The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Kemba Walker has been fantastic to start the season, posting a perfect 100% Consistency Rating on FanDuel. He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Cavaliers, who have been a train-wreck defensively. They currently rank dead last in terms of defensive efficiency, and the Hornets’ implied team total of 115.5 is one of the higher marks on the slate. They’ve struggled against point guards in particular, giving Walker an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.54 on FanDuel.
Damian Lillard has struggled recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past three games, but today’s matchup vs. the Lakers looks like an excellent spot to buy low.
Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0).
He’s priced at $9,700 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 86%, and the Lakers have been one of the best teams to target in daily fantasy basketball. They’re currently playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the league and rank in the bottom 10 in terms of defensive efficiency, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 119.5 is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin.
Value
Goran Dragic will miss today’s contest for the Miami Heat, which should result in a few additional minutes for Tyler Johnson. He’s seen one of the largest boosts in production with Dragic off the floor this season, averaging 0.80 DraftKings points per minute. He’s very affordable at $4,100 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.25 against the Atlanta Hawks. He looks like a nice value option.
Fast Break
The gap between Lonzo Ball and Rajon Rondo appears to be widening. Ball played a season-high 33 minutes in his last game and has the potential to rack up fantasy points despite a relatively low usage rate. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute through his first eight games, and his $5,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Jaylen Brown is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s contest vs. the Indiana Pacers, but said he “plans to play”. If he is inactive, however, Kyrie Irving would become an interesting target. He put up 49.1 FanDuel points with Brown out of the lineup in his last game and is priced at a discount compared to the other top point guard targets on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is expected to return to the lineup after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury. Rockets’ beat reporter Jonathan Feigen doesn’t expect him to be limited in any capacity, which could make him an interesting target vs. the Chicago Bulls. They’ve been poor defensively, ranking just 27th in terms of defensive efficiency, and Harden may have lower ownership than usual in his first game back.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13).
Harden hasn’t exactly crushed this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.10 on DraftKings, but remains one of the most involved offensive players in the league: He currently ranks fourth in usage rate and third in assist rate. If the Rockets’ offense improves after a slow start, he should be in line for another monster season.
Value
Dwyane Wade is another member of the Heat who should see a few additional minutes with Dragic out of the lineup. He’s been excellent on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 0.92 FanDuel points per minute, and owns and Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.69 vs. the Atlanta Hawks. He’s a particularly good value on FanDuel, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
CJ McCollum has seen a price decrease of $700 since the start of the season on DraftKings and is currently priced at just $6,400 for today’s matchup vs. the Lakers. McCollum has historically been an excellent value with a comparable price tag, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.83 (per the Trends tool). He could be an intriguing buy-low option.
Victor Oladipo seems way underpriced at just $7,700 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Oladipo posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.12 with a comparable salary last season. That said, he does have a difficult matchup vs. the Celtics, who rank first in the league in defensive efficiency.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has had an excellent start to his Lakers career from a fantasy perspective, averaging 1.55 DraftKings points per minute. He leads all small forwards with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, which should be one of the best games of the day for fantasy purposes: The 236-point total is 7.5 points higher than the second-highest total on the slate.
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23).
The Blazers have also struggled against opposing small forwards this season, giving LeBron an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.34. It’s basically never a bad idea to pay up for LeBron in cash games if you can: He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 83% over the past year and 100% to start the new season.
Value
There’s a chance that Justise Winslow could be the player who supplants Dragic in the starting lineup. He’s served as the team’s nominal backup point guard since returning from injury and has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute. Regardless, he should see a few additional minutes on today’s slate, which makes him an excellent target at $4,500 on DraftKings and $4,700 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Don’t forget about Josh Richardson for the Heat, who has actually led the team in usage. He’s also seen a usage bump of +1.8% with Dragic off the court and has averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute. He’s currently projected for 35.1 minutes in our NBA Models and is particularly appealing at $7,300 on FanDuel.
Justin Holiday has been an excellent source of value recently, scoring at least 27.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He could be a bit overlooked today given all the value options for the Heat, but he has a Bargain Rating of 98% on DraftKings in an excellent matchup vs. the Houston Rockets.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is currently listed as questionable after missing three of the past four games with an elbow injury. He warmed up prior to Thursday’s contest, which seems like a good sign, but was ultimately non-committal when asked about his status following today’s shoot around.
That said, he’s not exactly in a great spot if he does suit up. The Spurs have been his personal kryptonite over the past two seasons, limiting him to an average Plus/Minus of -8.30 and a Consistency Rating of 37.5%. They haven’t exactly been the same defensive team this season, but they have risen to 17th in defensive efficiency after ranking dead last just last week; It wouldn’t be shocking to see them in the top 10 soon given their previous history.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23).
They also employ the same big men who have limited Davis in the past, and they’ve still been tough on opposing big men this season despite their overall defensive slippage. He’s always in play for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) — especially considering his projected ownership of just 13-16% on DraftKings — but he seems risky for cash games.
Value
Al-Farouq Aminu is coming off a 32.0 FanDuel point performance in his last contest, but is still priced at a value at $5,000 on FanDuel. His current salary represents a $600 decrease since the start of the season and gives him a Bargain Rating of 81%. He’s a cheap way to get exposure to the best game of the night.
Fast Break
The addition of DeMar DeRozan has clearly hurt LaMarcus Aldridge from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five of his first seven games, but this could be an intriguing time to buy low on him. He’s priced at just $8,100 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 86%, and the Pelicans have played at the third-fastest pace this season. He has upside.
Jabari Parker is one of the better values at the position on DraftKings, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. His transition to the starting lineup has yet to help him from a fantasy perspective — he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -8.72 over his past two games — but he has played at least 29.5 minutes in both of those contests. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute and has a nice matchup vs. the Rockets on today’s slate.
Center
Stud
I never thought I’d live in a world where JaVale McGee was considered a stud center, but that’s exactly where we are in 2018. McGee has been dominant for the Lakers, averaging a Plus/Minus of +11.48 through his first eight games on FanDuel, thanks to an average of 1.38 FanDuel points per minute.
He’s played at least 31 minutes in three of his past four games and has a nice individual matchup vs. the Blazers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.41. He’s a steal on DraftKings at $6,400, but he’s worth considering at $7,600 on FanDuel as well.
Value
Wendell Carter Jr. might be the best overall play of the day at just $5,000 on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 31.0 DraftKings points in four straight games — despite seeing as few as 22 minutes — and has an elite matchup today vs. the Rockets. Opposing centers have crushed the Rockets this season, giving Carter Jr. an Opponent Plus/Minus of +10.60. He’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models and could smash if he sees that much playing time.
Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bulls forward Wendell Carter Jr. (34).
Fast Break
Rounding out our tour of the Miami Heat is Hassan Whiteside, who has been excellent to start the season. He’s back to controlling the paint on the defensive end of the court, averaging four blocks per game over his past four contests. He’s also seen a usage bump of 2.5% on the offensive end with Dragic off the court, so he has nice upside at $8,000 on DraftKings.
Jusuf Nurkic has one of the widest ranges of playing time in the entire league, but today’s matchup vs. the Lakers seems like a good one for him. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute and could see close to 30 minutes to combat the size of McGee.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Dwyane Wade
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
