The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
It might be time to lower our expectations for Russell Westbrook. He’s still having an excellent season, averaging just 0.1 assists shy of a triple-double, but he’s not putting up the same eye-popping volume that we’ve become accustomed to.
His current usage rate of 31.0% ranks “just” 10th in the league and would be his lowest mark since his second season as a pro. His current assist rate of 46.7% would also be his lowest mark since 2013-14.
Add it all up, and Westbrook has posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.47 on FanDuel through his first 19 games.
That said, his salary has decreased by a whopping $1,300 since the start of the year on FanDuel, and his current $11,200 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. He’s in a decent spot today vs. the Clippers, who have played at the ninth-fastest pace in the league, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 114.75 is the top mark on the slate. Westbrook also leads all players at the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Value
The Clippers have been blown out in each of their past two games, but their fantasy arrow is still pointing up. They’ll be without Lou Williams for the third straight game, and his absence should result in a boost in value for most of their players.
Two of the primary beneficiaries figure to be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Patrick Beverley. SGA is currently projected for 32.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That combination of playing time and productivity would make him a nice value across the industry.
Beverley probably wont see as much playing time, but he’s dirt cheap at just $3,600 on DraftKings. He did see approximately 34 minutes in the Clippers’ last competitive game, so he has upside at his minimal salary.
Fast Break
Derrick White has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.18 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and his current $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s in a decent spot vs. the Chicago Bulls, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.19.
Kris Dunn is in an interesting spot today vs. the Spurs. He will likely still be limited as he makes his way back from a knee injury, but he has the potential to carry a large offensive load with Zach LaVine sidelined.
He’s posted a usage rate of 31.6% with LaVine off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.98 DraftKings points per minute. Dunn also owns the top Opponent Plus/Minus at the PG position, which makes him a nice target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is coming off a 50-point triple-double in his last game, which has become something of a specialty for him. He’s had four such games over the past three seasons, and no one else in the history of basketball has done it more than three times in their entire career.
Harden’s usage rate of 37.4% is the top mark in the league by a considerable margin, while his assist rate of 42.5% ranks third. Essentially, no one in the league has the ball in their hands as much as Harden, which is obviously super valuable from a fantasy perspective.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to trust Harden today vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. They currently rank fourth in defensive efficiency and are the only team playing at a slower pace than the Rockets this season. Points should be at a premium in this contest, which is reflected by an over/under of just 200.5 points.
Harden also struggled in four meetings vs. the Grizzlies last season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -7.55 and a Consistency Rating of just 25% on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Value
Trevor Ariza was traded, then he wasn’t, and now he’s traded again. Say what you want about the Suns, but they’re never boring. His departure opens up a lot of playing time, which should benefit Mikal Bridges.
Bridges hasn’t exactly crushed when he’s been on the court recently, averaging just 0.62 DraftKings points per minute, but its hard to ignore someone at just $3,700 with the potential to play 30+ minutes.
Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.94 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Avery Bradley is another member of the Clippers who should see a larger role with Williams out of the lineup. He’s coming off a game in which he scored 24.25 DraftKings points in 28.5 minutes, and he remains affordable across the industry.
The Hornets are in an interesting spot today. They’re on the second-leg of a back-to-back and are coming off overtime yesterday vs. the Knicks. Teams in that situation have covered the spread at just 44.5% since 2002 (per Killersports.com).
They could very well be a team to fade today, but they do have an appealing matchup vs. the Lakers. Jeremy Lamb in particular looks like a nice value at just $5,300 on DraftKings: He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has played at least 35 minutes in each of his past two games.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James headlines the SF position today and appears to be a nice value on DraftKings, where his $10,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
He’s in a nice spot vs. the aforementioned Hornets, with the Lakers’ implied team total of 114.0 ranking second on the slate. James has been a bit of a disappointment over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.04 on DraftKings, but he has scored at least 61.75 DraftKings points in three of his past five games.
His salary has also decreased by $500 over the past month, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Brandon Ingram: LeBron has seen a 1.9% usage bump with Ingram off the floor this season, resulting in 1.51 DraftKings points per minute.
This could be a nice time to buy somewhat low on the King.
Value
Nicolas Batum has seen a major price decrease over the past month on FanDuel and is coming off 38.7 FanDuel points in yesterday’s contest. He remains affordable at just $4,800 and owns the top Opponent Plus/Minus at the SF position on today’s slate.
Fast Break
T.J. Warren looks underpriced on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. He will likely see a decrease in usage with Devin Booker expected to return to the lineup, but he should still see a healthy amount of playing time with Ariza no longer in the rotation.
Paul George leads the position in Pro Trends on both FanDuel and DraftKings but never seems to garner the same amount of attention as the top SF options. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.33 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Power Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris is coming off two disastrous games in a row, which makes this a prime time to buy low on him. His price has decreased to $7,000 on DraftKings, which is as low as it’s been all season.
He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s seen a usage bump of +1.6% with Williams off the floor this season. The Thunder have been very tough defensively – they currently rank first in defensive efficiency – but Harris still owns a respectable Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.27.
Value
The Timberwolves will be without Taj Gibson today, which makes Dario Saric extremely appealing in a juicy matchup vs. the Phoenix Suns.
Saric has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but his overall numbers have been kept down by reduced minutes as a member of the Timberwolves.
That shouldn’t be a problem on today’s slate: He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models. He will likely be extremely chalky – he’s projected for greater than 41% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel – but he’s too good of a value to pass up.
Fast Break
Bobby Portis is back in the lineup for the Bulls, albeit in reduced minutes. Still, Portis is capable of putting up big numbers in a short amount of time given his average of 1.08 FanDuel points per minute on the season. He has upside at just $5,300 on FanDuel.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been dreadful over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.04 on FanDuel. That includes failing to return value in each of his past four games. But that could result in lower ownership than usual in an elite spot vs. the Bulls.
Aldridge owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.64 on FanDuel, which is the top mark at the position by a significant margin.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns was expected to see a massive boost in production after the departure of Jimmy Butler, but he’s been inconsistent (61% Consistency Rating over the past 13 games), sprinkling in some big performances during that time frame.
He could definitely be in for a game today vs. the Suns, who have struggled vs. opposing centers all season. Towns owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.06 on FanDuel, and Deandre Ayton ranks just 53rd out of 61 qualifiers in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) as a rookie.
Towns has also seen a price decrease of $700 over the past month, which makes him an appealing option on today’s slate.
Value
The Lakers’ center spot could be a nice source of value on today’s slate. JaVale McGee is currently questionable after missing shootaround with the flu, and his absence would likely result in a decent workload for Tyson Chandler. He’s dirt-cheap across the industry.
If McGee is able to suit up, he could be an interesting target on DraftKings. His production has dropped off after a torrid start to the season, but he’s still averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
McGee’s $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond is in an interesting spot today vs. the Boston Celtics. He’s historically crushed the Celtics, averaging 48.75 DraftKings points over the past two seasons, but he did struggle against them in their first meeting this season.
That said, the Celtics will still be without Al Horford, and Drummond’s $8,500 on DraftKings does come with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Steven Adams has been balling recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven games, including a massive 53.5-point performance on DraftKings in his most recent contest.
He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.45.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Pictured Above: Tobias Harris
Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
