The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a four-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Stephen Curry stands out in his own tier at the PG position today: He’s the only PG with a salary above $7,200 on FanDuel and $6,700 on DraftKings. He has an excellent matchup today against the Denver Nuggets, who allowed the fifth-highest Plus/Minus to opposing PGs last season on FanDuel:
He’ll likely draw the defense of Jamal Murray, who ranked 62nd out of 79 qualifiers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) at the PG position last season. The Warriors also lead the slate with an implied team total of 118 points – which isn’t surprising – but it does stand out on a slate that otherwise is lackluster: Only three teams have an implied team total greater than 103.25 points.
Values
George Hill has been ruled out for tonight’s contest against the Pistons, which should open the door for De’Aaron Fox to move into the starting lineup. Fox is averaging 0.97 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings, so a few additional minutes in this game could lead to big dividends at his current $5,200 salary. His individual matchup against Reggie Jackson should be a good one: He was the fifth-worst defensive PG by DRPM last season.
The Timberwolves have yet to take a step forward defensively in Tom Thibodeau’s second season with the team, as they currently rank 29th in defensive efficiency. Dennis Smith Jr. is playing only about 30 minutes per game, but he is leading the Mavericks with a usage rate of 28.2 percent. He has a season-low salary of $5,100 on DraftKings with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Kris Dunn disappointed yesterday, scoring just 16 fantasy points in 24 minutes, but he continues to use a high portion of the Bulls possessions when he’s on the court: He’s had a usage rate of at least 24.8 percent in all three of his games this season. At just $4,900 on DraftKings, he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Reggie Jackson has one of the best matchups of the day against the Sacramento Kings, who have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.05 to PGs on FanDuel this season. He has a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating through his first nine games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Klay Thompson leads all SGs in salary on FanDuel and is coming off a game in which he scored 35.6 fantasy points in just 30.5 minutes. He was red hot from the field, making 11 of 17 field goal attempts in a game the Warriors won by 20 points. It’s not surprising that Thompson had a big hand in a blowout: Last season Thompson was significantly better in games in which the Warriors were favored by at least 15 points:
The Warriors opened up as ‘just’ 7.5-point favorites today against the Nuggets, but that number has risen to 9.0 as a result of 91 percent of the bets landing on the Warriors. He’ll likely draw a significant amount of ownership given the lack of quality options at the position, but Thompson is a player with a wide range of outcomes.
Value
The Bulls have been terrible to start the season – they sit at 14th in the Eastern Conference – but one player enjoying himself is Justin Holiday. His current average of 34.7 minutes per game and usage rate of 22.3 are blowing away his previous career highs, and he has a decent matchup against a New Orleans team that ranks sixth in the league in pace. His $5,600 salary on FanDuel is accompanied with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
David Nwaba has posted a Plus/Minus of at least +9.69 on DraftKings in three of his last four games for the Chicago Bulls. His minutes have fluctuated over that time, ranging from as many as 35 to as few as 16, but he doesn’t need to play a ton of minutes to pay off his $3,900 salary on DraftKings given his average of 0.87 fantasy points per minute.
Jimmy Butler leads all SGs on DraftKings with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. Butler has sacrificed a lot of his offensive game to try to make things work in Minnesota – his current usage rate of 21.6 percent ranks just fifth on the team – and his fantasy numbers have taken a big hit as a result. That said, he’s still Jimmy: He trails only Curry among SG-eligible players on DraftKings with his current ceiling projection.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is about as consistent of a fantasy option as you can find at the SF position, leading all players with a past-year Consistency Rating of 88 percent on FanDuel. We know about his ability to score the basketball — he’s on pace to average over 25 points per game for the 10th straight year — but he’s elevated his defensive game this season, ranking second in the league in blocked shots per game. He has an excellent individual matchup against Wilson Chandler, who ranked 65th out of 74 qualifiers at SF in DRPM last season. His Bargain Rating of 90 percent on FanDuel is also the third-highest mark at the position.
Values
Speaking of Chandler: He deserves some attention on today’s slate. He replaced Danilo Gallinari in the starting lineup this season for the Nuggets, and so far it has been disastrous for his fantasy numbers. His usage has plummeted from 22.0 percent last season to just 13.2 percent this year, which has resulted in an average of just over 19 fantasy points per game to start the season. Still, he has an excellent matchup against the Warriors, who have allowed a FanDuel Plus/Minus of +6.52 to opposing SFs this year. His salary has also decreased by at least $500 on both sites since the start of the season.
Fast Break
Stanley Johnson is playing big minutes for the Pistons recently, seeing at least 31 minutes of court time in four of his last five games. At his current $3,900 salary on DraftKings, he has value as a wing player just by being on the court for that much time:
E’Twuan Moore also fits this trend, which isn’t surprising given that he’s played at least 29 minutes in all but two games this season.
Harrison Barnes has quietly been getting the job done for the Dallas Mavericks this season:
He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 90 percent to start the year on DraftKings and draws an interesting matchup today against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Despite being likely to go against Butler, who is an elite defender, Barnes seems to have an exploitable matchup against the Timberwolves, who have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +2.06 to SFs on DraftKings this season. His ceiling projection trails only Durant’s at the position.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has been playing heavy minutes this season for the Pelicans, going for at least 39 in virtually every game that he’s finished:
The big concern for Davis and the Pelicans is that their matchup with the Bulls is on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back. Historically, Davis has struggled in similar situations:
Still, he may be too good of a value too pass up at $11,200 on DraftKings, where he leads the PF position with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Values
Dirk Nowitzki is playing limited minutes this year for the Mavericks, but the old man can still get it done: He’s scored at least 23.25 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. That’s really all that you’re looking for at his current $4,600 salary, and he has a matchup today against a Timberwolves team that has been weak against PFs to start the season:
Zach Randolph is another old guy who is probably underpriced in the daily fantasy hoops industry, this time on FanDuel at just $4,600. He’s averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute this year, so he doesn’t need to play many minutes to be a value at his salary. It will be intriguing to see how he fares without George Hill in the lineup; Randolph has only played four minutes without him this season.
Fast Break
Slowly but surely, the Nuggets appear to be figuring out their offense. They’re up to 11th in offensive efficiency after a slow start to the season, and Paul Millsap has scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in five straight games. He has an excellent matchup today against the Golden State Warriors, who have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +5.86 to opposing PFs this season. This also represents a pace-up spot for the Nuggets – their pace differential (paceD) of +1.5 is third on the slate – and Millsap has historically been at his best in comparable pace-up situations:
Here’s what Lauri Markkanen has done this season:
He’s tied with Davis and DeMarcus Cousins for the most Pro Trends at the position with 12 on DraftKings.
Center
Studs
The C position is loaded today, with four players possessing salaries of at least $9,400 on FanDuel. Even among all that talent, DeMarcus Cousins stands out in a tier of his own given what he’s done this year:
What’s been even more impressive is that he’s managed to return value in a variety of ways: He’s currently posting career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks per game. He should have an exploitable matchup today against Robin Lopez, who ranked just 48th out of 69 centers in DRPM last season. As with Davis, however, we have to consider the fact that Cousins has historically been brutal in road back-to-backs:
Considering that he’s the most expensive player on the slate on both sites and has been priced up considerably since the start of the season, that is concerning. There’s little margin for error at $12,000 on FanDuel and $11,800 on DraftKings.
Karl-Anthony Towns is significantly cheaper than Cousins and has an elite matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who have been destroyed on the glass over the last two seasons: It’s no surprise they’re allowing a Plus/Minus of +4.06 to the center position on DraftKings. Early in his young career, Towns has obliterated the Mavericks in seven career meetings:
Andre Drummond has been a stud recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.97 on DraftKings over his last seven games. He leads the position with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings and has one of the top matchups of the day against a Kings team that’s currently allowing a Plus/Minus of +7.14 to opposing centers. Given the lack of talent at the other positions, playing two centers on DraftKings will likely be the default strategy for most people.
Value
This season Willie Cauley-Stein has been the biggest beneficiary in usage and fantasy production with Hill off the court:
We shouldn’t read too much into this given that it’s based on a small sample, but it is notable nonetheless. He has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Given the other options on the slate, Nikola Jokic may be the forgotten man at the center position even though he’s an elite option in his own right: He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.07. Like his teammate Millsap, he’s picked it up after a slow start to the season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.65 over his last five games.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
