The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving had a slow start to the season but has turned it around lately, averaging a Plus/Minus of +9.27 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He doesn’t typically play a tremendous amount of minutes – he’s averaging just 32.3 per game – but has made up for it by averaging 1.41 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who have played at the third-fastest pace this season. The Celtics’ implied team total of 112.5 ranks fourth on the slate and represents an increase of more than six points compared to their season average (106.3). Irving also has a strong individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.69 on FanDuel.
Value
Ryan Arcidiacono and D.J. Augustin are both interesting value options on today’s slate. Arcidiacono is playing all the minutes he can handle for the Bulls, seeing at least 30.5 in six of his past seven games. He hasn’t been very productive when on the court, averaging just 0.64 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but he’s still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past nine games. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the San Antonio Spurs, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.10.
Augustin isn’t seeing the same quantity of minutes as Arcidiacono but has been much more productive. He’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s a slightly better value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker was a slight disappointment yesterday vs. the Hawks but was plagued by shooting just 7-of-23 from the field. He remains one of the better values at the position on FanDuel, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and the Hornets’ implied team total of 115.25 ranks second on the slate.
The Bucks lead the slate with an implied team total of 120.25 points, which makes Eric Bledsoe an interesting option. He’s been a nice value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.23 on FanDuel, and has averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Shooting Guard
Studs
DeMar DeRozan has had a smooth transition from Toronto to San Antonio and is currently averaging career-highs in points, assists and rebounds per game. He has a nice matchup today vs. the Chicago Bulls, who rank just 21st in defensive efficiency this season. He’s one of the better values at the position on FanDuel, where he’s priced at $8,900.
On the other side of the same matchup, Zach LaVine looks like an appealing target on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 40.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, yet his salary has actually decreased by $200 over that time frame. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
The Cavaliers have the potential to be really shorthanded on today’s slate. They played just nine players in their most recent contest, and David Nwaba was second on the team with 38.5 minutes played. He’s been ruled out of today’s contest with a knee injury, which opens up a lot of minutes on the wing.
One player who could potentially take advantage is Rodney Hood, who is priced at just $4,200 on DraftKings. He’s been productive over the past month, averaging 0.81 DraftKings points per minute, and is currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He has a nice matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, who rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency this season.
Fast Break
The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown today, which should result in a few extra minutes for Marcus Smart. He’s averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has also seen a slight bump in usage with Brown off the floor this season. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%.
Steph Curry remains sidelined for the Warriors, which keeps Klay Thompson firmly on the DFS radar. He’s seen a massive bump in usage with Curry out of the lineup this season and has posted a usage rate of at least 32.2% in each of his past four games. As a result, he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he remains affordable at $7,200 on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Studs
The top of the SF position features a difficult decision between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant.
Let’s start with Giannis. He has arguably the highest ceiling in DFS and has demonstrated it by scoring at least 73 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. He currently ranks fourth in the league in usage rate at 32.8%, and no one can match his ability to gobble up peripheral statistics.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Hornets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.00, and he leads all SFs with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings. He’s also one of the best pure values at the position, as his $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Even with Curry out of the lineup, Giannis gets the clear nod on DraftKings.
It’s much closer on FanDuel, where Durant will save you $1,200 compared to the Greek Freak. The Warriors have started to find their groove offensively without Curry, scoring at least 117 points in back-to-back games. Durant has unsurprisingly been a huge part of that, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +16.54 over his past two contests. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.46 fantasy points per minute with Curry off the court, which gives him a minuscule edge over Giannis on FanDuel.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Value
James Ennis could be an intriguing option for the Rockets today, especially if Chris Paul is unable to suit up. He’s played at least 29 minutes in five of his past six games but remains affordable at just $3,700 on FanDuel. He’s averaged just 0.61 FanDuel points per minute this season, but players with comparable salaries, per-minute outputs and minute projections have still managed an average Plus/Minus of +2.22 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Rudy Gay has been a nice fantasy option this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.29 on FanDuel. He’s been even better recently, averaging 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and is currently projected for 30.5 minutes vs. the Bulls. He’s a nice option at $6,300 on FanDuel.
Gordon Hayward should see a boost in production with Brown out of the lineup. He’s seen one of the biggest bumps in fantasy output with Brown off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.04 DraftKings points per minute, and should also see a nice spike in playing time. He scored 32.25 fantasy points in his only game with Brown out of the lineup, and that kind of production would make him a nice value at $5,500.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis missed the Pelicans’ last game with a hip injury but is expected to return to the lineup vs. the Celtics. He’s been a fantasy force this season, averaging 1.57 DraftKings points per minute, and routinely plays close to 40 minutes when he’s actually able to avoid heading to the locker room.
That said, the Celtics do represent a difficult matchup. They’re currently tied for first in defensive efficiency, and the Pelicans’ resulting implied team total of 111.5 represents a decrease of greater than seven points compared to their season average (118.8). Still, Davis crushed the Celtics in two meetings last season, averaging 66.13 DraftKings points per game, and is currently projected for just 13-16% ownership on DraftKings. He could be an awesome target in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) considering his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
The PF position looks like one of the best spots to save some salary today. Marvin Williams is priced at just $3,700 on DraftKings and is coming off his best game of the season on Sunday. He scored 41.25 DraftKings points in 35.5 minutes, but the fact that the Hornets are on a back-to-back means his price has yet to be adjusted. He likely won’t see as many minutes today – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is expected to return to the lineup – but he’s still underpriced.
P.J. Tucker is another viable option for those looking to pay down. He’s playing huge minutes right now, seeing at least 41.5 in each of his past two games, which is more than enough to make up for a lackluster average of 0.59 DraftKings points per minute. He’s in a solid spot vs. the Wizards, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.01 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Larry Nance Jr. has always been a great per-minute producer and this season has been no exception: He’s averaging 1.10 FanDuel points per minute through his first 16 games. He has a chance to see a few additional minutes today for the shorthanded Cavs, which makes him an appealing target across the industry.
Nikola Mirotic remains underpriced at just $6,900 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s scored at least 34.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three games and has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute for the season.
Center
Studs
Karl-Anthony Towns is loving life without Jimmy Butler, at least from a fantasy perspective. He’s increased his production to 1.42 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is coming off 74.0 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. He’s in a great spot today vs. the Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and his $10,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
As good as Towns has been recently, Nikola Vucevic has been even better. He’s dominated over his past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.65 on DraftKings, yet his salary has actually decreased by $200 over that time frame. He’s priced at just $7,800 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Warriors, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.
The matchup vs. the Warriors is a bit scary – they’ve been known to run big men off the floor – and Vucevic struggled to an average Plus/Minus of -8.29 in two matchups vs. them last season. That said, they’ve been playing more traditional big men with Curry and Draymond Green out of the lineup recently, and they’ve been playing at a much slower pace as well. Overall, this spot sets up pretty well for Vucevic to do what he’s done all season: smash.
Value
Al Horford has seen a big price decrease across the industry over the past month but has actually been a pretty reliable contributor. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 92% on DraftKings and has been good for somewhere between 25 and 30 fantasy points on most evenings. He has appeal at his current reduced salary, especially with Brown out of the lineup.
Fast Break
Tristan Thompson has been one of the best values in fantasy recently, owning an average Plus/Minus of +11.31 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s coming off a season-high 39 minutes in his most recent contest and has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him a nice value at $6,100.
Dwight Howard is not expected to play today with a glute injury, which means Clint Capela should have his way with the Wizards inside. They’ve been the worst rebounding team in the league with Howard out of the lineup this season, and Capela has averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.19 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He’s fairly priced at $7,900, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 93%, and pairing Capela with another center is definitely a viable strategy on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Kyrie Irving
Photo credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
