The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Today’s slate features a ton of high-pace differential situations with the high-paced Warriors, Rockets, and Suns facing the slow-paced Mavericks, Grizzlies, and Kings. Even the 76ers, who have shown they want to run with Ben Simmons at the helm and rank fourth in pace, have a pace-down spot against the slow Pistons. As a result, only one game tonight has a total at 215 points or higher: The Nuggets-Wizards game, which currently sits at 222.5:
And there’s no certainty this game will play fast: So far in the 2017-18 season the Nuggets rank 29th with a 94.7 pace. They’ve also been much more stout defensively thanks to the addition of Paul Millsap and more minutes on the wing for guys like Gary Harris, who currently ranks seventh with a 97.5 Defensive Rating. Players who simply stack up this game thinking it will shoot out could be disappointed if the current season trends continue for at least another night.
That said, it’s hard to dislike John Wall, even at his slate-high price of $10,300 on FanDuel. Thanks to his backcourt mate Bradley Beal, wing defenders like Harris can’t simply slide down to take on Wall. As a result, Wall should see a ton of sophomore PG Jamal Murray, who has yet to figure out NBA defense, posting a past-year -1.6 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Wall has gone for 50.0 and 45.6 FanDuel points over his first two games and has 40 field goal attempts over that time. He saw his usage rate shoot up without Markieff Morris on the court last season, and that has continued this season: He’s posted a huge 35.2 percent mark, along with a nice 39.1 percent assist rate, through two games.
It’s difficult to discuss Stephen Curry‘s prospects early in the day, as it’s unclear if he’ll be suspended for tonight’s game after throwing his mouthpiece — stop me if you’ve heard this story before — at the referee in the blowout loss to the Grizzlies. Monitor his situation via our News feed; if he’s in, he’s in play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as usual, owning the second-highest projected ceiling among PGs today.
Value
Hawks PG Dennis Schroder is unlikely to suit up due to a sprained left ankle, which means that Malcolm Delaney should get the start against the Heat. He’s been bad offensively this season, posting a terrible 31.8 percent effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in his 11.9 minutes per game sans Schroder, but it doesn’t require a whole lot of production for a guy at $3,000 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel to hit value. He’s capable of racking up peripheral statistics at least, posting eight assists across his last two games. It’s no surprise he leads all PGs today with a +5.14 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Tyler Johnson is a potential pivot up from Delaney in tournaments, as he’s just $4,400 on FanDuel and got up to almost 27 minutes in the last game against the Pacers. He gets an Atlanta squad that has played at a top-10 pace through a couple games and historically hasn’t been great defensively on the perimeter.
Mike Conley leads all PGs with a +5.27 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Rockets, who are much worse on the perimeter without Chris Paul playing. Conley has historically crushed in extreme pace-up games, posting a +5.46 FanDuel Plus/Minus when he’s had a paceD of 4.0 or higher. Tonight, that mark is +7.8.
Update: With Malcolm Brogdon ruled out for the Bucks, Matthew Dellavedova should slide into the starting role. He is unlikely to see a usage rate even approaching 20 percent, but he has upside with his defensive statistics and is only $3,100 on DraftKings and +6.54 on FanDuel. He’s immediately in the cash-game discussion.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is the highest-priced SG on FanDuel by $3,100, and although he’s currently projected for 31-35 percent ownership it will be intriguing to see if people pay for him in cash games or instead elect for other high-priced studs in better matchups like Wall and Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s typically struggled against the Grizzlies . . .
. . . and he’s yet to hit value in his three games this season, posting a cumulative -2.65 Plus/Minus. Still, this is Harden: His 75.2-point projected ceiling beats any other SG’s mark by at least 20 points, and Harden can get rolling against anyone. With CP3 off the floor, he’s posted a 33.1 percent usage rate this year.
Values
Jeremy Lamb will continue to start, and the Hornets remain without three rotation pieces in Michael Carter-Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Cody Zeller. He’s currently second on the team in minutes (33.4), and his 22.5 percent usage rate ranks third among starters. Both him and Houston SG Eric Gordon are priced in the mid tier despite playing high-usage roles in high minutes; Gordon is currently second on the team behind Harden with a massive 32.3 percent usage rate without CP3. Lamb is projected for higher ownership at 26-30 percent on FanDuel, whereas Booker has just as high of a ceiling at projected levels of five to eight percent.
Fast Break
As I’m writing this — oh, the joys of writing about NBA DFS during the day — Eric Bledsoe was ruled out for the Phoenix Suns. That means Devin Booker should be the sun of their offensive solar system: He’s averaged a 30.6 percent usage rate without Bledsoe on the floor this season, which is a boost of 4.8 percentage points.
Delaney might be the popular value plug-in without Schroder, but the Atlanta wings in Marco Belinelli and Kent Bazemore should also get a slight bump. The former has posted a 30.9 percent usage rate in 14.2 minutes per game through the first three games sans Schroder.
Small Forward
Stud
I mentioned positional scarcity with Harden in relation to other high-floor studs at the SG spot, and it’s even worse at SF today. Kevin Durant is the highest-priced option at $10,200, which is a whopping $3,300 more than any other player. He’s dominated the last two games, going for 55.1 and 53.6 FanDuel points in tougher matchups against the Grizzlies and Pelicans. He should have no problem against a Dallas squad that ranks 27th in defense through its first couple of games, and he’ll obviously get a value boost if Curry is suspended. Last season Durant led the team with a 34.9 percent usage rate in the two games he played without Curry.
Values
The mid tier is likely where users will go for a SF tonight: There are nine players priced between $4,400 and $6,900 on FanDuel projected to play 30-plus minutes. The cheapest of those is Memphis second-round rookie Dillon Brooks, who has surprisingly gotten a large role to begin the season. He’s played 32.1 and 29.4 minutes in the last two games, and he’s responded with an average FanDuel Plus/Minus of +16.0. He’s just a little more expensive today at $4,400 on FanDuel, where he comes with a high 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’s second to only Durant with 11 Pro Trends.
Kyle Anderson is a potential GPP pivot from Brooks at $4,800, and he’s also gotten 30 minutes per game for the Spurs in their first couple of contests. The issue with Slow Mo is his tiny usage rate, which is at only 13.9 percent through two games. Perhaps a better pivot in the same range is Phoenix rookie Josh Jackson, who recorded four steals in his last game against the Clippers and certainly has the capability of loading up the box score with defensive stats. The Suns have played fast with Jackson off the court, increasing their pace by 1.2 possessions with the rookie and without Bledsoe.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson has played huge minutes this season, going 37.6 and 35.2 in his first two games. He’s seen a usage rate bump of 3.3 percentage points with Whiteside off the court, and his $4,800 price tag on DraftKings, where he comes with a huge 98 percent Bargain Rating, even puts him in cash-game consideration.
Tobias Harris should see low ownership given his awkward pricing between Durant and the value guys. He’s gone for 39-plus FanDuel points in two of his first three games, and he has a plus matchup against a Philly squad that currently ranks 25th with a 109.0 Defensive Rating.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a PF on FanDuel, and he’s likely the stud you want to pay up for in cash games. Put simply, he’s arguably been the best player in the NBA through the first week. He’s also crushed as a fantasy asset, posting a +14.95 Plus/Minus despite seeing his premium price tags:
He’s averaged a 36.1 percent usage rate this season, and that is unlikely to go down tonight, especially with Brogdon out and Khris Middleton (probable) dealing with an illness. The Hornets rank fourth in defensive efficiency, but they have no one to match up with Giannis with MKG out.
Value
John Collins hasn’t received a ton of minutes this year . . .
. . . but he’s been ridiculously efficient during his time, posting a 1.11 FanDuel points-per-minute mark — second only to Schroder’s mark of 1.17 on the Hawks. Collins is still quite affordable, especially at just $4,000 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Ersan Ilyasova has also been ruled out for the Hawks, and while Collins may not get the starting nod — that distinction could belong to Luke Babbitt, who is just $3,000 on FanDuel — he should see more usage and minutes.
Fast Break
It only took four games for Ben Simmons to hit the $8,000 mark on FanDuel, but it’s warranted, especially after almost getting a triple-double with an 18-10-8 line last game versus the Raptors. He has a tough matchup against a slow-paced Detroit squad, but he’s also projected for low ownership given the pricing dynamics with Giannis at the top and extreme value guys at the bottom.
The PF position, while typically #notgood, is fairly deep tonight. I haven’t even mentioned Frank Kaminsky or James Johnson, who should both get value bumps with injuries to Zeller and Whiteside. Further, that means Draymond Green could be low-owned in tournaments. He saw a usage bump of 3.1 percentage points without Curry last year, and he posted a 21.6 percent assist rate without him as well. There are many good opportunities with the PF position to leverage yourself against the field if one player turns out to be especially chalky.
Center
Studs
Marc Gasol has been a beast in his age-32 season, going for 55.8 and 40.2 FanDuel points over his first two games. He has an extreme pace-up game today against the Houston Rockets, who have played 7.8 possessions/48 faster than the Grizzlies over the past year. As is the case with Conley, it’s hard to ignore this situation: In 51 past games with a paceD of at least 4.0 possessions/48, Gasol has averaged a +6.20 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 62.7 percent Consistency Rating and just 6.1 percent ownership rate.
He has averaged a +5.10 Plus/Minus specifically against the Rockets over the past two seasons.
Value
The center values are much less exciting, although Collins has PF/C dual eligibility on DraftKings. Perhaps it’s worth paying up for a guy like Dwight Howard, who has been awesome in his first two games in Charlotte, averaging a +6.69 DraftKings Plus/Minus:
He’s been a beast on the boards, grabbing 30 through two games, and today he gets a Milwaukee squad that ranks 28th in the league so far with a poor 45.8 percent rebound rate. Dwight is second only to Gasol with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his 93 percent Bargain Rating there makes him affordable.
Fast Break
If you want to pay all the way down, you can take a chance on a guy like Mike Muscala, who is $3,300 on FanDuel and got up to 25.3 minutes last game against the Nets. The big man rotation in Atlanta is thin without Ilaysova, and Muscala should split center minutes with Dewayne Dedmon.
In tournaments it could pay to pivot to high-priced guys like Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid. Those guys have their warts (poor play and/or minutes), but they also boast top-three ceiling projections. Embiid has been off for a couple days to rest, and he went for 38.3 FanDuel points in just 28.0 minutes last game. Jokic, on the other hand, has been awful, posting an average Plus/Minus of -14.52 over his first two starts. That said, those games came against the slow-paced Kings and Jazz. He should have a much easier time accumulating fantasy points tonight against the Wizards, who rank top-11 in pace and below-average defensively.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
