The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Wizards finally grabbed their third win of the season on Saturday, and they’ll look to make it two in a row today vs. the Orlando Magic. Their struggles haven’t really affected John Wall from a fantasy perspective, who has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He’s been playing all the minutes he can handle recently, seeing at least 41 in three straight games, and his average of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute ranks second on the slate at the position.
He’s in a solid spot today vs. the Magic, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 115.0 points ranks third on the slate. Wall is an awesome value on DraftKings, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Landry Shamet looks like he could be a big part of the new-look 76ers rotation. He played 42.5 minutes in their last game, and his ability to shoot the ball from deep will be important on a team that doesn’t have a ton of floor-spacers. He’s in a great spot today vs. the Miami Heat, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.78 on DraftKings. He’s extremely cheap across the industry and gives a lot of lineup flexibility.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler is not expected to make his 76ers debut until Wednesday, so they will remain shorthanded on today’s slate. That could mean another expanded workload for Ben Simmons, who played 38.5 minutes and scored 43.5 DraftKings points in his last game. He’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Heat, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +10.87 on DraftKings is the top mark at the position.
Patrick Beverley is starting to see increased playing time for the Clippers, getting at least 30 minutes in three straight games. He’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $4,100 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Zach LaVine has been awesome this season for the Chicago Bulls, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.52 on DraftKings. He’s seen a large price increase over that time frame, but his $8,300 salary still comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
He has a great matchup today vs. the Dallas Mavericks. They rank just 26th in defensive efficiency, and LaVine owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.96. No one at the position is projected for more than his 38.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him one of the safest floors on the slate.
Value
The Magic have the potential to be pretty shorthanded today: Jonathan Isaac will miss his sixth straight game, while Aaron Gordon is listed as questionable. Terrence Ross has been the primary beneficiary of Isaac’s absence, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.77 on FanDuel over his past five games. He’s been efficient all season, averaging 0.93 fantasy points per minute, and he has a nice matchup vs. the defensively-challenged Wizards on today’s slate. He’s a nice value on FanDuel, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
The Thunder will be without Russell Westbrook again today, which will give Dennis Schroder another opportunity to run the show. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +3.1% with Westbrook off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.10 FanDuel points per minute. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past six games but remains affordable at $7,200 on FanDuel.
Devin Booker is in an interesting spot on the other side of the same game. He has a difficult individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.31, but he leads all players on today’s slate with 15 Pro Trends. That’s a massive number, and SGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.08 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). He could be worth some consideration in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his ownership projection of just 9-12%.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant did not disappoint in his first game without Stephen Curry, scoring 57.75 DraftKings points in just 30.5 minutes of playing time. Overall, he’s seen a usage bump of +7.3% with Curry off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.59 DraftKings points per minute. He’s in a mediocre spot today vs. the Clippers, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.68 on DraftKings, but the Warriors’ implied team total of 115.5 points ranks second on the slate. He’s in play in all formats.
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Value
The Mavericks could be without Luka Doncic on today’s slate, and Wesley Matthews has already been ruled out. That should give Harrison Barnes a big boost in fantasy value. He’s averaged a usage rate of 39.5% with both players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.95 DraftKings points per minute. He’s projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him one of the best values of the day at just $5,000 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Caris LeVert was a massive disappointment in his last game, scoring just 5.50 DraftKings points, causing his salary to drop by $600 on DraftKings. That could make him an intriguing buy-low target on today’s slate. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.02 vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves.
T.J. Warren is back in the starting lineup for the Phoenix Suns, and he’s been doing what he does best – getting buckets. He’s posted 43.5 and 44.9 FanDuel points in his last two games, and he remains affordable across the industry for today’s matchup vs. the Thunder.
Power Forward
Stud
It’s hard to get behind Anthony Davis today for possibly the first time all season. The Pels are in a brutal spot vs. the Toronto Raptors, who have been one of the best defensive teams in the league over the past two seasons. As a result, he has the lowest Projected Plus/Minus among PFs projected for at least 10 minutes of playing time on DraftKings. Davis can obviously go off against anyone, but it’s hard not to prefer Durant at a cheaper price tag with Curry out of the lineup.
Value
It looks tough to pay down too much at the PF position on today’s slate, but one player worth some attention is Jaren Jackson Jr. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute and has seen a nice bump in playing time recently, getting at least 30.5 minutes in three straight games.
Fast Break
The Toronto Raptors may have found something in Pascal Siakam. He’s been a monster this season, averaging 0.98 FanDuel points per minute, and the Toronto coaching staff has rewarded him with more playing time as a result of his strong play. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games on FanDuel, and the Raptors’ implied team total of 120.25 is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin.
Danilo Gallinari has PF eligibility on DraftKings and could be worth a look at $5,600. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in his past two games, but that’s caused his salary to decrease by $500 over that time frame. He’s still managed an excellent 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season and did play over 40 minutes in his last contest.
Center
Stud
If the last game is any indication, Karl-Anthony Towns is going to enjoy playing basketball without Butler. He posted his highest usage rate of the season, resulting in 66.75 DraftKings points. They will be without Robert Covington and Dario Saric today, while Jeff Teague and Andrew Wiggins are both currently listed as questionable. Wiggins was able to practice this morning, but the Timberwolves have been a nightmare this season in terms of ruling players in/out of the lineup before lock. Regardless, Towns’ fantasy future is bright.
Value
Mike Muscala is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and has the potential to play a big role in the 76ers’ rotation on today’s slate. He’s currently projected for 28.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and his matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a good one: He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.11 on FanDuel. He’s one of the most appealing value options on the slate, but you will have to choose between him and Towns on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Muscala has PF eligibility on DraftKings, so you can possibly play three centers on DraftKings if you play one in the utility spot. That seems like a wise decision, because there are a bunch of centers that look like excellent values on today’s slate:
- Hassan Whiteside: 99% Bargain Rating
- Marc Gasol: 99% Bargain Rating
- DeAndre Jordan: 90% Bargain Rating
- Steven Adams: 99% Bargain Rating
- Jarrett Allen: 95% Bargain Rating
Whiteside is the most expensive of the group but also has the best individual matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.95 vs. the 76ers. He’s been a monster this season, averaging 1.45 DraftKings points per minute, but will have to avoid foul trouble vs. Embiid.
Allen is the cheapest option at $5,100, but this could be a good spot to buy low on him. He struggled in his last game vs. the Warriors but should be able to stay on the floor more in today’s contest vs. the Timberwolves. He’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need to play much to have a shot at returning value.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Kevin Durant
Photo credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
