NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Sat. 3/2): Nikola Jokic in Smash Spot

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Russell Westbrook continues to dominate from a fantasy perspective, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.89 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s also posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month and has increased his fantasy production to 1.79 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame.

He’s in a great spot today vs. the San Antonio Spurs, who have struggled defensively against point guards this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.81 on DraftKings, and Westbrook ranks third at the position with 13 Pro Trends.

He should also continue to benefit from the absence of Paul George, who will miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury. Westbrook has seen a usage bump of +5.8% in two games without George this season and has played an average of 38.3 minutes per game. He’s an elite option across the industry in all formats.

Value

Rajon Rondo is one of the easiest plays of the day. He’s started each of the past two games for the Lakers and has responded with 46.1 and 47.1 FanDuel points in those contests. He’s in a great spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 120.5 ranks third on the slate. Rondo is simply too cheap across the industry.

Fast Break

Eric Bledsoe has gone off in his past two games, scoring at least 51.3 FanDuel points in both contests, and he has the potential to be a focal point of the Bucks’ offense today. Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as questionable and Malcolm Brogdon is listed as doubtful, and Bledsoe has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute with both players off the court this season. He’d be a tough fade if both players are ultimately ruled out.

Derrick White is one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s averaged a stout 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and should benefit from a pace up matchup vs. the Thunder.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Jimmy Butler isn’t priced like a true stud at just $7,300 on DraftKings, but he’s been providing stud-like value with Joel Embiid out of the lineup. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, including scoring 44.5 DraftKings points in his last game. He’s in an appealing spot vs. the Warriors as well given the slate-high over/under of 238.0 points.

Value

Mikal Bridges has been one of the most consistent producers in DFS over the past two months. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 13 of his past 15 games and has scored at least 20.5 DraftKings points in each of his past three contests. That said, his price tag has still dropped to just $3,800 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Lakers. It results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and the Suns’ implied team total of 114.0 represents a sizable increase when compared to their season average (106.3).

Fast Break

Dennis Schroder was a slight disappointment in his last game, scoring just 25.7 FanDuel points with George out of the lineup, but he still did enough to return value on his salary. He also had the potential for a much better game but struggled to just 4-15 shooting from the field. He’s underpriced on FanDuel for today’s contest vs. the Spurs, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 82%.

Jrue Holiday is priced at just $7,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends and has averaged a stout 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He also won’t have to worry about the Anthony Davis distraction on today’s slate since he’s already been ruled out for “rest”.

Small Forward

Stud

LeBron James continues to produce at an elite level for the Los Angeles Lakers. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.82 over his past 10 games and has scored at least 55.25 DraftKings points in each of his past six contests. He also remains fairly priced on DraftKings at $11,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s an interesting pivot away from Westbrook in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), who will almost certainly command higher ownership.

Value

If you want to jam two studs into the same lineup on DraftKings, Pat Connaughton could be a key value play. He’s been a nice value over his past three games, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +11.52 in each contest, and would benefit from the absences of either Brogdon or Antetokounmpo.

He’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute and is currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him one of the best values of the day at just $3,100.

Fast Break

Joe Ingles is another player who has provided awesome value recently. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.16 in each of his past four games, and his salary remains reasonable at just $5,400 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95%.

The Warriors are going to be without Klay Thompson today vs. the 76ers, which makes Kevin Durant an interesting tournament option on FanDuel. He’s seen a usage bump of +5.5% with Thompson off the court since DeMarcus Cousins returned from injury on January 18th, giving him significant upside at $9,500.

Power Forward

Stud

Julius Randle has a tough matchup today vs. the Denver Nuggets but figures to benefit from the absence of Davis. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.3% with Davis and Nikola Mirotic off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.26 DraftKings points per minute.

He’s been excellent in three games with both players out of the lineup, averaging 43.67 DraftKings points per game. Randle is a particularly nice option at $8,000 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.

Value

Jerami Grant is another member of the Thunder who should benefit from the absence of George. He’s averaged 37.4 minutes per game in two games without George this season, resulting in an average of 32.88 DraftKings points per game. The result is an average Plus/Minus of +11.0 in those contests, and his $5,100 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Fast Break

Tobias Harris has been awesome for the Clippers with Embiid out of the lineup, averaging 43.19 DraftKings points per game. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%.

Dirk Nowitzki is another potential source of value on a slate loaded with superstars. He’s played at least 22 minutes in each of his past three games and has posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.47 in all of them. He’s priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic is in an absolute dream spot today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. They’ve been a disaster defensively with Davis off the court this season, and the Nuggets resulting implied team total of 125.25 is one of the highest marks we’ve seen all season.

Jokic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.34 on DraftKings, where his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. He’s also one of the better values among the stud players on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.

Value

On the other side of the same matchup, Jahlil Okafor could be a useful source of value. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and is projected for 22.5 minutes on today’s slate. He’s averaged 30.89 DraftKings points in eight games without Davis and Mirotic this season.

Fast Break

DeMarcus Cousins is one of the better values at the position on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%. He’s averaged 1.42 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.

Pictured: Nuggets C Nikola Jokic
Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports.