The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook has had a quiet start to the season by his lofty standards but has started to turn things around. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games and has increased his fantasy output to 1.58 DraftKings points per minute. He’s averaged a ridiculous 92% Consistency Rating over the past year, so he’s about as safe an investment as there is in daily fantasy basketball.
He appears to be in an excellent spot today vs. the Washington Wizards. Both of these teams rank in the top six in pace, so this should be one of the fastest games of the day. Washington has struggled to defend PGs this season, giving Westbrook an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.32. He remains affordable on DraftKings, where his $10,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
On the other side of the same matchup, John Wall might be an even better value on DraftKings at just $8,100. He has a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s historically posted a Plus/Minus of +6.10 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool). The Wizards are slight favorites in their matchup with the Thunder, and their implied team total of 117.5 ranks third on the slate.
Value
Donovan Mitchell will miss today’s contest vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, which should result in a few extra minutes for Dante Exum. Exum has averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute this season and has seen a usage bump of +2.8% with Mitchell off the court. He’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him an appealing target at a near-minimum salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio should also see a bump with Mitchell out of the lineup. He’s averaged only 29.4 minutes per game through his first seven games but should see well over 30 in today’s contest. That said, this game projects to be one of the worst of the day from a fantasy perspective: The 203.5 total is at least 8.5 points lower than every other game on the slate.
Frank Ntilikina has been playing big minutes for the Knicks recently, seeing at least 31 in four of his past five games. He’s not exactly a fantasy force when he’s on the floor – he’s averaged just 0.66 fantasy points per minute – but it’s hard to ignore that kind of playing time at $4,100 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
There are a bunch of strong SGs on today’s slate – five players own a salary of at least $8,100 on FanDuel – but Victor Oladipo appears to be in the best spot of the group. He’s taking on the Chicago Bulls, who have allowed the third-most points per 100 possessions this season. The Pacers’ implied team total of 109.75 doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but it does represent a slight increase compared to their scoring average. Oladipo has averaged 1.19 FanDuel points per minute and is the best pure value among the high-priced SGs on FanDuel: He’s the only option priced above $8,100 with a Bargain Rating greater than 9%.
Value
James Harden is not expected to return for tonight’s contest vs. the Nets, which means that Eric Gordon will likely draw another start. He’s struggled mightily to begin the season, averaging a Plus/Minus of -2.36 on FanDuel, but he remains highly involved in the offense. He’s actually averaging 16.3 shot attempts through his first six games, which is more than he averaged last season, but he’s made just 30.6% of his shots from the field and 23.4% of his shots from 3-point range. He seems due for positive regression, which makes this an excellent buy-low opportunity: He’s seen a salary decrease of $1,000 on FanDuel over his past two games. Gordon averaged 34.71 FanDuel points in nine games with Harden out of the lineup last season.
Fast Break
The Knicks have shown a commitment to playing their young players this season, which includes Damyean Dotson. He’s played at least 28 minutes in each of his past five games and has averaged a respectable 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. He’s one of the better value options on the slate at just $4,400 on DraftKings given his elite matchup vs. the Mavericks.
Bradley Beal has one of the more difficult individual matchups of the day vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -7.55 on DraftKings. That said, he’s simply too cheap at $7,000. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Beal has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.80 with a comparable salary over the past three seasons.
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Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant continues to score the ball at an extremely efficient rate to start the 2018-19 season. He’s averaged 27.8 points on just 18.9 shot attempts per game and is making 55.9% of his shots from the field and 92.0% from the free throw line. To put that in perspective, no one in the history of the league has ever averaged over 25 points per game while shooting at least 55% from the field and 90% from the free throw line. That combination of volume and efficiency is basically impossible for anyone but Durant.
Tonight’s game vs. the Timberwolves should also be a great one for fantasy purposes. The total has climbed all the way to 242.5 points, which is the highest mark since 2009. Durant has unsurprisingly been very effective in games with an over/under of at least 235 points, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.47 on DraftKings.
Value
T.J. Warren is expected to replace Ryan Anderson in the starting lineup for the Phoenix Suns, which makes him one of the easiest plays of the day on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season and is currently projected for 31 minutes of playing time. He does have a difficult matchup against the Toronto Raptors, but he’s impossible to ignore at just $5,400.
Fast Break
Joe Ingles might be one of the most underrated players in the league. He does a lot of the little things that don’t show up in the box score, but he has plenty of fantasy appeal as well: He’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season. He doesn’t figure to see much of a usage bump with Mitchell out of the lineup, but he could see a few additional minutes. He’s priced at a discount on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Stacking the Wizards could be a good idea on DraftKings. Otto Porter is another member of the team who seems underpriced at $5,400, and he’s coming off a 30.5-point fantasy performance against the Memphis Grizzlies. Today’s game vs. the Thunder should be much more fantasy friendly.
Power Forward
Stud
The stud options are pretty thin at the PF position on today’s slate. Draymond Green is the highest-priced PF on FanDuel, but he’s pretty affordable at just $6,900 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Draymond has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.47 with a comparable salary over the past three seasons. He’s coming off 49.0 DraftKings points in his most recent contest and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.44 on today’s slate.
Value
Jerami Grant has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games but remains affordable at $4,000 on DraftKings. He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Wizards, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +11.09, and is currently projected for just under 30 minutes of playing time in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Jabari Parker struggled in his first start of the season, scoring just 16.75 DraftKings points. That said, he did play 35.5 minutes, which bodes well for his long-term outlook. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $5,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Serge Ibaka has somewhat quietly put together a really nice season for the Toronto Raptors. He’s coming off back-to-back games with at least 40.1 FanDuel points and has a dream matchup today vs. the Phoenix Suns. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +14.91 on FanDuel, and the Raptors’ implied team total of 118.25 is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Center
Stud
Clint Capela struggled in his first game of the season but has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season and is averaging a career-best 32.7 minutes per game. Capela is currently projected for 34 minutes today vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who rank just 20th in rebound rate this season. He looks like a nice value on DraftKings, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
The Wendell Carter Jr. era is officially underway in Chicago. Injuries have forced the Bulls to play him bigger minutes recently, and he’s responded by scoring at least 31.0 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. He remains very affordable on DraftKings at just $5,000, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Myles Turner has not seen consistent playing time this season but has averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. He’s been priced down to just $6,000 on FanDuel, which gives him one of the best Bargain Ratings of the day at the position.
DeAndre Ayton leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in his rookie season. He’s failed to return salary-based expectations in each of his past two games but scored at least 43.5 DraftKings points in four of his first five games. His salary has decreased to just $7,000, which is basically as low as it’s been since opening night.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Russell Westbrook
Photo credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
