The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
De’Aaron Fox has been a nice source of value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past 11 games on DraftKings. He’s played at least 37.5 minutes in three of his past four games and has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him a strong target at $7,100 on DraftKings. He’s also in an excellent spot vs. the Chicago Bulls, who rank just 26th in defensive efficiency. The Kings’ resulting implied team total of 119.25 ranks first on the slate.
Value
D.J. Augustin is the best pure value at the position on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s seen a solid bump in playing time recently with backup point guard Isaiah Briscoe out of the lineup and is coming off 40.1 FanDuel points in his last game. He’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.40.
Fast Break
Chris Paul has the potential to be one of the strongest options on today’s slate. James Harden is currently questionable vs. the Timberwolves with a cervical strain, and Paul would undoubtedly see a boost in value if he’s unable to suit up.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Paul
Paul has seen a usage bump of +6.1% with Harden off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s averaged 46.88 DraftKings points per game in four contests without Harden this season. He’s priced at just $6,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will be without Jeff Teague, Robert Covington, and Loul Deng tonight vs. the Rockets, while Derrick Rose is questionable. That should result in a healthy amount of playing time for Tyus Jones. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Jones has averaged a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +11.89 on FanDuel with a comparable minute projection this season (per the Trends tool). He’s underpriced at just $4,900 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
D’Angelo Russell has seen a price decrease of -$1,100 over the past month on DraftKings, which makes him a strong buy-low target on today’s slate. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has played at least 31 minutes in each of his past three competitive games. He’s in a strong spot vs. the Clippers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.24.
Value
Buddy Hield has put together an excellent season for the Kings and has averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s underpriced at just $6,700 on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Bulls, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.89 over his past 10 games, and his 11 Pro Trends trail only Harden at the position.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins is another member of the Timberwolves who should benefit from their current injury situation. He’s seen a usage bump of +1.9% with Teague off the court since the team traded away Jimmy Butler, and that number has increased to +4.7% with both Teague and Rose off the court. He’s averaged 34.0 DraftKings points per game in 10 contests without Teague and Rose, which would make him a strong value at $5,500 if Rose is unable to suit up.
Eric Gordon is priced very fairly across the industry and would be one of the prime beneficiaries if Harden is ultimately ruled out. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +6.6% with Harden off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also averaged 33.3 minutes per game with Harden out of the lineup this season.
Small Forward
Stud
The small forward position lacks a true headliner on today’s slate, but Danilo Gallinari deserves some attention. He’s averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games. The Clippers’ implied team total of 119.0 points ranks second on the slate, and his $7,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%.
Value
Jonathan Isaac owns the top matchup at the position vs. the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.05 on DraftKings. His salary has decreased by -$800 on DraftKings over the past 10 games, and his current $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes and has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Harrison Barnes has been a reliable target recently, posting a 90% Consistency Rating over the past month on FanDuel. He remains affordable at just $5,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%, and is in an excellent spot vs. the Chicago Bulls. He’s one of the strongest options at the position for cash games.
Joe Harris is an interesting buy-low target vs. the Clippers. He’s played 23 minutes or less in two of his past three games, but both of those contests have been blowouts. He should return to his normal workload if today’s contest stays competitive, and he’s averaged 0.74 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s underpriced at $4,700 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
John Collins has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past eight games on DraftKings and has averaged an elite 1.45 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s seen a massive price increase on FanDuel, but he remains affordable at just $7,500 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98% in a strong matchup vs. the Magic. They’ve posted a bottom-10 rebound rate this season, and Collins’ 12 Pro Trends are the most at the power forward position.
Value
Ed Davis doesn’t play many minutes for the Nets — he’s logged 18.3 or less in each of his past four games — but he makes up for it by being extremely productive when on the court. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute this season and is in a wonderful spot today vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.32 is the second-highest mark at the position on FanDuel, and he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his $3,900 salary.
Fast Break
The top matchup at the position belong to Montrezl Harrell, who owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.00 on DraftKings. He’s not playing as many minutes as he was earlier in the season, but he has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has big upside at just $6,600 on DraftKings.
Harry Giles has seen his role decrease since Marvin Bagley returned to the lineup, but he should still see a solid handful of minutes today vs. the Bulls. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his $3,900 salary on DraftKings.
Center
Studs
The center position should be a popular one to pay up at today. It starts with Karl-Anthony Towns, who is priced at $10,000 on DraftKings. He’s averaged a slate-best 1.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and could be asked to carry a larger workload if Rose is ultimately ruled out.
Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32).
He’s averaged 51.75 DraftKings points in 11 games without Teague and Rose this season despite playing just 32.6 minutes per game. Towns has played as many as 37.5 minutes recently, so he could definitely see more minutes on today’s slate. His 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, where his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Nikola Vucevic is another option worth considering. He has an elite matchup vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.82 on DraftKings, and Vucevic has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.17 in comparable matchups this season.
Value
Ivica Zubac has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.54 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s played at least 22.2 minutes in five of his past six games, which makes him a strong value at just $4,700. He’s also in an elite spot vs. the Nets, who have been crushed by opposing centers all season. His resulting Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.14 is the top mark at the position.
Fast Break
Willie Cauley-Stein hasn’t displayed a ton of upside recently, but he’s been a consistent producer. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on FanDuel and has a good opportunity to post another strong performance vs. the Chicago Bulls. They rank just 27th in team rebound rate in addition to struggling on the defensive end.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Nets G D’Angelo Russell (1)
Photo Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
