The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Point Guard
Studs
Ben Simmons returned to the 76ers’ lineup Wednesday and showed no ill effects from his back injury, playing 37.5 minutes and scoring 46.1 FanDuel points. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three games that he managed to finish, but his salary has still decreased by $1,400 from its peak on FanDuel. The Sixers’ implied team total of 117.75 ranks second on the slate, so this looks like a nice opportunity to buy relatively low on Simmons.
On the other side of the matchup with Charlotte, Kemba Walker has been balling out to start the season for the Hornets. He’s posted a career-high usage rate of 33.3%, resulting in an average of 1.42 DraftKings points per minute. He’s affordable on DraftKings at just $8,000 (evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 93%) and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Charlotte Hornets guard Kemba Walker (15) drives around Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade.
Value
Rajon Rondo is set to make his return from suspension after landing the spit heard round the world. He has averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute to begin the season and is currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. That combination of playing time and production makes him a solid value at $5,900 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Fast Break
Malcolm Brogdon has seen a lot of playing time in the Bucks’ most competitive games this season. He has averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute, but it’s hard to ignore someone routinely playing at least 30 minutes at just $4,500 on DraftKings.
Mike Conley and the Grizzlies are in one of the best spots of the day against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns have allowed the fourth-most points per 100 possessions to begin the season, and they’re also in one of the largest pace-up spots of the day. Conley has historically crushed in comparable pace-up situations, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.59 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Studs
DeMar DeRozan has transitioned well in San Antonio after nine seasons in Toronto. He has averaged 26.5 points through his first four games, and his usage rate of 31.3% is the second-highest mark of his career.
He’s in a fantastic spot vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, who have played at the second-fastest pace in the league to start the season. DeRozan crushed them for 63.60 FanDuel points — albeit in an overtime game — and the Spurs’ implied team total of 114.25 ranks fifth on the slate. He’s one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan (10).
Jrue Holiday isn’t exactly priced like a stud on DraftKings, but could provide stud-like production Saturday. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends, and shooting guards with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salaries have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +4.81 on DraftKings. He has a tough matchup vs. the Utah Jazz, but that could result in lower ownership for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
No one at this position is projected for more minutes than Chicago’s Justin Holiday, who is priced at just $4,500 on DraftKings. Historically, shooting guards with a comparable minute projection and salary have posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.64, so he’s an appealing option for those looking to spend down at the position.
Fast Break
Victor Oladipo is having a slow start to the season, averaging a Plus/Minus of -1.34 on FanDuel through his first five games. That said, this could be a good time to buy low: He’s priced at just $8,300 and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.47 with a comparable salary last season. He also has a good matchup vs. the Cavs, who have allowed the third-most points per 100 possessions to start the season.
Eric Bledsoe has shooting-guard eligibility on DraftKings and has posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating to start the season. Despite his production, he has seen a salary decrease of $700 since the beginning of the season, which makes him an appealing target against the Orlando Magic.
Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo failed to post a positive Plus/Minus for the first time this season in his most recent contest (a 125-95 win over Minnesota on Friday), but his results were still pretty impressive. He averaged 1.81 DraftKings points per minute — right in line with his average to start the season — but his overall fantasy production was dragged down by just 23.5 minutes of playing time.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo.
He should return to his usual workload Saturday, and has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Magic: The Bucks’ implied team total of 114.75 ranks fourth on the slate, and Giannis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.01 on DraftKings.
The Lakers are getting closer to full strength, which means LeBron James could be a bit of an afterthought Saturday. That said, he has a good matchup vs. the San Antonio Spurs, who rank last in terms of defensive efficiency to start the season. The Lakers’ implied team total of 115.75 also ranks third on the slate.
Value
Kyle Anderson saw a nice minutes spike in his last game and is projected for a similar workload vs. the Suns. He averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute last season, and his $4,100 salary makes him one of the best values of the day on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince has seen a major bump in production for the Hawks this season, posting a usage rate of 28.5% through his first four games. The result is an average of 1.24 DraftKings points per minute, and his $6,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He also has an excellent matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls, who have allowed 117.4 points per 100 possessions to start the season.
Jabari Parker posted a usage rate of 31.8% in his last game, which is not exactly surprising given the Bulls’ current injury situation. His playing time was ultimately limited to just 26 minutes in a blowout loss, but he has the potential to play more if Saturday’s game remains competitive.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis had a rough shooting night Friday, going just 6-for-19 from the field, but was able to salvage his fantasy stock by recording five blocks and four steals. His average of 1.8 DraftKings points per minute to start the season is matched only by Giannis on the slate, but Davis looks like the better value on DraftKings: His $11,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
That said, he has a difficult matchup against the Utah Jazz. The Jazz ranked second in defensive efficiency last season, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 110.75 points is significantly lower than their average to start the season (128.2).
Still, Davis has been able to find success against the Jazz in the past, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.03 on DraftKings over the past two seasons. He’ll likely check in with lower ownership than usual given the matchup, which makes him really intriguing for GPPs.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) handles the ball while Houston Rockets guard James Harden defends.
Value
Dario Saric has seen a nice boost in playing time since the start of the season, playing at least 33.5 minutes in each of his past three games. He has a strong matchup vs. the Hornets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.87, and his $5,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Fast Break
Jaren Jackson Jr. has been a monster this season, averaging 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. He’s coming off a career-high 30.5 minutes in his most recent contest, and he could see a similar workload moving forward with JaMychal Green sidelined for the foreseeable future.
LaMarcus Aldridge crushed the Lakers in their first matchup this season, scoring 37 points and racking up 61.5 FanDuel points. The Spurs are in the top pace up spot of the day, and he’s one of the few high-priced power forwards who owns a better Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in three of his first four games, yet his price has actually decreased by $900 since the start of the season. He has a difficult matchup against the Celtics — the Pistons’ implied team total of 102.0 points is the second-lowest mark on the slate — but Drummond has posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.25 against Boston over the past two seasons.
Value
Wendell Carter Jr. was the victim of a blowout in the Bulls’ last game, resulting in just 18 minutes of playing time, but he still figures to be a big part of their rotation moving forward. He played at least 29.5 minutes in each of his previous two games before the 29-point loss to Charlotte, and his $4,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
The JaVale McGee renaissance movement is in full swing! His playing time has slowly increased to start the season, culminating in 31.5 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute to begin the season, and his $5,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers center JaVale McGee.
Hassan Whiteside has reportedly entered the season in the best shape of his career, and head coach Erik Spoelstra supposedly feels more comfortable leaving him on the floor for extended stretches of playing time. He’s still priced at a discount at $7,000 on DraftKings and averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute last season.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr.
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
