The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Don’t look now, but Trae Young is starting to figure things out. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.07 over his past 10 games on FanDuel and has scored at least 41.8 FanDuel points in four of his past five games. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the PG position.
Young in a nice spot today vs. the Washington Wizards, who rank tied for 23rd in defensive efficiency. Both of these teams have also played at a top-eight pace this season, and the resulting over/under of 232.5 points is the top mark on the slate. Young has a strong individual matchup as well, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.52, and his $7,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Value
The Spurs will be without Derrick White today, which could make them a nice source of value at the PG position. Bryn Forbes has been one of the biggest beneficiaries with White off the court this season, increasing his usage rate by +1.4% and averaging 0.75 DraftKings points per minute.
Patty Mills is also an intriguing option, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 85%. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Chris Paul is expected to return to the Rockets’ lineup tonight and offers a lot of value at just $6,600 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute since returning from injury three games ago and is coming off 30 minutes of playing time in his most recent contest. He also has one of the best matchups at the position vs. the Phoenix Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.97.
Corey Joseph has seen a nice boost in value after the injury to Victor Oladipo. He’s played at least 31 minutes in each of his past two games and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in both contests. The Pacers are in a great spot vs. the Pelicans, who rank sixth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is a really interesting option today. He has a great matchup vs. the Suns, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency. The Rockets’ resulting implied team total of 118.0 ranks third on the slate. Houston is also going to be without Eric Gordon, and Harden has increased his usage rate by +1.6% with Gordon off the court this season.
Unfortunately, Harden is the most expensive option on the slate by a considerable margin, and he doesn’t offer nearly the same upside with Paul back in the lineup. He scored “just” 58 DraftKings points in his last game with Paul in the lineup, and he’s averaged a mortal 1.29 DraftKings points per minute when sharing the court with Paul this season. Paul figures to earn more playing time as he gets further removed from his injury, so Harden seems overpriced at his current salary across the industry. He still offers the highest ceiling on the slate, but there are definitely better values available.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Mikal Bridges is one of the best values of the day on DraftKings at $4,400. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Bridges has scored at least 28.0 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. He’s seen a nice spike in playing time recently, playing at least 35 minutes in four straight games, and he’s averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal might be the top option to pay up for at the position. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Atlanta Hawks, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.96 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 48.06 fantasy points per game with Wall out of the lineup.
DeMar DeRozan is a strong buy-low target today vs. the Sacramento Kings. His salary has decreased by -$1,100 over the past month on FanDuel, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.53 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool). He’s also seen a team-high usage bump of +2.3% with White off the court.
Small Forward
Stud
The story has been the same for Giannis Antetokounmpo all season. He’s a monster on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged 1.75 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – but his inconsistent minutes make him tough to trust on a night-to-night basis. The Bucks have just been so dominant this season, ranking first in defensive efficiency and fifth in offensive efficiency, that they haven’t needed Giannis to play big minutes very often. He has big upside today vs. the Nets if he sees the high-end of his minute range, but he has downside as well.
Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Value
The Nuggets could be pretty shorthanded today vs. the Pistons. Gary Harris has already been ruled out, while Jamal Murray is listed as questionable. If both players are unavailable, Will Barton would become an attractive option on FanDuel. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.9% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.94 FanDuel points per minute. He’s priced at a discount at just $5,400 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
The Wizards are a team you’re probably going to want some exposure to today, and they have three appealing SF options on DraftKings. Of the trio, Trevor Ariza is projected for the most minutes and Otto Porter has averaged the most fantasy points per minute, but Jeff Green might be the best pure value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,900 and has averaged a solid 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
The Spurs have a few potential options to replace White in the starting lineup, but Davis Bertans might be the most intriguing. He’s been elite from 3-point range this season, shooting a ridiculous 47.1%, and he’s averaged 0.81 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s a nice value at $3,800.
Power Forward
Stud
John Collins hasn’t been a great fantasy option recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in eight of his past 10 games. That said, his salary has decreased by -$900 over the past month, and he’s coming off 58.2 FanDuel points in his most recent performance.
He’s in a potential smash spot today vs. the Washington Wizards, who have been crushed by opposing big men for most of the season. They rank just 29th in team rebound rate, which plays right into one of Collins’ biggest strengths. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.30 on FanDuel, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Paul Millsap is also questionable for the Nuggets today, and his absence would give Mason Plumlee a big boost in value. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and Plumlee would be a prime candidate to enter the starting lineup in his absence. He started 11 games next to Nikola Jokic when Millsap was forced to miss an extended period of time earlier this season and averaged 27.4 minutes per game over that time frame, which would make him an excellent value at $4,100 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis has seen a salary decrease of -$1,300 over the past month on DraftKings but is in an excellent spot today vs. the Pelicans. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.85 on DraftKings, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s a really interesting buy-low option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his projected ownership of 5-8%.
LaMarcus Aldridge has one of the best matchups at the position on DraftKings, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48 vs. the Kings. He’s a nice value at just $8,000 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Center
Stud
DeAndre Ayton returned from an injury in his last game and showed no ill effects, tallying 35.25 DraftKings points in 33 minutes. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Houston Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.52 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged a stout 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His salary has also decreased by -$1,000 over the past month, making him one of the best values of the day at $6,800 on DraftKings.
Value
Brook Lopez gets to take on the Nets tonight, making this a #RevengeGame. The Nets have also been shredded by opposing centers this season, giving Lopez a position-best Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.04 on DraftKings. Lopez has been a strong value recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.24 over his past 10 games, yet his salary has remained pretty stagnant over that time frame.
Fast Break
Myles Turner is in a great spot today vs. the Pelicans and has been an excellent contributor with Oladipo out of the lineup this season. He’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with Oladipo off the court, and Turner has played at least 31 minutes in each of his past two games.
Thomas Bryant has seen a reduction in playing time recently, but his salary has decreased by a whopping -$2,200 on FanDuel as a result. His current $4,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%, and he’s in a potential smash spot vs. the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve given up big games to opposing centers all season, giving Bryant an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.05 on FanDuel.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Hawks G Trae Young
Photo Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
