The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker has been a disaster from a fantasy perspective recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.49 over his last 10 games on FanDuel. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,700 over that time frame, which could make him an interesting buy-low target on today’s slate. He has a decent matchup vs. the San Antonio Spurs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.55. His 11 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position.
Value
The Celtics are going to be without Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart for today’s matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets, which makes them a really appealing target for DFS purposes. It starts with Terry Rozier at the PG position, who is priced near the minimum across the industry. He’s started each game that Irving has missed this season, resulting in an average of 33.0 DraftKings points per game. He’s virtually impossible to fade at his current salary.
Fast Break
The Celtics are not the only shorthanded team worth targeting. The Spurs are still without Rudy Gay, and Marco Belinelli will join him on the sidelines for today’s contest vs. the Charlotte Hornets. Derrick White has seen a usage bump of +3.6% with both Gay and Belinelli off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.92 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also been an outstanding fantasy asset of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.31 over his last 10 games on DraftKings.
Reggie Jackson has posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, but he’s coming off 40 minutes of playing time in his most recent contest. He’s priced at just $4,800 and has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has huge upside if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time. He’s an interesting contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) in a difficult matchup vs. the Jazz.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Nothing can stop James Harden right now. He shot just 1-of-17 from 3-point range in his most recent contest – 1-of-17!!! – but still managed to rack up 75.25 DraftKings points. He played a whopping 43 minutes and posted a usage rate of 44.5%, and that combination is absolutely lethal for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +13.26 over his past 10 games on DraftKings despite carrying an astronomical salary.
Harden has actually seen a slight reduction in price today on DraftKings, and his current $12,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s in arguably the most difficult spot in fantasy vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, who play at the slowest pace in the league by a considerable margin. That said, the opposing team is 100% irrelevant for Harden at this point, and he torched the Grizzlies for 82.0 DraftKings points just two weeks ago. He’s the safest bet for cash games and owns the highest ceiling for GPPs as well.
Value
With Smart out today, Jaylen Brown should see a nice boost in playing time. He’s been a nice value when given the opportunity to play recently, averaging 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models, and his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell could be a little overlooked on today’s slate but has been fantastic recently. He’s started at PG in each of the past two games and has scored at least 54.2 FanDuel points in each of those contests. His 11 Pro trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
D’Angelo Russell looks like a strong value on DraftKings, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which trails the marks of only Harden and Lou Williams over the past month.
Small Forward
Stud
The SF position is the weakest on today’s slate, with Danilo Gallinari serving as the most-expensive option on FanDuel. He’s been pretty good recently, averaging 1.06 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s in an excellent spot today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. They rank 24th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Clippers’ implied team total of 121.0 points is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin.
Values
Royce O’Neale has stepped up for the shorthanded Jazz over their past two games, averaging 38 minutes and 33.6 FanDuel points per game. His salary has jumped up considerably for today’s matchup vs. the Pistons, but he’s still a strong value across the industry.
Davis Bertans has been a reliable option for the Spurs recently and should see a few additional minutes with Belinelli out of the lineup. He’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $3,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Fast Break
Gordon Hayward isn’t exactly a “stud” or a “value,” but he’s one of the strongest options at the position. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +7.9% in three games without Irving this season, resulting in an average of 36.75 DraftKings points per game. That translates to an average Plus/Minus of +13.9 on DraftKings.
The Rockets have had some of the worst injury luck in basketball this season. They’ve already been without Chris Paul and Eric Gordon, and now Clint Capela is expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks with a thumb injury. P.J. Tucker has already been playing a ton of minutes, but he has the potential to carry the largest workload on today’s slate. He’s currently projected for 40.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him a solid floor at just $4,400 on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis hasn’t been as good as Harden recently, but he’s been pretty darn close. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.43 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and has posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month. His average of 1.77 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is only slightly less than Harden’s mark, and his current minutes projection of 38 is the fourth-highest on the slate.
Unlike Harden, he’s in an absolutely elite spot today vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.10 on DraftKings, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 118.5 ranks second. Davis has averaged 63.5 DraftKings points in each of his first two games vs. the Clippers this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +5.92 (per the Trends tool). He’s a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $11,600 comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Derrick Favors could be in line for one of his largest workloads of the season today vs. the Pistons. He’s already been playing a few additional minutes recently given Utah’s current injury situation, and the Pistons are one of the few teams in the league that still play two traditional big men for the majority of the game. Favors has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage if he sees extended minutes in this contest. He’s priced at just $5,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
The Celtics have a pair of underpriced PFs on FanDuel in Marcus Morris (98% Bargain Rating) and Jayson Tatum (90% Bargain Rating). Morris has seen a usage bump of +4.3% in games without Irving this season, resulting in an average of 28.97 FanDuel points per game. Tatum has led the team with an average of 33 minutes in games without Irving and has averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Both players have seen large price decreases over the past month, which makes this the perfect opportunity to buy low on them.
If you’re looking to punt one of the PF spots on FanDuel, Harry Giles could be an interesting option. He’s not playing many minutes at the moment – he’s averaged just 18.25 over his past four games – but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests. He’s averaged 1.16 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has upside if he sees a few additional minutes today vs. the Blazers.
Center
Stud
Jusuf Nurkic has failed to return value in three of his past four games, which could make this the perfect time to buy low on him. His salary has decreased by $700 from its peak on FanDuel, and he’s in an elite spot today vs. the Sacramento Kings. They’ve been crushed by opposing centers all season, giving Nurkic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.47. He’s averaged 1.47 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark at the position by a considerable margin.
Value
Nene will likely be a popular value option today for the Rockets. He should move into the starting lineup in lieu of the injured Capela, and he’s priced at or near the minimum across the industry.
That said, the Rockets still have Marquese Chriss and recalled Isaiah Hartenstein from the G-League, so they do have some bodies at the center position. They probably don’t want to push Nene for much more than 20 minutes, which obviously caps his upside. He’s averaged just 0.72 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s far from a point-per-minute monster.
Fast Break
Al Horford has been slightly limited since returning to the Celtics lineup recently, but he did play more than 30 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him an appealing target vs. the Brooklyn Nets. They’ve given up big games in bunches to opposing centers this season, giving Horford an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.63 on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Pictured: Celtics PG Terry Rozier
Photo Credit: Paul Rutherford- USA Today Sports
