The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has failed to return value in each of his past four games on DraftKings, despite the fact that he’s averaged 3.75 steals and 0.75 blocks over that time frame. He’s seen a major reduction in usage recently, failing to crack 28.6% in five of his past six games, which is a far cry from his peak of 41.7% two seasons ago. He’s on pace to average a triple-double for the third straight season, but he’s just not the same player from a fantasy perspective.
Westbrook is in an interesting spot today vs. the Chicago Bulls. They rank just 20th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 112.75 sits third on the slate. However, the Thunder are also massive 13-point favorites, so it’s possible Westbrook ends up seeing reduced minutes if the game turns into a blowout. He carries more risk than usual.
Value
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a major disappointment over his past three games but still figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries with Lou Williams out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 32.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That combination would make him an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
The top implied team total of the day belongs to the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are in a pace-up spot vs. the Sacramento Kings. They could also be without starting PG Jeff Teague, which would give Derrick Rose a nice boost in value. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +3.8% with Teague off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.04 FanDuel points per minute.
This could be a nice opportunity to buy somewhat low on Damian Lillard. He’s seen a price decrease of $600 over the past month on FanDuel, and he’s priced at just $8,800 for today’s matchup vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. He’s historically been a strong value with a comparable price tag, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.34 (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden has been absolutely phenomenal over his past two games. He’s recorded a triple-double in each contest, resulting in an average of 78.0 DraftKings points per game. He’s maintained a sky-high usage rate despite the return of Chris Paul, and his average of 37.1% is tops in the league by a wide margin.
That said, he could actually be somewhat contrarian today vs. the Utah Jazz. The Rockets’ implied team total of 108.25 is the fifth-lowest mark on the slate, and both of these teams have played at a bottom-10 pace this season. As a result, Harden is projected for just 9-12% ownership on DraftKings despite owning a Bargain Rating of 95%. His history vs. the Jazz is not great – he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -4.59 over the past 13 meetings on DraftKings – but he still has appeal for guaranteed prize pools at just $10,900.
DeMar DeRozan has not been nearly as effective as Harden recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.49 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, but this could be a nice time to buy low on him. His salary has decreased by $500 over the past month, and he still managed a usage rate of 38.5% in 37.5 minutes in his last contest. DeRozan is a proven scorer and has taken some major steps forward as a distributor this season, so there’s no reason to expect his struggles to continue. He’s also in a nice pace-up spot today vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, who have played at the eighth-fastest pace this season.
Value
Iman Shumpert has been ruled out for the Kings, which means Bogdan Bogdanovic should get another start today vs. the Timberwolves. Bogdanovic has been an awesome source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.71 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s coming off a season-high 37 minutes yesterday vs. the Dallas Mavericks. He leads all SGs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Justin Holiday should continue to see all the minutes he can handle for the Bulls with Zach LaVine sidelined indefinitely. He’s played at least 38 minutes in each of his past two games and has also seen a usage bump of +2.4% with LaVine off the court this season.
Malcolm Brogdon looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s averaged a stout 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a whopping 77.0 DraftKings points in his most recent contest, but he did benefit from the absences of Brogdon and Khris Middleton. Both players will be back in the lineup tonight, so we should probably lower our expectations in a mediocre matchup vs. the Detroit Pistons. The Bucks’ implied team total of 114.5 still ranks second on the slate, but that number is a bit deceiving: It represents a decrease of 3.5 points compared to their season average (118.0).
Giannis didn’t put up a great fantasy game in his first matchup vs. the Pistons this season and was ultimately limited to just 26.25 minutes in a blowout win. No one on the slate has averaged more fantasy points per minute than Giannis over the past month, and his $11,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He will likely be a popular choice across the industry.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica looks like one of the best plays of the day. He’s thrived with both Shumpert and Marvin Bagley off the court this season, averaging 1.16 DraftKings points per minute while increasing his usage rate, assist rate, rebound rate and efficiency. He’s scored at least 40.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games and is coming off 34.5 minutes in his most recent contest. Bjelica is close to a lock on DraftKings, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
The 76ers are back to full strength, which will likely make Ben Simmons a bit of an afterthought on today’s slate. That said, he scored 63.25 DraftKings points yesterday vs. the Cavaliers and has another exploitable matchup today vs. the San Antonio Spurs. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.65 on DraftKings, where his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Devin Booker returned to the Suns’ lineup in their last game, but that didn’t stop T.J. Warren from doing what he does best: getting buckets. He’s scored at least 21 points in each of his past three games and has a strong matchup today vs. the Knicks. They currently rank 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Suns’ implied team total of 110.25 represents a massive increase compared to their season average (102.3). The fact that Kelly Oubre and Austin Rivers are not expected to make their team debuts should solidify his playing time as well.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin has been a nice value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on FanDuel. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends and is in a nice pace-up spot vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, who have played at the fifth-fastest pace this season. He posted a ridiculous 40.7% usage rate in his last meeting with the Bucks, which gives him nice upside on today’s slate.
Value
Lauri Markkanen could be a strong target today vs. the Thunder. He’s coming off 36.5 minutes in his most recent and has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute since returning from injury. He’s been even better with LaVine off the court, averaging 1.11 DraftKings points per minute, and his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. The only real question is if the Bulls can keep this game competitive: They’re currently 13-point underdogs.
Fast Break
Montrezl Harrell has been a disaster recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -6.84 over his past 10 games. That said, he did score 34.0 DraftKings points in his most recent game, and his salary has decreased by $1,600 over the past 10 games. He could be a nice buy-low candidate.
Kevin Knox has tallied at least 35 minutes in three of his past four games and has averaged 35.94 FanDuel points per game over that time frame. He’s in a nice spot vs. the Suns, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns is a really interesting option today vs. the Kings. They’ve struggled against opposing centers all season, giving Towns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.93 on DraftKings. Towns has also seen a slight usage bump with Teague off the court this season, which would give him added upside if the guard is unable to suit up.
Value
Enes Kanter has seen his playing time fluctuate wildly recently, which makes him a risky option today vs. the Suns. That said, he’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has huge upside if he does play toward the high end of his minutes range. The Suns are also one of the best possible matchups for centers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.34 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Nerlens Noel doesn’t offer much in terms of ceiling, but he could be a nice floor play at just $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.20 fantasy points per minute this season and has an elite matchup vs. the Bulls. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.15, and he could see a few additional minutes if this game turns into a blowout.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Pictured Above: Nemanja Bjelica
Photo Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
