The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Happy Martin Luther King day! The NBA is honoring the great Dr. King by giving us 11 basketball games with start times ranging from 12:30 p.m. ET to 10:30 p.m. ET.
Both FanDuel and DraftKings are giving us multiple slates, although the slates differ by site: DraftKings is offering a five-game early slate starting at 1 p.m. ET and a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET, while FanDuel has a four-game early slate starting at 12:30 p.m. ET and a seven-game main slate starting at 3 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook headlines the PG position today but is available only on FanDuel. He’s been a strong value over his last 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.44, but he’s coming off just 41.0 FanDuel points in his most recent contest.
He’s in an excellent bounce-back spot today vs. the Knicks, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency this season. The Thunder’s resulting implied team total of 117.75 ranks second on the early slate. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends and owns the highest ceiling projection on the early slate.
Value
Kris Dunn has seen a salary decrease of -$1,100 over the past month on DraftKings, which makes him an excellent buy-low target vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. They’ve been the worst defensive team in the league by a wide margin, allowing 115.0 points per 100 possessions. Dunn has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $6,100 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
The game between the Pelicans and Grizzlies starts at 5:30 p.m. ET and is another game that is exclusive to FanDuel. The Grizzlies are in a massive pace-up spot, which makes them a strong team to target. Mike Conley in particular has a great matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.23 on FanDuel.
Damian Lillard has a difficult matchup vs. the Utah Jazz, but his salary has been decreased to $8,300 on DraftKings as a result. It gives him a Bargain Rating of 93%, and Lillard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.07 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has been playing at such a high level recently that somehow scoring ‘only’ 48 points in his last contest felt a bit disappointing. Still, he accumulated 78.0 DraftKings points in that contest and has scored at least 70.75 DraftKings points in each of his past six games. Overall, he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +14.99 over his past 10 games on DraftKings despite his salary approaching rarely-seen territory during that time frame.
Harden is truly as matchup-proof as it gets, but he’s in a decent spot today vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. They’ve played at the seventh-fastest pace this season, which makes this one of the biggest pace-up spots on the slate. The Rockets are implied for 114.5 points, and you can bet that Harden will be directly responsible for a lot of those. He’s a more appealing value on DraftKings, where his $13,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, but he’s an elite option across the industry.
Value
Sticking with the Rockets, Eric Gordon should also be a huge factor in their offense. They’re still without both Chris Paul and Clint Capela, and Gordon has seen a usage bump of +2.5% with both players off the court this season. He posted a usage rate of 30.0% in his last game and tallied 40.0 FanDuel points in 32 minutes. He’s priced at a discount on FanDuel at just $5,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Buddy Hield is one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged an elite 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season and is coming off 52.3 FanDuel points in 37.5 minutes in his last contest.
On the other side of the same matchup, it’s hard to ignore what D’Angelo Russell has been doing recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.72 on FanDuel over his past 10 games, and the Kings represent an excellent matchup. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, and the Nets’ implied team total of 116.75 is the fifth-highest mark on the slate. Russell is a particularly strong value on FanDuel, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain rating of 93%.
The 76ers will be a really interesting team to monitor today. Both Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid are currently listed as questionable, and their absences would obviously open up a lot of value. Ben Simmons would see the biggest boost in value if both players are unavailable – he’s seen a usage bump of +7.9% with both players off the court this season – but Butler would also get an upgrade if only Embiid is unable to play. He’s priced at just $7,100 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%. Unfortunately, the 76ers don’t take the court until 8 p.m. ET, so it’s possible that we won’t have clarity on this situation prior to lineup lock.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been as good as ever on a per-minute basis over the past month, averaging 1.76 FanDuel points per minute, but his overall output has been limited by a relatively small workload. He’s averaged just 33.0 minutes per game this season, which is significantly lower than guys like Harden and Anthony Davis. He’s been particularly limited recently, playing 25 minutes or fewer in two of his past three games. Giannis has big upside if he sees a larger workload today vs. the Mavericks, but that is far from a guarantee. The fact that he doesn’t share the slate with Westbrook, Harden or Davis on the early slate should make him higher owned than usual as well.
Value
The shorthanded Lakers were dealt another blow on Saturday, losing Lonzo Ball for 4-6 weeks with an ankle sprain. While that’s bad news for them, it does create some value for fantasy players in the form of Lance Stephenson. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and is currently projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute with Ball, LeBron James and Rajon Rondo off the court this season, so he can do a lot of damage when given the opportunity to play extended minutes.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic is an appealing option on DraftKings, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. The Mavericks will be without Dennis Smith Jr. once again for today’s matchup vs. the Bucks, and Doncic has increased his usage rate by +3.5% and assist rate by +13.1% with Smith Jr. and J.J. Barea out of the lineup this season.
The Wizards have a pair of strong SF targets in Trevor Ariza and Otto Porter. Ariza has played big minutes since being acquired by the Wizards and is currently projected for 38.5 on today’s slate. Porter is still coming off the bench and shouldn’t see as much playing time but has averaged a stout 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Both players are excellent values on DraftKings, where each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 97%.
Anthony Davis is expected to miss the next week or so for the Pelicans, which should result in a larger offensive role for Nikola Mirotic. He’s seen a usage bump of +2.9% with Davis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.14 FanDuel points per minute. He’s in a brutal spot vs. the Grizzlies, who have played at the slowest pace in the league, but he’s still underpriced at $6,100.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin is in an excellent spot today vs. the Washington Wizards. They rank eighth in pace, 25th in defensive efficiency and 29th in rebound rate this season, which makes them the perfect target for big men.
The Pistons will also be without Andre Drummond, and Griffin should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.1% and rebound rate by +3.2% with Drummond off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He scored 54.0 DraftKings points and posted a usage rate of 41.0% with Drummond out of the lineup in his last game and leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Value
There aren’t many appealing value options on today’s slates, but Harry Giles could be worth some consideration on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,600, giving him a Bargain Rating of 81%. He’s projected for only 17.5 minutes in our NBA Models but has averaged 1.13 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon is currently listed as questionable, but he’ll be in an excellent spot vs. the Atlanta Hawks if he’s able to suit up. The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league and rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, and Gordon has scored at least 34.3 FanDuel points in three of his past four games.
Wilson Chandler has a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on FanDuel and has posted a strong 90% Consistency Rating over the past month. He’s a low-risk option for cash games and would see a boost in value if either Butler or Embiid is ultimately ruled out.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic is in a great spot today vs. the Hawks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.13 on FanDuel. He’s crushed in good matchups this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.21 and a Consistency Rating of 77.3% on FanDuel. He would also see a boost in value if Gordon is unable to suit up: He’s seen a usage bump of +2.2 with Gordon off the court this season. He’s a particularly strong target on FanDuel, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Value
The center position is a great source of value today. It starts with Zaza Pachulia, who is priced at just $3,600 on FanDuel. He started in place of Drummond in the Pistons’ last game and ultimately tallied 28.9 FanDuel points in 35.5 minutes. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do a lot of damage today if he sees a comparable workload vs. the Wizards.
Ante Zizic is another possible option for the shorthanded Cavs. He’s slightly more expensive than Pachulia on FanDuel but is arguably an even better value given his Bargain Rating of 99%. He owns an elite Plus/Minus of +2.97 vs. the Cavs.
Both players are slightly more expensive on DraftKings but are still viable options.
Fast Break
DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most intriguing options on today’s slate. He scored 30.7 FanDuel points in his first game of the season despite playing just 15 minutes. He led the Warriors with a usage rate of 38.1% and seems like a safe investment at $5,100 on FanDuel. The biggest concern is his ceiling since his minutes are expected to be capped around 20.
Jarrett Allen and Willie Cauley-Stein will square off today in Brooklyn, and both options are strong values on DraftKings. Each player owns a Bargain Rating of at least 97%, and the Nets and Kings have both struggled against centers this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Pistons C Zaza Pachulia
Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
