NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Sun. 11/11): Game Stack Hawks-Lakers

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Sunday brings a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Studs

The point guard position is pretty tough today and doesn’t present a whole lot of obvious plays. That starts at the top: Damian Lillard ($9,600 FanDuel), Kyrie Irving ($8,500) and Chris Paul ($8,300) are the three players above $7,500, but they all come with terrible Opponent Plus/Minus marks. Dame and Kyrie will face each other, while Paul gets a tough Indiana squad that has held point guards 6.07 fantasy points below expectations.

As such, it could be wise to drop down to Jamal Murray ($7,500) or Trae Young ($7,300) in the lower range. Murray is projected for nearly eight more minutes than Young, although the Hawks rookie point guard does benefit from facing a bad Lakers defense and a slate-high 238.5 total. Murray will almost certainly be more popular after playing over 40 minutes last game, but Trae could be an intriguing pivot in GPPs at just $200 cheaper.

Of course, remember to find value using our Bargain Rating metric. It measures the difference in salary between DraftKings and FanDuel, and the position is much easier on the former today. Murray is just $6,900 there, and even guys like Dame ($8,300) and CP3 ($7,100) are worthy of rostering given the discount at that site.

Value

Rajon Rondo‘s minutes have dipped a bit since the beginning of the year, but he still played between 25-30 minutes in each of the past four games. Again, value is hard to come by at this position — Emmanuel Mudiay actually leads all FanDuel point guards in Projected Plus/Minus — so I don’t mind taking a chance on Rondo, especially against a Hawks squad that ranks first in the league in pace, but 26th in defensive efficiency. Atlanta has the highest turnover rate in the league, which gives Rondo and the Lakers nice upside with valuable steals.

Fast Break

I guess Mudiay is worth a look, if you don’t mind the risk. He’s unlikely to put up a huge game — he has gone between 23 and 27 fantasy points in each of his last three — but he’s likely to get 22-ish minutes and has a decent usage rate. At just $4,200 on FanDuel, especially since the site now counts only the eight highest-scoring players — he’s a punt play in consideration.

Eric Bledsoe is an interesting pivot down from Murray in the same game (if you don’t want to pay up to the higher-priced options, who are always in play in tournaments). Bledsoe has hit value in each of his past two games, and he easily leads the position with 2.47 steals + blocks per game. I wouldn’t go too crazy, though, as the Bucks are on a tough back-to-back in Denver.

Shooting Guard

Stud

You would’ve never believed this before the season, but James Harden and Victor Oladipo are the exact same price on DraftKings at $9,400. It’s one of the cheapest salaries we’ve seen from Harden ever, although it’s hard to argue it’s not warranted: He’s missed value in each of his past five games.

But there’s room for optimism: The minutes and usage are there, and he’s played a tough schedule. The Rockets have played six of their last seven on the road, and the only home game in that stretch was against the Utah Jazz.

The Rockets and Pacers just played last week, and Harden went for 50.0 DraftKings points. Dipo went for just 38.5, which is obviously the only real blemish in his current play:

Dipo has been the better player this year, but now that their salaries have made them even, it’s really hard for me not to take the higher ceiling Harden offers.

Value

Hawks rookie shooting guard Kevin Huerter is just $3,400 on DraftKings and has played between 28 and 32 minutes in each of his past three games. He’s posted a low usage rate during that time and has still hit value given the low salary. He’ll benefit from an extremely fast pace in this Hawks-Lakers game, which makes it very hard for him to fail at almost minimum price. He easily leads the position with a huge +7.1 DraftKings Projected Plus/Minus.

Fast Break

CJ McCollum is incredibly cheap today on DraftKings at just $6,200. Sure he’s playing a tough Celtics defense, but he showed he can go off even in tough matchups when he put up 64.75 DraftKings points in a 40-point game against the Milwaukee Bucks. He’s pretty scoring-dependent, but he’s projected for 35 minutes and one of the higher usage rates at the position. Take advantage in tournaments, where he’ll be less popular given the matchup.

Jaylen Brown has hit value in five of his past six games, with his game in Utah being the lone exception. Despite the consistent play of late, he now owns his lowest price of the season at just $4,400 on DraftKings. He’s projected for 31.5 minutes and a 20% usage rate.

Small Forward

Studs

The two highest ceilings — by nearly 10 points — on the entire slate belong to Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James The question is whether it’s wise today to pay up for those guys in cash games. It’s a good question, and this is honestly a fairly tough slate. There are some decent values but not many sure-fire studs with which to pair them.

LeBron has a beautiful matchup against the Hawks, who have allowed SFs to score 4.19 points over salary-based expectations — that’s easily the best mark at the position. The problem is that the Lakers are large 11-point favorites, and it’s fair to question whether LeBron will really push himself in a potential blowout game in November.

Giannis doesn’t have that problem: He’s currently a 3.5-point underdog against the Nuggets. But he’s on a road back-to-back in Denver, which has historically been the toughest place to play a back-to-back. He went over 41 minutes last night in a tough overtime loss to the LA Clippers. He went for 27 points, 18 rebounds, five steals and two blocks. He’s got to be tired, and that’s slightly worrying at his slate-high price tags.

Both of those guys have high ceilings for a reason, but you’ll have to take a risk in cash games given the reasons listed above.

Value

Knicks rookie Kevin Knox has been returning from injury, and he got up to over 24 minutes yesterday against the Toronto Raptors. He had a fine game, but the minutes and nearly 20% usage are encouraging marks.

He’ll go up today against an Orlando team that is already without Jonathan Isaac and could also be without Aaron Gordon, who will be a game-time decision with a sprained left ankle. This game opened at 207.5 but has since moved to 211.5, and the Knicks could have an easier time scoring if both of those long wing defenders are absent.

Fast Break

I’m not a huge Evan Turner fan, but this season he’s averaged a +5.30 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and has hit value in 75% of his games. He’s been right around 30 minutes in each of his past two games, and we’re projecting him right around that today against a tough Boston team. Even if you ding him for that matchup, he’s still likely underpriced at just $4,800 on FanDuel, where he comes with an 86% Bargain Rating.

Power Forward

Studs

As mentioned above, Aaron Gordon is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. He’s currently the highest-priced power forward option on FanDuel by $1,100, so he’s definitely an important guy to monitor. It’s unclear whether we’ll get any hint on his status before the 7:30 p.m. ET tipoff, which is 30 minutes after the slate locks. If he does play, he’s in a great spot against a Knicks squad that ranks bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed.

The next highest-priced guy is Jayson Tatum, who finally had a good game last time out, going for 44.6 FanDuel points in right at 36 minutes against the Utah Jazz. The question, of course, is whether that performance is sustainable with Kyrie back — or sustainable period.

Tatum had a ridiculous five steals, which counted for 15 points. He exceeded his salary-based expectations by 15 points, so without those he was right on the expected

number. He has a nice ceiling in a weak position, but he could be worth a fade if the public jumps on him after his performance last game.

Value

Kyle Kuzma has a large +4.40 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings against a bad Hawks squad. Atlanta has allowed the third-most transition opportunities and has been the second-worst team on efficiency allowed on those. That seems suboptimal against a Lakers team that easily ranks first in offensive transition opportunities. Load up on the Lakers today.

Fast Break

You may have never heard of Omari Spellman, but he is indeed an active NBA player and he has gone for 28.0 and 48.0 FanDuel points over his past two games, with a double-double in each. He’s averaging a solid 0.94 fantasy points per minutes, and we’re projecting him for around 26-27 minutes today. He’ll benefit from the up-and-down nature of this game, and he doesn’t require a large investment at just $4,400 on FanDuel. It’s an uninspiring position today, so paying down could be worthwhile.

Center

Studs

The four highest-priced options on FanDuel at the center position are Nikola Jokic ($9,500), Nikola Vucevic ($8,700), Jusuf Nurkic ($8,100) and Clint Capela ($8,000).

Jokic has the highest ceiling and is coming off a massive game in which he scored 69.7 fantasy points, posting a ridiculous 37-21 line. After shooting less than 10 times for four straight games, he took 22 field goal attempts in that loss to the Nets. His 41.1% usage rate was easily the highest mark of the season.

The question is whether he’ll continue to be aggressive or go back to the Jokic of the prior games. One concern about the matchup: The Bucks allow the fewest shots at the rim but the third-highest percentage of 3-pointers. Does that mean it’s more of a Murray game?

Capela is probably the best value of the group (especially on DraftKings), although I don’t mind taking the upside of Vucevic. He’s coming off an impressive outing and now gets a poor Knicks squad. Further, he’ll have even more upside if Gordon is ruled out: Per the FantasyLabs on/off tool, Vucevic has averaged a 28.3% usage rate with Gordon and Isaac off the court.

Value

In what has been a theme, I think it’s wise to look at the Lakers centers in JaVale McGee ($6,100 on DraftKings) and even Tyson Chandler ($3,100). Atlanta plays fast and also ranks 28th in offensive rebound rate and 24th in defensive rebound rate. The game environment is just too good to ignore these guys.

Fast Break

From our FantasyLabs news feed on the Gordon/Isaac injuries:

Gordon, Evan Fournier, and Nikola Vucevic have all averaged at least 35.0 DraftKings points per game over the last four, and Mohamed Bamba will get the narrative game as he returns to his hometown to play in Madison Square Garden for the first time in his life, and he’s averaged a team-best +4.9% usage rate differential over the past four games. The Magic will catch the Knicks on the second game of a back-to-back. If Gordon is ruled out, Bamba may slide into the starting lineup and Jarell Martin could see an increase in minutes at power forward.

Good luck!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.

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