The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guards
Studs
DraftKings features a pair of criminally underpriced stud point guards in John Wall and Damian Lillard. Each player owns a Bargain Rating of 99%, and each ranks in the top three among point guards in terms of Pro Trends.
Wall is priced at $8,500 in a difficult matchup against the Toronto Raptors. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of merely +1.60, but the Wizards are still implied for a respectable 109 points. Wall has also found a lot of success against the Raptors over the past two seasons, posting a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +8.47 and averaging 55.06 DraftKings points per game (per the Trends tool).
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Wizards point guard John Wall.
Lillard has a much tougher matchup on paper vs. the San Antonio Spurs, but there are reasons to believe San Antonio will take a step back defensively this season against point guards. Dejounte Murray was the best defensive point guard in the league last season per Defensive Real Plus/Minus, and he’ll miss the season after tearing his ACL. Regardless of the matchup, Lillard almost undoubtedly too cheap at $8,200: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.28 with a comparable salary.
Value
It’s hard to look past Jamal Murray at just $6,000 on FanDuel. He played 31.5 minutes on opening night against the Clippers and averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute last season. He has one of the best matchups on the board Saturday vs. the Phoenix Suns, who played at the second-fastest pace and posted the worst mark in defensive efficiency last season. Point guards in particularly crushed them from a fantasy perspective: No team allowed a higher average Plus/Minus to the position on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Ben Simmons is the highest-priced point guard on the slate but has been nothing short of fantastic through his first two games of the season. He’s averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute and now gets a juicy matchup vs. the Orlando Magic. Wall and Lillard look like better values, but Simmons has the highest upside at the position.
Three players lead the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel: Lillard, Simmons, and Spencer Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie has played at least 31 minutes in each of the Nets’ first two games this season and averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute last season. He looks like a nice value at $5,600.
D’Angelo Russell could be another option worth considering for Brooklyn. His minutes could be a little inconsistent this season — he played 25 in Game 1 and 33.5 in Game 2 — but he averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute last season. He has big upside at his current price tag across the industry.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden was a bit of a disappointment in his first game of the season vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, resulting in a Plus/Minus of -4.60 on DraftKings. That said, Saturday vs. the Lakers could be a prime opportunity for him to bounce back.
The Lakers have stated that they want to play fast this season, and they certainly did that in their first game vs. the Trail Blazers. They averaged a ridiculous 114.3 possessions per 48 minutes, which should result in a lot of possessions Saturday. The Rockets’ implied team total of 119 points is the top mark on the slate, and Harden has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.26 on DraftKings in comparable situations.
Jimmy Butler is trying to force his way out of Minnesota, but it hasn’t stopped him from playing well to start the season. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +16.40 through his first two games, yet somehow, his salary has actually decreased for Saturday’s contest vs. the Dallas Mavericks. The matchup is far from ideal — the Mavericks appear to be one of the only teams interested in playing at a slow pace in 2018 — but $7,700 is just too cheap on DraftKings given Butler’s average of 1.54 fantasy points per minute.
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Timberwolves guard Jimmy Butler.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Luka Doncic looks like an excellent target on FanDuel. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, and shooting guards with comparable marks have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.49. He struggled in his first game of the season, but his usage rate of 29.9% is encouraging. Doncic has the ability to fill up the stat sheet, so he just needs to shoot a little better from the field to return value Saturday.
Fast Break
Kris Dunn is expected to miss his second straight game for the Bulls, which puts Zach LaVine back on the fantasy radar again. He dominated in Chicago’s first game of the season, posting a usage rate of 33.6% and averaging 1.36 FanDuel points per minute. Antonio Blakeney also makes some sense for those looking to punt one of the shooting guard spots: He’s priced at just $3,600 and played 30.5 minutes in the Bulls’ opener.
Bradley Beal might be the best pure value at the position on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He disappointed in his first game of the season, posting a Plus/Minus of -5.60, but foul trouble ultimately limited him to just 27 minutes of playing time. He’s crushed over the past two seasons with a comparable salary on DraftKings, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.30, so this seems like an excellent opportunity to buy back on him.
Small Forward
Stud
Game 1 of LeBron James’ Lakers tenure was an interesting one. It was the fastest game he’s played in his entire career, and this is his 16th season in the NBA. That’s pretty incredible.
That said, the breakneck pace didn’t exactly lead to fantasy success in his first game, resulting in a Plus/Minus of -7.82 on FanDuel. He will undoubtedly post bigger games in the future, but there could still be some growing pains early in the season with his new team. LeBron is definitely in play — especially with the Rockets defense looking extremely porous in its first game — but it seems like there are better values available.
Value
Jared Dudley is about as boring as it gets from a DFS perspective, but he’s hard to ignore on this slate. He’s priced at the near minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is projected for 31.1 minutes vs. the Indiana Pacers. That should be enough playing time for him to return value in spite of his minuscule average of 0.66 fantasy points per minute.
Fast Break
Robert Covington remains priced at a discount on DraftKings at $5,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Orlando Magic, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.49, and he’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute to start the season.
Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets forward Carmelo Anthony (7) and Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley .
Carmelo Anthony may be washed at this point in his career, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s expected to play close to 30 minutes in the best game environment of the day. He still managed to average 0.85 FanDuel points per minute last season in Oklahoma City and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.53 vs. the Lakers. He’s in play at $5,100 on FanDuel.
The Raptors are looking to take it easy on Kawhi Leonard early in the season, so he won’t suit up Saturday vs. the Wizards. That could make Danny Green an intriguing value play given his average of 0.87 fantasy points per minute to start the season.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin produced a pretty typical stat line in his first game of the season, scoring 26 points with eight rebounds and six assists. He’s in another excellent spot vs. the Chicago Bulls, who were an absolute dumpster fire defensively in their season opener vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61 on FanDuel, where Griffin’s $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. His 12 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position.
Value
Bobby Portis might be the strongest play of the day on FanDuel. He was a monster in his first game of the season, posting a Plus/Minus of +17.47, and he should continue to see a healthy amount of playing time with Lauri Markkanen sidelined. He averaged an outstanding 1.13 fantasy points per minute last season, which makes him way too cheap at just $5,900.
Fast Break
Kevin Knox will likely go through the typically rookie struggles, and his playing time will vary on a night-to-night basis. That said, it’s hard to find a player with a comparable usage projection priced as low as he is at the moment. He’s taken 30 shots through the Knicks’ first two games, and head coach David Fizdale has stated that he’ll give him a few extra minutes if his shot is falling.
Gordon Hayward will miss Saturday’s contest for the Celtics, which could be a positive for Jayson Tatum. The transition to power forward has already been beneficial for his fantasy stock — he’s pulled down nine rebounds in each of his first two games — and he could see a few additional minutes and shot attempts against the Knicks. His $6,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic was solid in his first game of the season, scoring 21 points with eight rebounds and five assists, and he’ll get a much more positive matchup Saturday vs. the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix was crushed by opposing centers last season, giving Jokic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.21 on FanDuel, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 117 points is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Wendell Carter Jr. struggled in his first NBA start, but he was going to struggle against one of the best centers in the league in Joel Embiid. He has another difficult matchup Saturday vs. Andre Drummond, although he Drummond isn’t nearly the same offensive weapon in the post. Carter should be able to stay on the floor for more than 20 minutes in this contest, which makes him an appealing target at just $4,000 on DraftKings. Despite the brutal matchup, he still managed to average 0.89 DraftKings points per minute on opening night.
Fast Break
DraftKings features a pair of stud centers with a Bargain Rating of at least 98%. Karl-Anthony Towns has really struggled to start the season, posting an average usage rate of 18.5%, but he’s way too talented to keep down forever. Hassan Whiteside might be the more appealing option given his matchup vs. the Charlotte Hornets. They figure to be one of the worst teams in the league vs. opposing centers this season after losing Dwight Howard, and Whiteside averaged 1.33 fantasy points per minute last season. He looks like a really nice value at $6,700.
Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Heat center Hassan Whiteside.
DeAndre Ayton was as good as advertised in his first career game, scoring 45.0 FanDuel points in 36.5 minutes. He looks like an awesome value across the industry against the Nuggets, but there’s a good chance that he’ll miss the game after rolling his ankle in practice Friday. If he can’t go, Richaun Holmes would be an interesting value play. He averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute last season and is priced near the minimum across the industry.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Damian Lillard
Photo credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
