games.
Value
Alex Len has gotten a healthy amount of playing time through his first two games with the Hawks, but it has yet to translate into fantasy success. That said, he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past 12 months, so there are reasons to believe he can improve.
Fast Break
Clint Capela has seen a salary decrease of $1,000 to start the season on FanDuel, which makes him an appealing buy-low target on this slate. He’s crushed the Clippers over the past two seasons, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.90 in seven matchups.
Trying to predict what the Kings are going to do on a nightly basis is a fool’s errand, but Willie Cauley-Stein seems like a lock to improve on his 26 minutes in Friday’s contest. He’s a big-time value on DraftKings, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Cavaliers forward Kevin Love
Photo credit: Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports
