The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall headlines the position on Sunday’s slate, but he’s failed to provide much value recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.40 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, yet his salary has still increased by $800 over that span.
He’s an interesting target against the Lakers. The Wizards appear to be in a pretty good spot: The Lakers have played at the fourth-fastest pace this season, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 114.5 is third on the slate. That said, Wall doesn’t appear to have a very good individual matchup given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.08. He’s definitely in play on a small slate, but there appear to be better options.
Value
Tim Frazier looks like one of best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 32.5 minutes in each of his past three games. He’s in a phenomenal spot against the Heat as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.26.
Fast Break
The Nuggets have arguably the most difficult matchup of the day against the Raptors, which results in a slate-low implied team total of 104.5 points. That said, Jamal Murray might be too cheap to pass up at $6,300 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models.
De’Aaron Fox looks like the best value at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%. He’s been outstanding on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute, and his salary has decreased by $600 over the past month.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jrue Holiday has been the most consistent producer in fantasy this season, posting a “dud” in just one of his first 30 contests. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. His salary has decreased by $700 from its peak, which makes Holiday an excellent target against the Heat.
Value
Dwyane Wade is questionable as of writing, but he could be a nice value if he’s able to suit up. The Heat are still without starting PG Goran Dragic, and Wade has led the team with an average Plus/Minus of +3.20 on FanDuel with Dragic out of the lineup. Wade has led the team in both usage rate and assist rate in those contests, so he can do a lot of damage in limited playing time. He’s priced at $4,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
No one on the slate is projected for more minutes than Bradley Beal, which gives him one of the safest floors. He’s averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has a better individual matchup than Wall.
Bogdan Bogdanovic failed to post a positive Plus/Minus in his last game, but that’s been a rare occurrence for him recently: He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 13 of his past 15 games on DraftKings. He still played 34 minutes in his last game, which is encouraging for his fantasy prospects. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his current $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is coming off a dominant performance against the Hornets on Saturday, scoring 61.5 FanDuel points in just 30 minutes. The Lakers lead the slate with an implied team total of 117.0 in a nice matchup against the Wizards, who currently rank seventh in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency.
The biggest question for the Lakers is how to approach them on the second leg of a back-to-back. On one hand, the fact that LeBron was able to rest in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s game does mitigate some concern. On the other hand, LeBron is in his 16th season, so it’s not all that surprising that he’s struggled to an average Plus/Minus of -5.44 with zero rest this season (per the Trends tool).
He’s definitely worth considering on DraftKings, where his $10,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%, but he carries more risk than usual.
Value
Justise Winslow moved into the starting lineup in Miami’s last game, but it didn’t help him from a fantasy perspective. He played just 24 minutes and struggled to just 12.5 DraftKings points. That said, it was an extremely difficult matchup against the Grizzlies, and Winslow has still managed an average Plus/Minus of +7.01 over his past 10 games on DraftKings.
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justise Winslow
He has a much friendlier matchup against the Pelicans, and his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
The Wizards could be shorthanded. Kelly Oubre and Austin Rivers were both traded to the Suns, and Trevor Ariza doesn’t figure to be ready to make his Washington debut. Otto Porter is also a game-time decision, but he figures to see a ton of playing time if he’s able to suit up. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
If Porter can’t go, look for Jeff Green to carry a massive workload. He’s averaged a solid 0.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is priced at $4,400.
Finally, Sam Dekker could also factor into the rotation, and he’s priced at the near minimum across the industry. He’s an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) and should carry minimal ownership if Porter is active.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has scored at least 41 points in each of his past two games and has been the top fantasy producer this season. He’s averaged an elite 1.70 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and routinely plays around 40 minutes for the Pelicans. The result is an average Plus/Minus of +6.51 over his past 10 games.
He’s the most expensive player on the slate by a considerable margin, but he still looks like an incredible value on DraftKings: His $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He also leads all players with 13 Pro Trends, which makes him tough to avoid on a small slate.
Value
The PF position for the Nuggets could provide some value. Trey Lyles has started two of the past three games and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five contests on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has solid upside at his current salary across the industry.
Mason Plumlee started the game that Lyles didn’t recently and has PF eligibility on DraftKings. Plumlee has been even more valuable recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.22 over his past 10 games, and his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged an elite 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he could be the preferred option of the two.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris is another player who could see a boost in playing time for the shorthanded Wizards. He’s been pretty pedestrian recently but has shown the ability to go for 40+ fantasy points earlier this season. He also has one of the better individual matchups on the team, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.14.
Pascal Siakam is currently questionable for the Raptors, and his absence would likely force Serge Ibaka into a big role. Jonas Valanciunas remains out, which would leave Ibaka as one of the lone big men on the roster. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has a massive ceiling if he sees a boost in playing time.
Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Kuzma
Finally, don’t forget about Kyle Kuzma. He struggled on Saturday, but that’s not all that surprising given that he played just 27.5 minutes in a blowout. He should return to his normal workload if Sunday’s game is closer, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.80 over his past 10 games on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Julius Randle has taken advantage of a boost in playing time recently, positing a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past six games on DraftKings. He’s averaged an elite 1.44 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has a nice matchup against the Heat. He’s been priced up to $8,100 on DraftKings, but that still feels too cheap given his recent production.
Value
JaVale McGee wasn’t a lock to play on Saturday, but ultimately ended up playing and scoring 34.0 DraftKings. He did that in fewer than 18 minutes, and he’s proven that he can do a lot of damage in limited playing time. He’s a strong value at $4,700 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan has not bee a particularly strong fantasy asset recently, but this could be a good time to buy low on him. He’s played at least 32 minutes in each of his past two games, and his salary has decreased by more than $1,000 over the past few weeks on FanDuel. He’s also in a nice spot against the Kings: His Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.89 ranks second at the position.
Cheick Diallo could be an interesting contrarian target with upside. He’s seen a slight bump in playing time given the injury to Mirotic and has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings and has 30-point upside if he sees more minutes than expected.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: LeBron James
Photo Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
