The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook headlines the point guard position and is coming off 61 fantasy points in yesterday’s contest vs. the Charlotte Hornets. He increased his average to 1.65 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. He remains priced at a discount on DraftKings, where his $10,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
That said, he has a much tougher matchup today vs. the Denver Nuggets. They currently rank just 25th in pace and seventh in defensive efficiency, giving Westbrook an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.07.
John Wall looks like a strong option today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. They currently rank third in the league in pace, giving this contest a massive total of 239 points. The Wizards are also just one-point favorites, which makes this game especially appealing for daily fantasy purposes.
Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2).
Wall looks like a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.38 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool), so it’s hard not to like him given the projected game environment.
Value
Quinn Cook has provided solid fantasy value while filling in for Steph Curry recently, averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute. He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Sacramento Kings, who are playing at the fastest pace in the league. He remains affordable across the industry.
Fast Break
Eric Bledsoe doesn’t play as many minutes as a typical starting PG – he’s currently projected for 29.5 in our NBA Models – but he makes the most out of what he’s given. He’s averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute this season, which has led to an average Plus/Minus of +5.67 over his past eight games on FanDuel. He has a decent matchup today vs. the Spurs, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.23.
Antonio Blakeney could be an interesting punt option on DraftKings at just $3,200. He’s a high usage type of player, resulting in an average of 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and is currently projected for 25 minutes vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. He could help you fit in some of the stud options on today’s slate.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Chris Paul will get the night off for the Houston Rockets, which puts James Harden squarely on the DFS radar. Harden has dominated with Paul off the floor this season, owning a ridiculous usage rate of 40.8% and averaging 1.64 DraftKings points per minute.
He has a great matchup tonight vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season and are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Rockets’ offense hasn’t been nearly as lethal as they were last season, but they’ve been great recently, posting an average of 122.4 points per 100 possessions over their past six games.
Unfortunately, the Rockets are also on the second leg of a back-to-back, and unlike Cleveland, they are away from home. Harden has historically struggled in those situations, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.14 over the past three seasons. It’s impossible to ignore Harden with Paul out of the lineup – especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90% — but this spot may not be as juicy as it appears on the surface.
Paul might not be the only superstar who sits out on today’s slate. Anthony Davis is currently questionable with a hip injury, and his absence would give Jrue Holiday a nice bump in value. He’s been dominant even with Davis in the lineup recently, posting a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month and averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.93 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He also leads all players at the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday (11).
Value
It’s a tough day to pay down at the SG position, but one player who could be worth some consideration on FanDuel is Malcolm Brogdon. He has a difficult matchup on paper vs. the San Antonio Spurs, but the total on this game has risen by six points since opening.
The Bucks play at one of the fastest paces in the league, and the Spurs defense isn’t nearly as imposing as it’s been in the past. They should still be able to score points in this contest, evidenced by an implied team total of 118.25 points. Brogdon has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.68 over his past 10 games on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The Warriors’ offense was finally able to get going without Curry. They scored 125 points yesterday against a solid Trail Blazers’ defense, thanks in part to 31 points from Klay Thompson. He’s seen a massive usage bump with Curry off the floor this season, so he could be looking at another big game today vs. the Kings.
Zach LaVine gets to face his old team today, and he’s projected for a position-high 38 minutes. He’s cooled off after a torrid start to the season, but this could be a good time to buy low on him on DraftKings: His $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Small Forward
Studs
DFS players will have to choose between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant at the top on today’s slate.
Let’s start with Giannis. He was extremely efficient yesterday vs. the Suns, scoring 35 points on 14-16 shooting, but still failed to return value due to an unusual lack of peripheral stats. He still offers one of the highest ceilings in daily fantasy basketball, but today’s matchup vs. the Spurs is far from ideal.
For starters, this is a back-to-back for Milwaukee, and Giannis has been a disaster in his first two back-to-backs of the year. He’s averaged just 40.5 DraftKings points per game, good for an average Plus/Minus of -17.08.
He’s also struggled to find success vs. the Spurs over the past three seasons, posting an average Plus/Minus of -9.77 and a Consistency Rating of just 33.3%. This is obviously not the same Spurs team — especially considering that Kawhi Leonard likely spent a lot of time on Giannis when these teams met in the past — but we’ve seen plenty of superstars struggle with the Spurs in the past. Giannis is still worth some consideration on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%, but he’s best suited for GPPs.
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Durant has the clear edge if you’re paying up at the position. He’s been a usage hog with Curry out of the lineup, posting an average usage rate of 36.4%, and is in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Sacramento Kings. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $10,800 salary makes him $1,500 cheaper than Giannis. There’s really no need to overthink this one.
Value
Kelly Oubre could be a cheap way to get some exposure to the Wizards. He’s started each of the past two games and has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute on the season. That hasn’t necessarily translated into more playing time yet – he played approximately 25 minutes yesterday vs. the Raptors – but he could see a few additional minutes if Dwight Howard were to miss today’s contest. Either way, he doesn’t need to play a ton to potentially pay off his $4,400 salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay has been a big part of the Spurs’ rotation this season and has averaged an elite 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He appears to be a nice value at $6,100 on FanDuel, but he could potentially rest on the second leg of a back-to-back. You’ll want to monitor his status prior to tipoff.
Jabari Parker is playing all the minutes he can handle for the Chicago Bulls at the moment. He’s played at least 39 in each of his past two games and has scored at least 41.0 DraftKings points in both of those contests. He could see a similar workload today vs. the Timberwolves, who rank just 25th in defensive efficiency.
Power Forward
Stud
Davis was able to score 55.5 DraftKings points in just 32 minutes with the Pelicans vs. the Knicks despite leaving the game briefly with an injury. Injuries are always a concern with Davis, especially since the Wizards are on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back. Even if he is active, Davis has typically struggled in these situations, averaging a Plus/Minus of -4.96 on DraftKings when playing on consecutive nights away from home.
He’s tempting given the matchup vs. the Wizards, who have been a mess defensively and could be without Howard, but there’s definitely some additional risk with Davis on today’s slate. That said, he might be too cheap to pass up on DraftKings, where his $11,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Markieff Morris would be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Howard were to miss today’s contest. He’s seen a usage bump of +1.1% with Howard off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.93 FanDuel points per minute, and played just under 29 minutes in yesterday’s contest. He’s a nice option at just $4,200 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Marvin Bagley is starting to carve out a bigger role in Sacramento and has played at least 26 minutes in each of his past three games. He’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute on the season, so it’s not surprising that he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those games given the bump in playing time. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings forward Marvin Bagley III (35).
PJ Tucker offers very little in terms of upside but should see a ton of minutes today with Paul out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 38.5 minutes in our NBA Models at just $4,300 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.85.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled in each of his past two games, but this could be a nice time to buy low on him. Foul trouble has limited him to just 28 minutes in each of those contests, but his usage rate and per-minute productivity has remained excellent. If he can return to his normal workload today, he has a chance to smash vs. the Bulls given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.41. He’s also one of the better pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Tristan Thompson has been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.87 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s averaged a strong 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and played over 35 minutes in his last game, and that combination of playing time and productivity would make him a nice value at $5,500.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic could be one of the most interesting GPP options of the day. Gary Harris is currently questionable, and his absence should definitely benefit Jokic: He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.88 DraftKings points per minute with both Harris and Will Barton off the floor this season. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Thunder but has averaged 67.4 DraftKings points in his past two meetings vs. OKC.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: James Harden
Photo credit: Marcio Jose Sanchez- USA Today Sports
