The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a three-game slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been a fantastic source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.87 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He scored 56.5 DraftKings points in his most recent contest despite playing just 32 minutes, and he’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month.
He’s priced at just $11,000 on DraftKings for today’s contest vs. the Boston Celtics, which history suggests is just too cheap. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.65 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool), and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel and has the safest floor on today’s slate.
Value
Dennis Smith Jr. is expected to make his Knicks debut today vs. the Grizzlies and has massive upside in New York. He will likely serve as their offensive focal point and has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute when playing with Luka Doncic and J.J. Barea off the court this season. The Grizzlies are a brutal matchup – they’ve played at the slowest pace in the league this season – but it’s hard to ignore that kind of upside at his current salary.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past four games and leads today’s PG position on FanDuel in Projected Plus/Minus. He could be an intriguing pivot given that the public will likely pay up or go with DSJ in his debut.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG position is pretty thin at the top, with only Lou Williams possessing a salary above $5,600 on FanDuel. That said, Williams definitely deserves some attention. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.35 over his past 10 games on FanDuel and has increased his fantasy production to 1.31 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s also seen more minutes for the Clippers recently, logging at least 31 minutes in four of his past five games.
Unfortunately, he’s in a subpar spot today vs. the Toronto Raptors. They’ve been tough defensively this season, giving Williams an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.18. He still possesses a high ceiling, but there are safer options available.
Value
Justin Holiday has played huge minutes for the Grizzlies recently, logging at least 35 in three of his past four games. He hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling over that time frame, scoring 25.25 DraftKings points or fewer in each of those games, but he doesn’t need to do more than that to be a value at his current price tag.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown has had a resurgent past month for the Celtics, averaging 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. He’s been an excellent source of value over his past 10 games as well, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.76. He’s a nice value at $4,700 given his Bargain Rating of 89%.
Patrick Beverley is coming off a subpar game in his last outing, scoring just 20.0 DraftKings points vs. the Pistons. That said, he continues to play big minutes for the Clippers and has posted an elite +11.74 Plus/Minus over his past 10 games on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position seems like one where you’re going to want to pay up today. It starts with Paul George, who has been a legit MVP candidate for the Thunder this season. He’s coming off 67.25 DraftKings points in his most recent contest and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.09 over his past 10 games. He’s been priced up to $12,000 on FanDuel – which makes him more expensive than Westbrook – but he remains reasonably priced at just $10,000 on DraftKings.
The top implied team total on the slate belongs to the Raptors, who are currently implied for 119.75 points. Kawhi Leonard hasn’t displayed the same elite ceiling as George recently but has been just as reliable, posting a Consistency Rating of 87% over the past month on DraftKings. He might be the preferred target on FanDuel, where he’s $2,000 cheaper than George and has a better matchup vs. the Clippers.
Value
Kevin Knox has seen a decline in fantasy production over the past month but has shown signs of life over his past three games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of them, including scoring 32.0 fantasy points in his most recent contest. He’s another member of the Knicks who seems underpriced on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris has a difficult matchup today vs. the Raptors but is worth some consideration at just $8,500 on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 70%, which is the top mark among the high-priced SFs, and he leads the position in Pro Trends. He will also like benefit from the continued absence of Danilo Gallinari, who is out again.
Power Forward
Stud
The Raptors have leaned a little heavier on Serge Ibaka recently. He’s totaled at least 31 minutes in seven of his past nine games; he exceeded 39 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s in a potential smash spot today vs. the Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.18 on DraftKings. Ibaka is also a great value at just $6,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Luke Kornet was limited to just 16.5 minutes in his first game back from an injury but still managed to record 13.5 DraftKings points. He could see more minutes in today’s contest, although DeAndre Jordan starting at center does limit his appeal. Still, he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need much playing time to potentially pay off his $4,100 salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling for the Celtics when Kyrie Irving has been in the lineup, but he has posted a Consistency Rating of 93% over the past month on DraftKings. His salary has also decreased by -$600 over that time frame, and his current $5,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Pascal Siakam also deserves some attention for the Raptors today. He doesn’t have as good of an individual matchup as Ibaka but has averaged a superior 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s also slightly cheaper at $6,800 on FanDuel and is currently projected for more minutes in our NBA Models.
Center
Stud
Steven Adams has been a decent fantasy option recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.52 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has still decreased by $1,000 over that time frame, making him an appealing target today vs. the Celtics at just $6,100. The Celtics rank just 21st in rebound rate this season, so Adams has the potential to do some damage on the glass at a minimum.
Value
Joakim Noah has actually been a surprisingly good addition for the Grizzlies. He’s also helped fantasy owners recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past six games. He likely won’t see 21.5 minutes like he did in his last game with Jaren Jackson Jr. expected to suit up, but he doesn’t need to at $3,900 on FanDuel. He’s averaged a stout 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.94 vs. the Knicks.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan is a major X-factor today. He could draw the start and play big minutes for the Knicks or find himself sitting on the bench for the majority of the game. That said, he’s priced at just $5,400 on DraftKings, giving him a position-high Bargain Rating of 98%, which makes him an interesting target for GPPs. He’ll also likely garner minimal ownership given the matchup and the uncertainty of his role.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Knicks G Dennis Smith Jr.
Photo Credit: Adam Hunger-USA Today Sports
