The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET
Point Guard
Stud
The Warriors are going to be shorthanded today, with DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Iguodala both ruled out with injuries. Steph Curry undoubtedly sees a boost in value in their absence. Curry has seen a usage bump of +6.4% with Cousins off the court since he joined the rotation on January 18th, resulting in an average of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30).
He also has a nice matchup today vs. the San Antonio Spurs, who have struggled defensively against point guards this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.49 on FanDuel, where Curry leads all point guards with 11 Pro Trends. His $9,400 salary on FanDuel also comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Value
Emmanuel Mudiay has been fantastic recently, scoring at least 36.8 FanDuel points in two of his past three games. He’s played at least 32.5 minutes in each of his past three contests and should see another big workload tonight with Dennis Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina out of the lineup with injuries.
He’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some serious damage with an increased workload. Mudiay is a steal at $4,900 on FanDuel despite owning a difficult matchup vs. the Raptors.
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum is going to miss tonight’s contest vs. the Pacers, and Damian Lillard has posted a usage rate of 40.0% with McCollum off the court this season. The result is an average of 1.55 DraftKings points per minute. The Pacers represent a difficult matchup — they rank second in defensive efficiency this season — but Lillard still possesses huge upside.
The Jazz are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Washington Wizards. They rank eighth in pace and tied for 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Jazz’ implied team total of 116.5 ranks second on the slate. Ricky Rubio hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes recently, but he’s still scored at least 26.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He deserves some attention at just $5,000 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Phoenix Suns are another team that will be pretty shorthanded on tonight’s slate. Richaun Holmes, Tyler Johnson, and Kelly Oubre have all been ruled out with various maladies.
Devin Booker figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and that number has increased to 1.30 DraftKings points per minute with both Oubre and Johnson off the court. He’s in an excellent spot vs. the Chicago Bulls, who rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season. Booker is priced at a discount at $8,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Russell Westbrook picked up his 16th technical foul of the season in his last game, which means he’ll be forced to sit out tonight’s contest vs. the Miami Heat. That should give Dennis Schroder a big boost in value.
He’s seen a usage bump of +7.4% with Westbrook off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. He’s averaged 35.81 DraftKings points in eight games with Westbrook out of the lineup this season, making him one of the best values of the day at just $5,100 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Dallas Mavericks are in arguably the best spot of the day vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. Their implied team total of 118.75 ranks first on the slate and represents a huge increase when compared to their season average (107.9). Tim Hardaway Jr. has played at least 36 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s priced at just $5,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Danny Green could be an interesting option today vs. the Knicks. He’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and should see a boost in playing time with Kawhi Leonard ruled out for rest. He’s also one of the better values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George is one of the strongest overall plays on today’s slate. He’s seen a price decrease of -$1,100 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. George has crushed with a comparable price tag this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.00 in 32 previous contests.
He will obviously also benefit from the absence of Westbrook. George has seen a usage bump of +4.1% with Westbrook off the court this season and has averaged 47.91 DraftKings points in eight previous games without his star running mate. He’s currently projected for 38.4 minutes in our NBA Models, and his 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. He’s an extremely safe option for cash games and provides plenty of upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Value
The Raptors have a pair of interesting small forward options with Leonard out of the lineup today. OG Anunoby is dirt cheap across the industry and should see a healthy amount of playing time. He’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with a comparable price tag and minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.03 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Norman Powell is slightly more expensive across the industry but possess more upside. He’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season and scored 40.5 DraftKings points in 24 minutes vs. the Lakers two games ago.
Both players own excellent matchups vs. the Knicks, who rank just 25th in defensive efficiency this season.
Power Forward
Stud
Dwight Powell has been an excellent fantasy option recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.16 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s seen a nice boost in playing time recently, logging at least 32 minutes in seven of his past nine games, so his production isn’t all that surprising given his average of 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s very reasonably priced at $6,600 for an excellent matchup vs. the Pelicans, who have struggled to defend big men all season.
Value
Josh Jackson should be one of the biggest beneficiaries for the shorthanded Suns on today’s slate. He’s coming off 33 minutes in his last contest, and that was with Oubre playing for the majority of the game. He has the potential to play even more on today’s slate, and he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s close to a must play on DraftKings, where his $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Thon Maker could be an interesting contrarian option for the Pistons, who will be without Blake Griffin on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season and is priced at just $3,100, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value at his current salary. He’s in a strong spot vs. the Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and should carry minimal ownership.
No one at the position has been better on a per-minute basis than Domantas Sabonis over the past month. He’s averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute, resulting in a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over that time frame. He has big upside at just $5,600 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Blazers.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has been a strong target recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.14 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s averaged 48.9 DraftKings points per game over the past month, which makes him a very reasonable option at just $8,600 vs. the Cavaliers.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andre Drummond
He should also benefit from the absence of Griffin. He’s increased his usage rate by 3.9% and assist rate by 3.4% with Griffin off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.43 DraftKings points per minute. The Cavs will be without Tristan Thompson and Larry Nance Jr. once again on today’s slate, so Drummond should be able to feast on their shorthanded frontcourt.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Ante Zizic will likely draw another start at center. He’s been excellent in eight games with both Thompson and Nance Jr. out of the lineup this season, averaging 24.7 FanDuel points per game and a +6.2 Plus/Minus. He’s underpriced at just $4,300 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
DeAndre Ayton was ejected in his last game but possesses huge upside at just $6,600 vs. the Bulls. He’s seen the biggest bump in usage on the team with both Johnson and Oubre off the court this season, and he owns an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.96.
Kevon Looney is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%. He should draw the start at center with Cousins out of the lineup and has averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Dennis Schroder (17)
Photo Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
