The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Stephen Curry has been excellent to start the season, posting a Consistency Rating of 100% and an average Plus/Minus of +4.19 through his first seven games on FanDuel. He’s shot the absolute lights out, averaging a career-best 33.9 points on 52.9% shooting from the field and 51.7% shooting from 3-point range. That combination of volume and efficiency is extremely impressive, even for an elite shooter such as Curry.
He has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Chicago Bulls, who have been one of the worst teams in the league in defensive efficiency to start the season. The Warriors are currently implied for 120 points, and Curry’s $9,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Kawhi Leonard will sit out today’s contest vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, which could mean big things for Kyle Lowry. He dominated in his first game this season with Leonard out of the lineup, posting a usage rate of 30.6% and scoring 55.25 DraftKings points. That said, the Raptors do have a tough matchup vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, who rank second in the league in defensive efficiency to begin the season.
Value
Luka Doncic is currently listed as questionable for today’s matchup vs. the San Antonio Spurs, and his absence would give a boost to Dennis Smith Jr. He’d likely see a few additional minutes in that situation and has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute to begin the season. The Spurs also represent an excellent matchup: They’ve allowed the second-most points per 100 possessions this year. They’ve been particularly poor against opposing PGs, giving DSJ an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.90. He’s really appealing on DraftKings, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
The Bucks are another team that will be missing a star player on today’s slate, with Giannis Antetokounmpo already ruled out with a concussion. Eric Bledsoe has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with Giannis off the floor this season and looks like one of the best values of the day at $6,100 on DraftKings.
For some reason, Derrick Rose continues to see big minutes for the Minnesota Timberwolves. He’s shot just 41.3% from the field and 27.8% from 3-point range, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.94 on FanDuel. He has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.22.
Shooting Guard
Studs
The injury situations throughout the league have created a lot of value at the SG position on today’s slate.
Anthony Davis will miss his second straight game with an elbow injury, and Jrue Holiday should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of his absence. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.7% with Davis off the floor, but poor shooting numbers have kept down his fantasy production. He averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with Davis and DeMarcus Cousins off the floor last season, so he has big upside at just $6,700 on DraftKings.
That said, his matchup vs. the Denver Nuggets is far from ideal. They rank third in defensive efficiency, and Holiday has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.68 on DraftKings. The Pelicans were also blown out by the Jazz in their first game without Davis this season, so there’s no guarantee they can keep this game competitive.
Khris Middleton is slightly cheaper on FanDuel and has been an absolute monster with Giannis off the court to begin the season. He’s posted a usage rate of 37.3% and averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute, and he has a slightly more appealing matchup vs. the Toronto Raptors. They rank sixth in defensive efficiency, but they allowed a season-high 113 points in their only game with Leonard out of the lineup.
Value
Malcolm Brogdon could be another source of value for the Bucks. He’s seen one of the largest boosts in production with Giannis off the floor this season, averaging 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him one of the best values of the day at just $4,600 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan could fly a bit under the radar on today’s slate but has an elite matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.30 on FanDuel, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Wesley Matthews has been a nice source of value early in the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.79 through his first six games. He’s also seen one of the largest usage bumps on the team with Doncic off the floor, so he could see an expanded role again today.
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Small Forward
Studs
LeBron James has started to turn things around as a member of the Lakers, scoring at least 59.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He’s now averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute to begin the season, which is more than he averaged in his elite final season with the Cavaliers.
He leads all players at the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings and has an excellent matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Lakers’ implied team total of 121.0 points ranks second on the slate, and LeBron owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.62.
Kevin Durant hasn’t been as efficient as Curry to begin the season, but he’s been about as close as possible: He’s averaged 30.3 points per game on 55.6/35.5/93.2 shooting splits. To put that in perspective, both Curry and Durant are averaging more than 30 points per game while shooting better than 50% from the field and 90% from the 3-point line, which is something that has been done only once in the history of the NBA (Curry in 2015-16).
He has an excellent individual matchup today vs. the Chicago Bulls, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.53 on DraftKings. He has a slightly better Bargain Rating than LeBron on FanDuel, which could make him the preferred stud option at the position.
Value
Harrison Barnes appears to be fully removed from the hamstring injury that caused him to miss the first four games of the season. He played 34.5 minutes in his most recent game, but his overall fantasy production was limited by shooting just 3-of-13 from the field. He would also get a big boost to his fantasy stock if Doncic were to miss today’s contest: He’s seen a usage bump of +8.5% with Doncic off the floor this season.
Fast Break
Nikola Mirotic didn’t see much of a bump with Davis out of the lineup last game, but he’s already a focal point of the Pelicans offense. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 28.6% in four of his first five games, resulting in an average of 1.32 FanDuel points per minute.
The best matchup at the position belongs to Taurean Prince, who owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.66 on DraftKings vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s posted a usage rate of 27.8% to begin the season and has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute. He’s priced at just $6,700, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Power Forward
Stud
The PF position isn’t nearly as strong as the others on today’s slate. Paying up doesn’t seem like the best decision, but LaMarcus Aldridge could be the exception on FanDuel. He’s priced at $8,700, giving him a Bargain Rating of 81%, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.79. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends and has averaged 1.18 FanDuel points per minute.
Value
Kyle Kuzma should earn one more start while Brandon Ingram serves the final game of his suspension. He’s one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
He’s averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute to start the season and is currently projected for 31 minutes on today’s slate, and this matchup between the Lakers and Timberwolves should be one of the best of the day from a DFS perspective.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam could play a huge role for the shorthanded Raptors. They’re going to be without OG Anunoby in addition to Leonard, which opens up a tremendous amount of minutes on the wing. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute with Leonard off the floor this season and could play more than 30 minutes vs. the Bucks. That would make him one of the best values of the day at just $4,400 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings.
Kelly Olynyk has started each of the past two games for the Miami Heat and has played at least 28.5 minutes in both. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute, and his $4,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. The 76ers have the top implied team total of the day at 121.25 points, and Embiid has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute. Embiid crushed the Hawks in his only meeting with them last season, scoring 58.0 DraftKings points (per the Trends tool).
Value
Mitchell Robinson entered the starting lineup for the Knicks in their last game and finished with more 29 minutes. He’s still priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel at $3,500, which could make him an intriguing target vs. the Brooklyn Nets.
Fast Break
Julius Randle entered the starting lineup for Davis in the Pelicans’ last game and should remain there for today’s contest. He played just 18.5 minutes in a blowout on Saturday, but he should play more today presuming the game stays competitive. He’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute and is priced very fairly across the industry.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above (left to right): Milwaukee Bucks SG Khris Middleton and PG Eric Bledsoe
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
