The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate differs by site: DraftKings offers an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET, while FanDuel offers a seven-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
The 76ers just moved all their chips into the middle of the table, acquiring Jimmy Butler for Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Jerryd Bayless and a second-round pick. That trade could obviously play big dividends in the long term, but it’s going to leave them pretty shorthanded on today’s slate. That could make Ben Simmons an intriguing target. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games and saw a usage bump of +1.8% with Covington and Saric off the floor last season.
John Wall looks like one of the better values on the day on DraftKings, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s in an excellent spot vs. the Miami Heat, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +11.27. He’s scored at least 48.5 DraftKings points in three straight games and has a good shot to make it four in a row today.
Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2).
Value
Collin Sexton drew the start for the Cavaliers in their last game and tallied just under 42 minutes of playing time. It’s hard to ignore someone with that much playing time upside at just $4,400 on FanDuel, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 95%. The Cavs are also in a nice spot today vs. the Chicago Bulls, who rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Dennis Smith Jr. has been a disappointment in his sophomore campaign, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.93 on FanDuel. That said, he’s seen a massive salary decrease across the industry since the start of the season, which could make him an interesting buy-low candidate. He’s still averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute and is projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models.
D’Angelo Russell is playing reduced minutes this season, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games. He’s averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute and is priced at just $5,800, and players with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.06 when projected for 26-32 minutes (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
There have been a lot of surprises to start the season, but the demise of the Houston Rockets has been one of the biggest. They were expected to regress a bit defensively after losing Trevor Ariza in the offseason, but no one could’ve seen them dropping to just 27th in offensive efficiency.
That said, they have dealt with their fair share of injuries and suspensions — Chris Paul, James Harden, and Eric Gordon have played just two games together — and there’s still plenty of time left for them to figure it out.
From a fantasy perspective, the Rockets’ struggles have greatly affected Harden’s fantasy stock. He’s still among the league leaders in usage and assist rate, but he’s averaging nearly four fewer points and one fewer assist per game than he did last season. The result is an average Plus/Minus of -4.29 through his first seven games.
Still, its hard not to like him on DraftKings, where his $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. His salary has decreased by a whopping $1,900 since the beginning of the season, and Harden has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.47 with a comparable salary. The Rockets will also be without Carmelo Anthony on today’s slate, and his absence can be considered nothing less than addition by subtraction:
Through 10 games, Carmelo Anthony has more missed shots (72) than field goals, assists, steals, and blocks combined (65).
Rockets are 15.4 points per 100 possessions better with him off the court.
— Justin Phan (@jphanned) November 9, 2018
His recent play could also result in slightly lower ownership than usual: He’s projected for just 13-16% ownership on DraftKings.
Value
Markelle Fultz and JJ Redick both figure to be big winners in the Butler trade. Fultz will almost certainly play more minutes moving forward, while Redick will likely rejoin the starting lineup. Both players are worthy of some consideration today.
Fast Break
The Suns have one of the best matchups of the day vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who have played at the third-fastest pace and rank just 24th in defensive efficiency this season. Devin Booker is coming off his best game of the year, scoring 58.1 FanDuel points in over 42.5 minutes of playing time, but remains priced at a slight discount on FanDuel at $8,400.
Zach LaVine has been awesome for the Bulls this season, averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. No one at the position is projected for more than his 38 minutes, and he’s in an elite spot vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and his price tag on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Small Forward
Studs
Today’s game between the Lakers and Kings should feature lots of points. Both teams rank in the top four in pace, and neither team has been particularly impressive on the defensive end either. The Lakers in particular are implied for 122.75 points, which is the top mark on the slate.
That could mean big things for LeBron James, who owns a 100% Consistency Rating in games where his team is implied for at least 122 points. His 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, where his $10,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Steph Curry is expected to miss some time after injuring his groin Thursday vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. That should result in a larger role for Kevin Durant, who is shooting an unreal 55.3% from the field through his first 12 games.
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35).
He’s seen a usage bump of +9.9% with Curry off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.51 DraftKings points per minute, and he averaged 49.26 DraftKings points per game with Curry out of the lineup last season. He’s a slightly better value today on FanDuel but does own an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.84 vs. the Brooklyn Nets.
Value
Kyle Anderson has slowly started to pick up his production with the Grizzlies, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +5.55 in each of his last two games. He’s started to play more consistent minutes as well, seeing at least 29 in three of his past four contests. He remains affordable at just $4,200 on DraftKings and owns an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.87 vs. the 76ers.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson struggled with foul trouble yesterday vs. the Pacers but still figures to be a massive part of the Heat offense if Goran Dragic is out of the lineup. He’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.02 vs. the Wizards.
The Wizards lost again yesterday, bringing their season record to just 2-9. It’s starting to feel like they might just have to blow up this whole situation and start over, but for the time being, Otto Porter seems underpriced on DraftKings. His $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, but he’s far from a safe option: His minutes have fluctuated wildly this season.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis dominated in his most recent game, but it’s never easy with him. He left the game briefly after colliding with Julius Randle and took a hard fall after trying to block a shot on the defensive end. He’s also still dealing with an elbow injury, although that didn’t stop him from making 13 of 24 shots from the field.
He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns, who have been the fourth-worst team in terms of defensive efficiency. The Pelicans’ implied team total of 119.25 ranks second on the slate, and Davis averaged 64.83 DraftKings points in three matchups vs. the Suns last season. It’s possible that he could fly a bit under the radar on today’s slate if people choose to focus on the shorthanded 76ers or Warriors, but no one on the slate can match his upside.
The Spurs are another team that will be missing a few players today, particularly in their frontcourt. Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol, and Jakob Poeltl have all been ruled out, which could result in a big workload for LaMarcus Aldridge.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12).
He’s in a good spot as well, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.20 vs. the Houston Rockets. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, and he leads all players at the position with 11 Pro Trends.
Value
The 76ers may have no choice but to play Jonah Bolden for big minutes on today’s slate. He’s been productive in limited playing time this season, averaging 0.85 DraftKings points per minute, and is currently projected for 27.0 minutes in our NBA Models.
He’s priced at the absolute minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries, minute projections, and per-minute fantasy outputs have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.17 on DraftKings. He’s basically a must-play in cash games and will allow you to get your preferred stud into your lineup.
Fast Break
Larry Nance Jr. has seen his salary come back to reality on DraftKings, which makes him an intriguing option vs. the Bulls. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.41.
This year’s rookie class has been exceptionally strong, which is why Jaren Jackson Jr. has flown a bit under the radar so far. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute and has scored at least 34.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s very reasonably priced at just $5,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and has an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.20 vs. the 76ers.
Center
Studs
Joel Embiid has been a force this season, and its possible he could see a larger workload than normal in today’s contest. He’s seen a slight usage bump with Saric and Covington off the court this season and commanded a usage rate of over 38% with both players off the floor last season. He does have a difficult matchup vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, but no one at the position has averaged more fantasy points per minute that him.
Hassan Whiteside is back. Head coach Erik Spolestra trusts him again, and he’s back to being one of the most ferocious rim protectors in the league. He’s averaged a league-leading 3.5 blocks per game and has pulled down 20 rebounds in back-to-back games. He’s still priced at a discount on DraftKings at $8,200, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Heat center Hassan Whiteside (21).
Value
Tyson Chandler played 23 minutes in his Lakers debut and averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute. He could see a similar workload today in a plus-matchup vs. the Kings, and he’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. Pairing him with Bolden leaves you an average of over $7,300 for your remaining roster spots, which makes it feasible to roster two superstars.
Fast Break
If Marc Gasol can stay out of foul trouble against Embiid, he’s in an excellent spot today. The 76ers have been roster by opposing centers this season, giving Gasol an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.89 on DraftKings. His 11 Pro Trends are tied with Embiid for the most at the position, and his $7,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Willie Cauley-Stein has struggled with foul trouble recently, but his role in the Kings’ rotation is otherwise pretty entrenched. He’s averaged 1.16 FanDuel points per minute and is projected for 32.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and that combination would make him a nice value at $7,200.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Ben Simmons
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
