The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook has averaged a slate-best 1.66 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but that hasn’t translated to a ton of fantasy success. He doesn’t play nearly as many minutes as most of the other stud players in the NBA and is currently averaging just 33.2 minutes per game this season. As a result, he’s posted a Consistency Rating of just 71% on FanDuel over the past month, yet his salary has still increased by $1,000 over his past 10 games.
He doesn’t appear to be in a great spot today vs. the Detroit Pistons, who currently rank 10th in defensive efficiency. The Thunder are implied for just 111 points, which is actually the sixth-lowest mark on the slate. Still, Westbrook leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel and always has big upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The preferred stud option at PG is probably Steph Curry. He didn’t appear to be limited in his first game back from a lengthy injury, logging 36.5 minutes and posting a usage rate of 36.2%. He has one of the best matchups on the board vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who rank first in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency this season.
Curry also has an elite individual matchup vs. Trae Young, who ranks dead last in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) among 92 qualifiers at the PG position. The Warriors’ implied team total of 123 points is the top mark on the slate, and Curry is still priced down when compared to his pre-injury salary across the industry.
Value
Emmanuel Mudiay has put together some big games for the Knicks recently, scoring at least 30.4 FanDuel points in three of his past five games. He’s a valuable fantasy asset when he’s on the court – he’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season – and he’s coming off playing more than 35.5 minutes in his most recent contest.
Mudiay is currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he has excellent matchup vs. the Wizards, which makes him a nice value at just $5,000.
Fast Break
Trae Young is priced at just $6,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s crushed with a comparable salary this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +10.68 (per the Trends tool). He’s in a strong spot vs. the Warriors, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.09.
Jamal Murray is coming off a disappointing game in his last outing, but there are reasons for optimism moving forward. He’s played 35.5 minutes but was plagued by shooting just 2-of-13 from the field. He’s seen a price decrease of $500 over the past month, which makes him a nice buy-low target.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden has failed to return value in each of his past two games, which coincides with Chris Paul’s return to the lineup. That said, Harden has still been excellent on a per-minute basis in those contests, scoring 102.25 DraftKings points in just 58 minutes, and he’s posted a usage rate of at least 35.6% in both contests. His overall production has been held down by reduced minutes in blowouts, but his fantasy arrow is definitely pointing up.
That said, Harden will face one of the toughest defensive matchups possible today vs. Robert Covington. He’s been the best wing defender in the league this season, ranking first in DRPM by a wide margin. He’s had a tremendous impact on the Timberwolves defense in general: They’ve allowed just 98.0 points per 100 possessions with Covington on the floor. Harden could still have some appeal for GPPs – especially considering his projected ownership of just 9-12% on DraftKings – but there are better options for cash games.
Bradley Beal looks like a nice value at just $8,100 for today’s matchup vs. the Knicks. They’ve been abysmal defensively, ranking just 28th in defensive efficiency, and the Wizards are currently implied for 115.25 points. They could also potentially be without Otto Porter Jr., and Beal has increased his fantasy production to 1.05 FanDuel points per minute with Porter off the floor this season.
Either way, Beal should see a boatload of minutes in this contest: He’s projected for a slate-high 41.5 in our NBA Models.
Value
Tonight’s game between the Clippers and Pelicans should be a high-scoring affair, with both teams currently ranking in the top nine in pace and top five in offensive efficiency. The total is set at 236 points, and both teams’ own a top-three implied team total on today’s slate.
That could make Lou Williams an interesting option at just $4,900 on DraftKings. He’s coming off 36.25 DraftKings points in yesterday’s contest and has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season. He doesn’t typically play a ton of minutes, but very few players offer that kind of upside with a comparable price tag.
Fast Break
Death and taxes are the only guarantees in life, but Jrue Holiday return fantasy value is close. He’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating this season on DraftKings, and his current $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and looks like an excellent target vs. the Clippers.
Tim Hardaway Jr. looks like a prime candidate for some positive regression. He’s shot just 27.8% from the field over his past five games, and his salary has dropped considerably from its peak on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s in a decent spot today vs. the Wizards, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.36 on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant failed to return value in his last game, which is not all that surprising given the return of Curry. His usage rate dropped to just 27.6% in that contest, which is significantly lower than his average of 38.3% with Curry out of the lineup.
That said, his salary has been reduced pretty significantly from its peak on FanDuel, and he still played more than than 40 minutes in his last game. The team is still without Draymond Green and Damian Jones, so Durant could see a similar workload if today’s game vs. the Hawks stays competitive. He still has a big ceiling, even if it’s slightly lower than it was without Curry.
Value
Jeff Green could potentially enter the starting lineup if Porter does miss tonight’s contest, which gives him appeal at his current salary across the industry. He’s averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and owns a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.19 vs. the Knicks.
Fast Break
Paul George has posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two games on FanDuel, which has caused his salary to decrease by nearly $1,000 over that time frame. That said, he’s played reduced minutes due to blowouts in both of those games, which makes him a prime buy-low candidate today vs. the Pistons.
George has still managed 1.33 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and leads the position with 14 Pro Trends.
No one at the position is projected for more minutes on today’s slate than Robert Covington, who has posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.28 over his past three games. He always has upside for GPPs given his ability to rack up steals, and he’s seen an uptick in usage and rebound rate after being traded to the Timberwolves.
Power Forward
Stud
There’s no shortage of stud options on today’s slate, but Anthony Davis should be at the top of your list. He’s been sensational all season and particularly dominant over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.43 on DraftKings.
Davis has scored at least 53.25 DraftKings points in 13 straight games, which gives him one of the safest floors in fantasy, and no one on today’s slate can match him in terms of projected ceiling, as well.
Davis is in an elite spot today vs. the Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.26 on DraftKings, and his $11,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. As long as he doesn’t get injured – which unfortunately is always a concern with Davis – it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t provide value.
Value
The Warriors big men could be a nice source of value on today’s slate. They’re pretty shorthanded at both PF and C, so Kevon Looney will draw the start vs. the Atlanta Hawks. It’s an elite matchup – the Hawks rank just 27th in rebound rate – giving Looney an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.77. He should easily exceed his average of 19.0 minutes per game this season and has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute.
Jonas Jerebko could also enter the starting lineup, and he looks like a nice potential value at just $3,800 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he’s averaged 0,87 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Finally, Jordan Bell also figures to see a bump in playing time, and he’s the cheapest option of the bunch across the industry. He leads all three players in terms of per-minute production over the past month, which could make him an intriguing GPP-pivot given his likely lower ownership.
Fast Break
The Knicks are another team that could provide some value at the PF position. Noah Vonleh has been priced down to just $5,500 on FanDuel but is coming off 35 minutes in Saturday’s overtime win vs. the Bucks. He’s averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has provided strong value when given playing time.
Kevin Knox is coming off a season-high 36.5 minutes, and his playing time only figures to increase as the season progresses. He posted a usage rate of 28.7% in that contest, so he has plenty of upside at just $4,400 on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has been a major disappointment recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,000 over that time frame, which could make him a nice value for today’s contest vs. the Houston Rockets. They’ve struggled vs. opposing centers this season, which is part of the reason KAT has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.54.
Value
Tristan Thompson is in the midst of the best season of his career and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.47 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He has one of the best matchups possible vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who have given up big games in bunches to opposing centers this season. They’ve allowed a whopping five 20-20 games, and no other team has allowed more than one. He remains priced at a discount across the industry.
Fast Break
John Collins is listed as a center on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute since returning from injury this season, and tonight’s matchup vs. the Warriors seems to suit his skill set better than the other traditional centers on the roster.
Even if Collins only sees 30 minutes – which is what he’s projected for in the NBA Models – that should still give him a great chance at returning value at his current salary.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Kevon Looney
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
