The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Steph Curry hasn’t really been needed in the Warriors’ past two games, which they’ve won by an average of 32 points. He’s still managed to scored at least 42 FanDuel points in each contest despite averaging just 29.5 minutes per game, and he should see more playing time if today’s game vs. the Mavericks stays more competitive. As usual, the Warriors’ lead the slate with an implied team total of 116.75.
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30).
Value
Colin Sexton has seen a price decrease of -$800 on FanDuel over the past month and is coming off a strong game in his last outing. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Lakers, who have played at the third fastest pace this season. It results in a pace differential (paceD) of +7.1, which is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin.
Fast Break
Lonzo Ball should continue to see a bump with LeBron James and Rajon Rondo out of the lineup. He’s averaged 34.9 FanDuel points over his past three games and has increased his usage and assists rates with both James and Rondo off the court this season. He’s in a great spot vs. the Cavaliers, who rank last in defensive efficiency by a considerable margin, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 115.75 ranks second on the slate.
Dennis Smith Jr. is currently questionable after missing the past two games, but he could be an interesting option if he’s able to suit up. He’s been priced down to just $4,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s also seen a slight boost in production with JJ Barea off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.85 DraftKings points per minute.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is coming off arguably his most impressive performance of the season, dropping 43 points, 12 assists, and 10 rebounds in just 29.5 minutes vs. the Cavaliers. Not even blowouts can stop this man at this point. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and no one on the slate is projected for more than his 39.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a pretty lethal combination.
He’s in a subpar spot today vs. the Magic, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.92, but does it honestly even matter? Harden is as matchup-proof as it gets, possessing the highest floor and ceiling every take he takes the court. There’s no reason not to go back to the well on today’s slate.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Terrence Ross could be a nice source of savings. He’s priced at just $4,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games.
Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Orlando Magic guard Terrence Ross (31).
That includes scoring 37.0 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. He’s currently projected for 28.5 minutes and has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him one of the strongest plays of the day from a points per dollar perspective.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He hasn’t been very productive recently but still figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries with James and Rondo out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of +2.2% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute. Today’s matchup vs. the Cavs could be an excellent time to buy low on him.
Luka Doncic leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,400 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 81%. He would see a big boost in value if Smith Jr. is unable to suit up: He’s averaged 45.72 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in 14 games without DSJ this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant headlines the small forward position on today’s slate. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his salary has decreased by -$700 over the past two weeks. The price decrease has been warranted – he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past six games – but he’s seen reduced minutes in a lot of blowouts recently. He should garner minimal ownership given the presence of Harden, which makes him an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Cedi Osman has been a decent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.43 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,200 for today’s matchup vs. the Lakers but is projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.70 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Harrison Barnes is not an exciting target in DFS, but he is pretty reliable. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 93% on FanDuel over the past month, yet his salary has actually decreased by $200 over that time frame. He also figures to see a slight bump in production if Smith Jr. is ultimately ruled out.
Power Forward
Stud
Kyle Kuzma looks like one of the top options of the day regardless of position. He’s affordable across the industry at the moment and has been the Lakers best producer with Rondo and James out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of +5.0% in that situation, resulting in an average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. Kuzma has played upwards of 40 minutes in games that have stayed competitive recently, which gives him big upside for his salary.
Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers forward Kyle Kuzma (0).
Value
Khem Birch could be an interesting punt play today at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s been pretty productive when given the opportunity to play recently, averaging 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s played at least 17 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 22.0 DraftKings points in those contests. He could make sense in a stars and scrubs type of lineup.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap looks like a steal at just $6,000 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s averaged 1.0 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has played more than 30 minutes in games that have stayed competitive recently. He’s also in a decent spot vs. the Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.31.
Aaron Gordon is another option priced at a discount on DraftKings. He’s coming off a big performance in his last game, scoring 47.0 DraftKings points vs. the Celtics, and Gordon has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.77 with a comparable salary this season.
Center
Stud
Center looks like a good position to pay up at on today’s slate. It starts at the top with Nikola Jokic, who snapped a string of eight straight performances with a positive Plus/Minus in his last game. That said, his price has decreased by $600 after that game, which could make this a good time to go right back to him. His 12 Pro Trends rank second at the position on DraftKings, and his ceiling trails on Harden’s on today’s slate.
Pictured: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, Photo Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Value
Tristan Thompson is too cheap across the industry right now, but he’s particularly underpriced at $6,100 on FanDuel. He’s been effective on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but has seen reduced minutes recently because of blowouts. He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.71.
Fast Break
As usual, there are a host of high-end center options that seem underpriced on DraftKings:
- Nikola Vucevic — $8,700 (93% Bargain Rating)
- Jusuf Nurkic — $8,300 (93% Bargain Rating)
- Clint Capela — $7,800 (99% Bargain Rating)
Nurkic has the best matchup of the trio, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.75 vs. the Denver Nuggets. This is also a #RevengeGame for Nurkic, so he could be extra motivated against his old team.
Vucevic leads the position with 13 Pro Trends and has averaged an elite 1.50 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He appears to have the highest ceiling of the group, although his playing time has taken a bit of a hit recently.
Capela looks like the best pure value and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.41 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s thrived in the pick-and-roll with Harden recently, and that correlation makes them nice options to stack together.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Pictured: Lakers F Kyle Kuzma
Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
