The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard and John Wall are the two highest-priced point guards on today’s slate, and they’re squaring off against each other in Washington. Lillard has been a slightly better fantasy producer this season, averaging 1.28 DraftKings points per minute, and owns the better Opponent Plus/Minus at +3.30. The Wizards’ defense has been atrocious for most of the season, ranking just 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 111.5 ranks third on the slate.
Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2).
That said, Wall might actually be the better value on DraftKings, where his $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s failed to return value in each of his past two games but had scored at least 48.5 DraftKings points in each of the five games prior.
Value
Lonzo Ball is in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Miami Heat. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.74 on DraftKings, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 113.25 ranks second on the slate. He’s started to grab a larger share of the PG minutes in Los Angeles — he’s currently projected for 33 in our NBA Models — and has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s one of the better values at the position across the industry.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic is currently questionable for today’s contest with a knee injury but could be worth a look on FanDuel if he’s able to suit up. The Heat are currently implied for the most points on the slate vs. the Lakers, and Dragic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 68%.
Trey Burke could be an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He doesn’t play a ton of minutes for the Knicks, but he’s typically highly involved when he’s on the court: He’s attempted 13 shots in three of his past four games. He’s capable of putting up fantasy points quickly, evidenced by his 31.7 FanDuel points in his last game.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Warriors will remain shorthanded on today’s slate, with both Steph Curry and Draymond Green still suffering with injuries. That should result in a few extra shot attempts for Klay Thompson, who has seen a usage bump of +3.2% with both players off the court this season. He’s averaged 36.5 DraftKings points and a +3.2 Plus/Minus in three games with both players out of the lineup, but the Warriors shockingly own the lowest implied team total of the day at 105.5 points.
Value
Sticking with the Warriors, Andre Iguodala should see a few extra minutes given their current injury situation. He played over 28 minutes in yesterday’s contest and remains affordable at just $3,900 on FanDuel, and Iguodala has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.13 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum has seen a price decrease of $500 over the past month on FanDuel, which could make him an interesting buy low target in a great matchup vs. the Wizards. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.70 with a comparable salary.
If you’re looking for a contrarian target with upside, Tim Hardaway Jr. could be your guy. He’s projected for just 9-12% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings and is in a nice spot vs. the Magic.
Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Knicks guard Tim Hardaway Jr. (3).
Small Forward
Studs
Today’s slate is pretty light on superstars, but not at the small forward position. LeBron James headlines the position, and his $11,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. That said, he hasn’t lived up to his lofty price tag often recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games. He’s still averaging an outstanding 1.54 DraftKings points per minute, which is the highest mark on today’s slate, but the Lakers aren’t pushing him nearly as hard as the Cavs did last season.
Kevin Durant will likely be the preferred stud option at the position with Curry and Draymond out of the lineup. He’s struggled to return value in that situation over his last two games, but his fantasy arrow is still pointing up: He’s posted a usage rate of 35.6% with both players out of the lineup this season.
Value
Evan Turner saw just 21 minutes in Portland’s most recent contest but played at least 27 minutes in each of the four games prior. He’s a nice fantasy contributor when on the floor, averaging 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season, which makes him one of the stronger value plays of the day across the industry.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Trail Blazers guard Evan Turner (1).
Fast Break
The Heat could be without both Dragic and Rodney McGruder on today’s slate, which would open up a bunch of minutes in their backcourt. One of the biggest beneficiares would be Josh Richardson, who is in the midst of the best season of his young career. He’s the only member of the team playing significant minutes at the moment and has seen a usage bump of +1.5% with Dragic off the floor this season.
Dragic’s absence would also create some value for Justise Winslow. He served as the starting point guard when Dragic missed time earlier this season and averaged 29.75 DraftKings points per game.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge has the reputation of being a stud at the PF position, but his recent play hasn’t really justified that status. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -5.07 on FanDuel over his past 10 games, and the addition of DeMar DeRozan in the offseason has put a major dent in his usage rate.
That said, he has shown some signs of life recently, scoring at least 39.7 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. His matchup vs. the Warriors isn’t the best on paper — he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.43 — but it should be much easier with Green out of the lineup. He remains priced at a slight discount on FanDuel, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 68%.
Value
Noah Vonleh is no longer starting for the Knicks but still played a nice handful of minutes in their last game. He’s averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value on his $4,000 salary.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma looks like one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s bombed in his last two games but still figures to be a big part of their rotation in games that stay competitive.
Kevon Looney played a season-high 27 minutes in the Warriors’ last game, which could make him an intriguing punt play at $3,700 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic is coming off back-to-back monster games and is in another nice spot today vs. the Knicks. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency, and Orlando’s implied team total of 110.75 represents an increase of nearly five points when compared to their season average (106.0). He’s also one of the few centers who is priced at a value on FanDuel, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nikola Vucevic
Value
Outside of Looney — who has center eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel — there isn’t a ton of value at the center position on today’s slate. That said, one guy who could be worth a look for GPPs on FanDuel is Enes Kanter. He’s seen a major reduction in playing time recently, but his salary has decreased to just $5,900 as a result. He’s capable of putting up fantasy points quickly given his average of 1.24 FanDuel points per minute and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.68 vs. the Magic.
Fast Break
It’s tough to figure out when Jusuf Nurkic is going to go off, but today’s matchup vs. the Wizards seems like a good spot. The Wizards play a traditional center in Dwight Howard, so Nurkic could see a few additional minutes to try and combat his size on the interior. Nurk has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season, and the only thing that has really stopped him has been a lack of playing time. He’s a nice value on DraftKings, where his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Only LeBron has averaged more fantasy points per minute over the past month than Hassan Whiteside. He’s another player who doesn’t always see the most consistent playing time, but he has big upside every time he takes the floor. The absence of Dragic would only help his fantasy stock: He’s seen a usage bump of +1.2% with him off the floor this season.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Nikola Vucevic
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA Today Sports
