The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a five-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook headlines the PG position coming off one of his best games of the season. But that performance came with Paul George out of the lineup, and George is expected to make his return on Sunday.
Westbrook’s usage rate of 39.7% was significantly higher than usual, so he’s likely due for some regression. His salary has also increased across the industry, which makes him an appealing fade candidate against the Mavericks.
If you do want to pay up at PG, Damian Lillard might be the superior option. He’s priced at $8,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.32 with a comparable salary (per our Trends tool). He also has an excellent matchup against the 76ers, who have played at the seventh-fastest pace, giving Lillard an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.79.
Value
The Timberwolves will be without Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose, so Tyus Jones should handle the majority of minutes at PG. He’s averaged 0.79 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which makes him one of the best values of the day at $4,500. He also has a nice matchup against the Heat, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.52.
Fast Break
Rajon Rondo and LeBron James remain out for the Lakers, which means that Lonzo Ball should continue to play big minutes. He’s coming off 42.5 in his most recent contest and has averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at a discount on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
The theme of the day at PG is injuries. Ben Simmons is another player who could benefit from his team being shorthanded with Joel Embiid currently listed as questionable. Simmons played 40 minutes in his only game with Embiid out of the lineup this season, resulting in 49.0 DraftKings points and a +8.5 Plus/Minus. Simmons is appealing on DraftKings, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jimmy Butler would also benefit from Embiid’s absence. Butler dominated in his only game without Embiid this season, scoring 61.5 DraftKings points and leading the team with a 35.9% usage rate. Butler has also seen a drastic price reduction recently on DraftKings, and his current $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He would be almost impossible to avoid if Embiid is ruled out.
Value
Zach LaVine is another SG who has seen a massive price reduction on DraftKings. He’s seen a salary decrease of $2,100 over the past month, and his current $6,100 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s played reduced minutes since returning from an injury two games ago, but that figures to increase moving forward.
LaVine has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need to play much more to be a value at his current price tag.
Fast Break
Josh Hart looks like a massive value on FanDuel for the shorthanded Lakers. He’s played at least 33 minutes in back-to-back games, scoring at least 29.8 FanDuel points in both. That said, his salary has barely budged, and his current $3,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
The Kings could be an appealing target against the Lakers, who have played at a breakneck pace with LeBron out of the lineup. Pace has not been an issue for the Kings this season — they currently rank second in the league — so this game should feature lots of possessions. That could make Bogdan Bogdanovic an appealing target at just $5,600 on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Stud
The Raptors will be without Kyle Lowry for the seventh straight game, which puts Kawhi Leonard squarely on the radar.
Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard
Leonard struggled to just 32.5 DraftKings points in just 29.5 minutes in his last game but has still averaged 47.11 DraftKings points per game in seven games with Lowry out of the lineup. He’s priced at a discount on DraftKings, where his $9,200 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Moe Harkless has slowly but surely regained a big role in the Blazers’ rotation recently. He’s logged at least 31 minutes in each of his past two games, including a season-high 37 on Saturday against the Warriors. He’s scored at least 31.6 FanDuel points in each of those contests, and he’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable minute projections and salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.06.
Fast Break
Tom Thibodeau had a habit of running certain players ragged during his time in Chicago, and Robert Covington appears to be that guy in Minnesota. He’s projected for 38 minutes and has averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That combination makes him an appealing target at $6,500.
Justise Winslow has dominated over his past three games, averaging 43.27 FanDuel points per game. He posted a massive 32.5% usage rate in his most recent contest and appears to be gaining confidence in his scoring ability. He’s been priced up to $6,400 on FanDuel, but that still results in a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Power Forward
Stud
Kyle Kuzma has taken on a larger offensive burden with LeBron and Rondo out of the lineup and has scored at least 37.1 FanDuel points in each of his past two games. Kuzma leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel and the Lakers’ implied team total of 116.75 ranks first on the slate. He’s tough to avoid on FanDuel, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Maxi Kleber could be an interesting option. He’s started each of the past two games for the Mavericks to combat the size of the Pelicans and tallied at least 20.25 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so his production is not really unexpected given his increase in playing time.
There’s a chance that the Mavs could opt to shift him back to the bench against the Thunder — they don’t play nearly as big of a lineup as the Pelicans — but he should see enough playing time to potentially return value regardless.
Fast Break
The Raptors feature a pair of appealing PF options in Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam.
Ibaka has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and owns an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.64 against the Bulls. He also looks like the better value of the two on DraftKings, where his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Siakam has a slightly tougher individual matchup but is projected for more minutes in our NBA Models.
Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Pascal Siakam
Playing both players together is definitely a viable strategy.
Wendell Carter Jr. is coming off a massive game, scoring 45.6 FanDuel points against the Wizards. He’s in a much tougher spot against the Raptors, but obviously has upside at his current salary.
Center
Stud
Willie Cauley-Stein is far from the priciest option at the center position but might be the best pure value on this slate. He’s played at least 34 minutes in three of his past four games and has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
He’s almost undoubtedly underpriced at $6,800 for Sunday’s contest against the Lakers, who have struggled against opposing centers all season. He tallied 38.0 DraftKings points against the Lakers in his last contest.
Value
If Embiid is ruled out, Mike Muscala would likely become one of the highest-owned value options on the slate. He’s priced at $3,600 and has averaged 0.81 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He logged just under 30 minutes in his first game without Embiid this season, resulting in 30.6 FanDuel points.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic looks like a major value on DraftKings, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. His playing time can fluctuate on a night-to-night basis, but he has played at least 32 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s averaged a stout 1.32 DraftKings points per minute on the season, so he has big upside if he continues to play consistent minutes.
There are limited stud options to pay up for on this slate, which could make Karl-Anthony Towns an interesting option. He’s not in a great spot against the Heat as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.26, but his ceiling projection does rank fourth on the slate. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, where his $9,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 68%.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Timberwolves G Tyus Jones
Photo Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
