The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games on DraftKings, despite the fact that he played just 30 minutes in a blowout win in his last contest. He remains a massive value on DraftKings, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Historically, Lillard has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.30 and a Consistency Rating of 60.3% with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
He has a decent matchup today vs. the Washington Wizards, who have played at the 10th-fastest pace to begin the season. It results in an implied team total of 115.5 points for the Blazers, which is the fifth-highest mark on the slate.
If his first three games are any indication, Kemba Walker could be in line for a huge season. He’s posted an average usage rate of 36.6% — which would shatter his previous career-high of 29.2% — and has launched a ridiculous 12.7 three-point attempts per game. The result is an average of 1.45 DraftKings points per minute to begin the year, which could make him a bargain at his current salary across the industry.
That said, he does have difficult matchup today vs. the Toronto Raptors. The Hornets’ implied team total of 106.5 points is the third-lowest mark on the slate, and Walker has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.82 on FanDuel.
Value
Lonzo Ball has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute to begin the season, but his overall fantasy production has been hampered by an average of just 23.0 minutes per game. That shouldn’t be a problem today with Rajon Rondo serving the first game of a three-game suspension after getting into an altercation with Chris Paul.
He also has an excellent matchup vs. the San Antonio Spurs, who have been the fourth-worst defensive team to begin the season. They figure to continue to struggle against opposing PGs with Dejounte Murray on the sidelines: He was the top defender at the PG position in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season. Ball looks like an excellent value on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
John Wall has seen a price increase of +$700 on DraftKings to begin the season but still appears to be a nice value: His $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute and is projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models.
Most of the PGs on today’s slate are worse values on FanDuel, but one exception is Patty Mills. He’s priced at just $4,000 and is expected to play roughly 30 minutes in one of the best game environments of the day. The Lakers have played at the fastest pace in the league and have also been subpar in defensive efficiency.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Jimmy Butler should be back in the lineup for the Timberwolves after resting on Saturday. He’s been a monster to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +16.40 on DraftKings through his first two games. He’s almost undoubtedly underpriced at just $8,000 on DraftKings, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 99%.
DeMar DeRozan has had a pretty smooth transition to the Spurs, averaging a higher usage rate and more minutes per game than he did last season with the Raptors. He’s also seen a slight bump in fantasy points per minute, and his current salary across the industry makes him one of the best values of the day considering his matchup vs. the Lakers.
Value
Justin Holiday posted 35.2 fantasy points in his most recent contest and remains affordable at just $4,500 on FanDuel. The Bulls have an excellent matchup today vs. the Mavericks, who have posted the worst Defensive Rating through their first two games of the season.
Fast Break
Devin Booker has seen a slight price decrease on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Warriors, which could make him an intriguing target. He leads all SGs with 10 Pro Trends and has averaged 1.18 FanDuel points per minute. That said, the Suns are the largest underdogs on the slate at +12.5 currently.
Josh Hart is another candidate to see a few extra minutes for the Lakers and has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute to begin the season. He’s priced at just $5,100 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%.
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Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the league with a usage rate of 39.5% this season, which gives him massive upside every time he takes the floor. In addition to his scoring prowess, he’s also ripped down at least 15 rebounds and handed out at least five assists in each of his first two games this season, which gives him arguably the safest floor of any player in the league.
He has a nice matchup today vs. the Knicks, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 118.5 points is the second-highest mark on the slate. Giannis has historically loved playing the Knicks, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.52 in six matchups over the past two seasons.
LeBron James has yet to look like his old fantasy self with the Lakers, averaging just 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -6.65 through his first two games, but he could finally break out on today’s slate. It’s obviously a small sample size, but he’s seen a usage bump with both Brandon Ingram and Rondo off the court. His $10,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Jonathon Simmons played just 22.5 minutes in his most recent contest, but that’s not all that surprising considering that the Magic lost by 32 points. He should return to his normal workload today, and he’s been priced down to just $4,300 on FanDuel. That represents a decrease of $1,000 since the start of the season, which makes this a nice buy-low opportunity.
Fast Break
Otto Porter averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute last season and is currently projected for 33.0 minutes in our NBA Models. Porter is a boom-or-bust type option, but that combination of playing time and production makes him a nice value at $6,300.
Jabari Parker is #bad at basketball, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a valuable fantasy asset. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute to begin the season, and he could improve upon that number in an elite matchup vs. the Mavericks.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge is an interesting option on today’s slate. He’s posted one great game and one poor game to begin the season, and the addition of DeRozan seems certain to cut into his usage rate this season. He’s at just 22.9% to begin this season, which represents a 6.2% decrease compared to his mark from 2017-18 (29.1%).
That said, he still seems underpriced for today’s matchup vs. the Lakers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.85 on FanDuel, and the Spurs will likely be implied for one of the highest team totals of the day when the line is posted.
Value
Domantas Sabonis and T.J. Leaf missed Saturday’s contest with injuries, and both are currently questionable for today’s slate. If they are unable to go, it will likely result in an uptick in minutes for Thaddeus Young. He’s struggled in his first two games of the season but averaged 0.84 FanDuel points per minute in 2017-18. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.42.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum has spent more time at the power forward position this season, which has had a major impact on his fantasy stock. He managed just 5.0 rebounds per game during his rookie season but has averaged 10.7 rebounds per game during his first three games of 2018-19. He’s seen a large price increase on FanDuel to begin the season, but his $7,000 salary still results in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Kyle Kuzma seems like the most logical replacement for Ingram in the starting lineup and should see a few additional minutes on today’s slate. He averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute last season, and his $5,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Center
Stud
The Knicks lost Kyle O’Quinn to free agency and Kristaps Porzingis to injury, which has resulted in more consistent playing time for Enes Kanter this season. He’s averaged 31.3 minutes per game to start 2018-19 – which would represent a career-high – and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.16 on DraftKings. He averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute last season, so it’s not surprising that he’s performed well given some additional playing time.
Value
Myles Turner figures to be the biggest beneficiary for the Pacers if Sabonis and Leaf are inactive for today’s contest. He played just 26.5 minutes Saturday against the Nets, but the Pacers ultimately won by 20 points. He has averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute to begin the season and could see a few additional minutes today against the Timberwolves.
Fast Break
DeAndre Ayton isn’t exactly a ‘value’ at $6,800 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel but might be the strongest play at the position on today’s slate. He was limited to just 22.5 minutes in his most recent contest, struggling with foul trouble against Nikola Jokic. He should return to his normal workload today vs. the Golden State Warriors and has averaged 1.00 fantasy point per minute to start the season.
Pau Gasol has seen a minimal workload to begin the season, but he should see more than the 17 minutes he got in his most recent contest. He’s still been productive on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute, and his salary has decreased to just $4,700 on DraftKings. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.96 in an elite matchup vs. the Lakers.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Lakers PG Lonzo Ball
Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
